ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Aric Dunn]

18z euro weak broad and dry air all the way to landfall

[robbielyn]

18z euro weak broad and dry air all the way to landfall

Looking at it right now you can see thebdry air entrainment it's quite dry here in Hernando county. Rain was in South Florida but it's bone dry up this way it never materialized

[Steve]

18z euro weak broad and dry air all the way to landfall

Looking at it right now you can see thebdry air entrainment it's quite dry here in Hernando county. Rain was in South Florida but it's bone dry up this way it never materialized

robbielyn, if you have the access and get the chance to check, can you get the max rainfall totals and where they are? The dry scenario seems like a lot of 2-4" to the east, but I'm curious where the European is putting it.

[tarheelprogrammer]

18z euro weak broad and dry air all the way to landfall

GOM is like a desert and it makes sense that the 18z stays weak. This thing has ingested a ton of dry air and it is showing on IR.

[Steve]

18z euro weak broad and dry air all the way to landfall

GOM is like a desert and it makes sense that the 18z stays weak. This thing has ingested a ton of dry air and it is showing on IR.

See GCANE's post in the discussion thread. It's definitely dry, but maybe not as dry as it could be. Also, as MSwx pointed out, that mesoscale complex or boundaries from the trough or whatever are coming down. It's more energy to add to the mix. If you look at the WV and check out the NW Gulf, the upper levels have changed drastically since this morning. I'm assuming it will be similar in the mid-levels though obviously not super juicy. The whole west side of the Gulf was yellow this morning.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[robbielyn]

18z euro weak broad and dry air all the way to landfall

Looking at it right now you can see thebdry air entrainment it's quite dry here in Hernando county. Rain was in South Florida but it's bone dry up this way it never materialized

robbielyn, if you have the access and get the chance to check, can you get the max rainfall totals and where they are? The dry scenario seems like a lot of 2-4" to the east, but I'm curious where the European is putting it.

I'm sorry I don't hv access Maybe Aric can post that for u. My area 4-5" Appalach to PC on coast 5-8" south of me to port Charlotte 2-3" south of there 1-2". Butt that's not euro. I saw a map with these also on twitter

[TheProfessor]

I totally missed the HMON totally bombing this out after landfall once the storm hits the high latitudes. That'd be a heck of a storm.

[Steve]

I totally missed the HMON totally bombing this out after landfall once the storm hits the high latitudes. That'd be a heck of a storm.

960's so way deeper in the higher latitudes than the Gulf.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Zero rain today here in Miami, but gust winds.

[Steve]

NAM 3k shows why it does have some value. I think it was the last GFS that showed the heavy rain across Perry and toward Lake City and all. That setup shows up really well on the 3k regardless of what it otherwise comes up with.

Anyway, NAM 3k caught up with all the other models and looks to landfall at Grand Isle in 48 hours. Unlike prior runs, there is an inner core band that takes shape around landfall that looks to knock down a few trees. Look out SELA and southern MS if this happens.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=48

FWIW to Wisconsin, the NAM 12k shows it approaching and like Professor said about the HMON, much deeper north.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 60600&fh=0

[Steve]

Pretty tight blend between the 18/00z models on a hit in Terrebone Parish around Dulac/Dularge and all those areas.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhyd ... rm_display

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 0z

[Steve]

It’s a bit farther west than the consensus was a bit ago. Idk if it will hit or not. Monday it hit SETX which isn’t that bad considering. Tuesday 00z it hit Vermilion Bay which wouldn’t be considered bad 5 days out considering it’s maybe 100 miles if that. I’m sure it had some rogue runs and I’m not a big defender.

[Steve]

Here’s some more models that have run

Canadian shifted east to a landfall around Venice or Port Sulphur from the south. Most of the heaviest rain is focused on the FL Panhandle and southern GA. It moved the Perry corridor 50-100 miles west and now the foot of rain is Walton and Bay Counties and points north and east. Canadian has been the one model out of the globals that has been signaling the most rainfall. Who knows if that’s going to be right, but it’s something to remember for future storms if it ends up being right or completely off in terms of precipitation more so than if it hits the right target areas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=72

Icon is plausible. It has a burst at landfall smacking New Orleans, the MGC and St Tammany.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 60600&fh=6

[Hammy]

I have to say after looking at the cloud presentation forecast on the NAM it's amazing how well the GFS forecast this to play out like this on an almost consistent basis for 10-15 days beforehand.

[Steve]

HMON is wild. It’s the psyclone yclone cinnamon roll run with all the heavy rainfall far out in front of the storm. While that’s possible and maybe even probable, it’s not likely to be otherwise as devoid of rain. HWRF then EC then a good nights sleep so I can get it this weekend. Low cumulus clouds are starting to move in from the East so we are getting close.

[Steve]

HWRF at 48 is similar to the HMON. It hits grand isle with most of the rain in advance but with some mega dry slot between that and the core. MS and AL coasts get the worst of it with this model.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=48

[La Breeze]

Why are the models shifting more and more east? I thought that there was a high pressure to the east that would keep the storm north and then a turn to the northwest. Could it be that it emerged from the Yucatan further east than was expected initially? Just wondering...

[Steve]

Why are the models shifting more and more east? I thought that there was a high pressure to the east that would keep the storm north and then a turn to the northwest. Could it be that it emerged from the Yucatan further east than was expected initially? Just wondering...

I don't think they are overall. If you look at SFWMD or other favorite spaghetti plot site, the focus is on Terrebonne Bay or so.
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

[stormlover2013]

Euro shifted west