ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Pretty strange - horizontal bands moving to Fl west coast

This is very much in line with what Levi referred to as an almost warm frontal lifting mechanism extending east/west toward florida...although the whole thing looks oddly linear at present. some of this convection could scrape the west side of the peninsula late tonight

[crimi481]

Thanks Bella. "What a long strange trip its been" ...lol

[psyclone]

temps are only around 75 in the Tampa bay area with dewpoints only around the low 70's. those are rather cool temps by june standards and certainly by "tropical" standards. Tampa's dewpoint is only 68. that is certain to induce some lifting via upglide. Not surprisingly, the radar is blossoming with stratiform rain as the deep plume of moisture heads north..

[crimi481]

Looks like its splitting in 2. Very strange

[Steve]

Time to crash and hopefully I’ll be able to stay up for most of the next couple of days after I get up. Here’s what I got out of today - Cristobal perked up in the late afternoon and it’s doing it again about 1:30 (started around 1). Look to see if that repeats tomorrow and if it does, then Sunday around dark, it probably will be on the upswing again and lead to some pain with landfall and north of here.

[TheProfessor]

Vorticity continues to get stronger, but it still needs to bundle more. It's a bit stretched. Of course that could plague the storm all the way to the coast, but if it could bundle that energy, the storm could form a fairly healthy core. The center has been struggling to sustain convection, but there's been a nice burst just to the north so we'll see how that goes. I had some delicious Ramen today and a lot of carbs, so I'll be sleeping like a baby. See y'all in about 9 hours.

[KimmieLa]

Could be a similar track to Hurricane Gustav from 2008 (through Louisiana not the approach.) Cristobal will be much weaker, but if a core develops like a few models hint at, this radar could look similar.

It will never get as strong, but Gustav was the storm we feared more than Katrina. So glad it couldn't stack after the battle with Cuba. Could have been a real nightmare instead of a vacation in Austin and then days on end of generator powered portable fans as the power was out for a week and then off and on the next couple with Ike passing by to the South. Gustav was an interesting lesson, because we don't usually see that track. It proved that if you get caught in the northern eyewall of a storm going wnw or nw passing to your south, it can be pretty brutal. Plenty of reports here and people I talked to told me Baton Rouge was chaos for the couple hours they spent in the inner core.

Christobal is showing signs of juicing heading toward dmax. Tomorrow night's pulse will be more critical, but tonight should be interesting to be able to pick up on the timing and behavior now that it's back over the Gulf.

Here''s the white IR at night from the geocolor filter
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL032020

I'm in BTR and we heard large trees falling and transformers popping for several hours during Gustav. Hundreds of trees fell that day in the area. It gets a little scary when your house starts whistling and the big oak tree in your yard begins to sway. Had no electricity for 8-9 days, not fun. I would definitely leave if a CAT 2 or higher came that close again.

[OuterBanker]

Boy, it was a really bad week for a vacation in Cancun!

[GCANE]

Remarkably, dry air entrainment so far is not an issue.
Last night, recon dropsondes showed saturated air in the BOC from the surface to 500mb.
This morning, LL WV imagery shows the dry air being cut off from the core.
This is primarily due to the fact there is a deepening CAPE ridge SW of the CoC.
Its now up to 2500.
Cumulus are forming as air flows thru this and some intermittent convection is firing.
With the dryline convection firing on its periphery, this is acting like a tropical-wave protected pouch.
That CAPE ridge is the thing to watch. Its been hanging in there the last few days.

[NDG]

Recon is finding Cristobal a little stronger this morning. Pressure down to around 995mb
Peak flight level winds of 54 knots, far to the north of the CoC.

54 knots
(~ 62.1 mph)

[GCANE]

Warm-core thermal structure looking not too bad.

[GCANE]

54 knot peak flight-level winds in the strong convection.
Sampled at 843 mb, 4800'.
Rain rate at 25 mm/hr.

[NDG]

This is interesting, for some reason AF308's records from last night's missions are now coming in, it found some very strong winds at flight level.

URNT15 KNHC 061102
AF308 0503A CRISTOBAL HDOB 30 20200606
030930 2357N 08823W 8425 01527 0059 +151 +151 145059 068 036 047 00
031000 2358N 08822W 8419 01535 0067 +144 +144 150061 062 036 046 00
031030 2400N 08821W 8423 01532 0064 +143 +143 151061 062 032 016 00
031100 2401N 08820W 8430 01527 0065 +145 +145 153060 062 033 013 00
031130 2402N 08819W 8431 01526 0062 +149 +148 154061 064 033 010 00
031200 2403N 08817W 8436 01522 0060 +154 +147 153058 059 034 010 03
031230 2404N 08816W 8435 01523 0061 +152 +147 152059 060 031 008 00
031300 2406N 08815W 8433 01527 0062 +153 +146 151060 061 031 008 00
031330 2408N 08815W 8365 01578 0052 +148 +145 150060 061 030 009 00
031400 2410N 08814W 8158 01802 0056 +141 +115 150059 060 031 005 00
031430 2412N 08814W 7956 02015 0063 +124 +102 149057 058 029 006 00
031500 2414N 08814W 7786 02204 0058 +124 +091 147055 059 029 007 00
031530 2416N 08814W 7620 02384 0057 +116 +078 145055 055 027 003 00
031600 2418N 08813W 7414 02614 0062 +099 +073 144055 058 027 005 00
031630 2420N 08813W 7192 02869 0051 +096 +062 138047 051 025 004 00
031700 2422N 08813W 7007 03087 0049 +085 +053 139046 049 025 008 00
031730 2424N 08813W 6806 03331 0048 +073 +039 139044 048 027 006 00
031800 2426N 08813W 6642 03535 0044 +063 +027 140039 042 027 005 03
031830 2427N 08814W 6442 03782 0037 +050 +016 144036 038 031 006 00
031900 2428N 08816W 6220 04070 0032 +038 -006 150038 039 032 004 00

[NDG]

Very large and broad CoC, finding pressure now down to 994mb

[NDG]

Down to 993mb
CoC somewhere near 23.5W 90W

110330 2330N 09008W 8429 01439 9934 +198 +128 358003 004 021 000 00
110400 2329N 09006W 8428 01440 9933 +200 +126 336003 003 019 001 03
110430 2329N 09004W 8429 01438 9933 +199 +126 323002 003 020 000 00
110500 2329N 09002W 8432 01435 9931 +200 +126 146001 001 019 000 00
110530 2329N 09001W 8434 01432 9932 +200 +123 152002 002 019 000 00
110600 2328N 08959W 8428 01438 9933 +198 +127 200003 005 018 001 00
110630 2326N 08958W 8430 01437 9932 +196 +133 207007 008 019 001 00
110700 2325N 08957W 8429 01437 9931 +198 +132 221011 012 022 001 00
110730 2324N 08955W 8430 01438 9933 +196 +130 228016 018 022 000 00
110800 2323N 08954W 8429 01438 9931 +200 +129 230019 019 022 001 00

[GCANE]

993.1 mb
23.4N 89.9W

[NDG]

The weird thing is that the latest NHC discussion did not mentioned last night's AF308's flight level winds of 67 knots at 11:08 pm over the convection to the NE of the CoC over the area of convection.

67 knots
(~ 77.1 mph)


http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... 03.5-63-41

[GCANE]

29 knot surface winds just SE of the CoC

[GCANE]

The weird thing is that the latest NHC discussion did not mentioned last night's AF308's flight level winds of 67 knots at 11:08 pm over the convection to the east of the CoC.

67 knots
(~ 77.1 mph)


http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... 03.5-63-41

I don't like to second guess them, but their last discussion pointed out dry-air entrainment and shear but yet said it should slowly strengthen.

[JtSmarts]

With these pressure drops, a 75-80 mph 980-982 uglycane is a reasonable possibility before landfall. The storm doesn't have to be "classical" to be a cane.