ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Wow, tropical storm warning issued all the way over to the Okaloosa/walton county line in NW Florida

Expected IMHO. I was surprised they didn't include y'all in the initial TS watch.

I thought the same earlier. The only caveat, if this does manage to really strengthen, impacts would move closer to the center. Good to see you here again Steve.

[Steve]

For sure man. I'd been holed up in Pensacola 6 days a week since March laying low. I thought about going back this weekend, but I decided to just stay in town and see how things play out. Some of the runs (I think CMC primarily) had the rain bullseye on Walton & Bay Counties but a second 10-12" spot in Escambia. Y'all stay safe if you're back from NV.

[tailgater]

Recon finding 50 + surface winds so far. SFMR

[Aric Dunn]

Recon finding 50 + surface winds so far

they are 21k feet.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Good thing is that the dry air will keep this in check some throughout its trip from Mexico to LA. Without the dry air, this most certainly would have reached hurricane status. It still may reach a minimum hurricane, but it could be much worse. Is this a preview of how terrible this season is going to be once the dry air and shear relax some? I sure hope not. This system has been vigorous, even over land.

[wx98]

Recon is approaching the center. Looking like maybe a NE-SW pass based on current plane position.

[tailgater]

Recon finding 50 + surface winds so far

they are 21k feet.

Yes probably off a good bit, those higher wind speeds are in the heavier rain bands

[aspen]

Please don’t tell me the barometer broke...

[GCANE]

Recon finding 50 + surface winds so far

they are 21k feet.

I think Miss Piggy is doing high altitude 10K' to 20K'.
AF308 is about to take off.

[cycloneye]

Note= There were problems with AF309 plane and now a new plane will fly AF308. Follow the recon thread for the obs.

[tolakram]

Glad it's June and not August.

SLIDER visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=4205.909088134766&y=6115.874755859375

IR
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=4205.909088134766&y=6115.818115234375

I'm not seeing multiple centers, just a big lumbering storm at the moment.

[GCANE]

Looks like its about to pull in moisture from the EPAC.
Mountains getting in the way.
Maybe as it moves north, it will.
If this was a hundred miles to the west, it would be firing on all 8 cylinders.

[PTrackerLA]

First round of 18z runs are in with NAM12k still wanting to landfall in SWLA but looking better than it has in a few days. It doesn't landfall for 63 hours so roughly 4am Monday morning. This is not a tropical model and though it sometimes outperforms, it's often way off in the tropics and subtropics.
https://i.imgur.com/vkp0Ucp.jpg

NAM3km makes a hard left at the LA Coast. It's still running.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0518&fh=55

The 3km NAM has been interesting today. I know it's not a tropical model but I recall it doing well with Harvey and Michael.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks so much Steve

Was catching up and caught your post, really only looking at 1 to 2 " here in south florida then, ride it out with the whiskey, be safe buddy

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think I've ever seen this forum so slow when there's a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Usually it's hard to keep up with the posts.

[Cuda]

I don't think I've ever seen this forum so slow when there's a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Usually it's hard to keep up with the posts.

There is a LOT going on in our country right now. I feel like Black Lives Matter movements and police brutality might be taking a lot of peoples energy and attention away from things that we normally like to watch as a hobby.

[MississippiWx]

I don't think I've ever seen this forum so slow when there's a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Usually it's hard to keep up with the posts.

There are not many posters here from Mississippi or Louisiana relative to Texas/FL.

Therefore, there isn’t as much interest.

[chaser1]

I don't think I've ever seen this forum so slow when there's a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Usually it's hard to keep up with the posts.

Probably "storm fatigue" I mean, this all started back on May 30 with Amanda (E.Pac), then us all following the "Ire of Gyre" around for days trying to figure out what or where another storm might be spit out, and THEN finally Cristobal. Now June 5 and we're finally going to see what this storm will do next. And we're still glossing over satellite loops, debating MLC points, watching models for the 3rd named storm of the year. JUNE 5??? This is gonna be one exhausting season

[Miami Storm Tracker]

So funny Chaser

But so very true I feel as if i have been tracking this for a couple of weeks .

[chaser1]

I don't think I've ever seen this forum so slow when there's a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Usually it's hard to keep up with the posts.

There are not many posters here from Mississippi or Louisiana relative to Texas/FL.

Therefore, there isn’t as much interest.

That's a really good point. With Cristobal heading up that way, you'd think there's be plenty of folks chiming in from Mobile and points west toward the upper Texas coast.