ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks stacked, surface to 700mb.
500mb vort slightly SW of the surface low.

[NDG]

Looks stacked, surface to 700mb.
500mb vort slightly SW of the surface low.

Both GFS and Euro want to stack it all the way up to 300mb tomorrow afternoon, but tilted because of the southerly shear.

[GCANE]

Keeping any eye on 34 knot wind radii estimate based on ADT.

Currently
110nm in the NE quad
105nm in the SE quad

Watching if this tightens up.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1269230862421372932

[GCANE]

Pretty good jog west in the forecast track compared to 9 hrs ago.
Has implications for more strengthening.

Current:




9 hrs Ago:

[NDG]

First vis pic of Cristobal, L where they found the CoC, worst wx well north and east of the CoC.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1269237053813858304

[GCANE]

Convection picking up on the SW quad.
That feeder band, originating from the west Carib, is doing the trick.

[NDG]

Keeping any eye on 34 knot wind radii estimate based on ADT.

Currently
110nm in the NE quad
105nm in the SE quad

Watching if this tightens up.

https://i.imgur.com/v7l6PQi.gif

https://i.imgur.com/R0oSRYF.gif

https://i.imgur.com/SK9Ripz.png

That picture is way wrong, TS force winds extend way farther than that, around 200 miles to the north & east of it.

[NDG]

Official pressure down to 992mb

7:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 6
Location: 23.9°N 90.2°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[GCANE]

4C warm core measured at 5K'

[NDG]

Pretty good TS force winds to the east of the CoC and the recon is not even over the deep convection.

121200 2341N 08814W 8429 01495 0010 +176 +120 176044 045 039 001 00
121230 2343N 08814W 8430 01494 0012 +174 +125 177045 046 039 000 00
121300 2346N 08814W 8430 01493 0013 +170 +127 177045 045 040 000 00
121330 2348N 08813W 8428 01495 0013 +168 +125 174044 045 039 001 00
121400 2350N 08813W 8432 01490 0010 +170 +126 174044 044 037 001 00
121430 2352N 08813W 8435 01485 0010 +167 +131 173045 045 037 002 00
121500 2354N 08813W 8424 01496 0006 +174 +126 171045 046 037 002 00
121530 2357N 08813W 8432 01489 0007 +171 +126 171047 048 037 002 00
121600 2359N 08813W 8429 01490 0004 +174 +128 172049 049 036 002 00
121630 2401N 08813W 8428 01491 0006 +173 +130 169047 049 036 001 00

[NDG]

It actually has a well defined CoC on vis satellite, is just that the dry air is choking it right now.

[aspen]

There’s that comma shape Levi was predicting for the last few days. Either dry air will become fully ingested and prevent the storm from breaking 50 kt, or it’ll work to isolate a central moisture pocket and allow some more strengthening. The pressure has fallen further than I anticipated so maybe it could make a run at weak hurricane status if the situation with dry air works out in its favor.

[TallyTracker]

Rain is starting to fall here in Tallahassee. We’re under a flood watch with rain totals of 5-7 inches expected by Monday. I suspect some small coastal towns near here like St. Marks will see some inundation. It only takes a couple of feet of water rise to submerge the town. Our local NWS office has warned of submerged and collapsing roads as well.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like possibly a brief NNE jog for now.

[Buck]

By no means as powerful looking or trying to compare the potential impacts, but that comma shape reminds me of the 1993 storm of the century (or as my family refers to it—the blizzard of 93).

[wx98]

Second recon pass incoming. Pressure already down around 996-997 still several minutes out.

[tropicwatch]

Unbelievable, they get close to the center and it looks like they lost comms again.

[GCANE]

3 clusters of towers firing off.
The one to the SW of the CoC may try and pinch off the dry air.