ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Slight pressure rise:

10:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 6
Location: 24.2°N 90.1°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

NHC notes the lacking appearance of a “classic tropical cyclone”

Interesting they now show a pressure rise without any commnunication from the AF recon on the second pass.

They can still talk to the plane and get direct data needed.

[GCANE]

That picture is way wrong, TS force winds extend way farther than that, around 200 miles to the north & east of it.

https://i.imgur.com/AKef0q3.png

All estimates, except best track are below 100 nm.

https://i.imgur.com/eLikFII.gif

But the actual facts show that TS force winds extend further than that, pre-dawn this morning buoy 42001 was reporting TS force winds when Cristobal was around 200 miles away.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42001

Pulled back a good 10 knots since then

[NDG]

This is why windshear forecasts past 48-72 hrs are worthless.
Big difference in the windshear forecast now as Cristobal approaches the coast.

[GCANE]

That CAPE ridge keeps working its way over to the butt of the comma.
Looks like its going to plug it.

[NDG]

All estimates, except best track are below 100 nm.

https://i.imgur.com/eLikFII.gif

But the actual facts show that TS force winds extend further than that, pre-dawn this morning buoy 42001 was reporting TS force winds when Cristobal was around 200 miles away.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42001

Pulled back a good 10 knots since then

https://i.imgur.com/1Xdu4mi.png

Yes, that's because of the nature of the broad CoC with not much pressure gradient close to the CoC as confirmed by the recon earlier.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[gfsperpendicular]

Cristobal's shape is interesting to look at, more like a spiral than a comma at this point.

[aspen]

That CAPE ridge keeps working its way over to the butt of the comma.
Looks like its going to plug it.

https://i.imgur.com/4JgIPxl.png

https://i.imgur.com/pd7zLwW.jpg

How does a duck stuck in a wall relate to this in any way? Lol

[Kazmit]

Reminds me of Cindy 2017, although it still looks more tropical than that.

[Aric Dunn]

Cristobal's shape is interesting to look at, more like a spiral than a comma at this point.
https://i.imgur.com/0l6NAKV.jpg

This is the dance between the dry and moist air... will Christobal follow the Yellow or Red Brick Road ?

[xironman]

A bit of convection actually building neat the CoC, need to see if it persists.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1269296245115420675

[tolakram]

SLIDER visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=4302.926025390625&y=5963.9599609375

[TheProfessor]

This storm still has a lot to go if it wants a build a solid core. But it still has very strong vorticity that's fairly stacked. It also became less elongated between 9-12z so that could be the start of it tightening up, we'll see. Anyways, the storm already looks better than Barry, but that's not saying much.

[Steve]

This storm still has a lot to go if it wants a build a solid core. But it still has very strong vorticity that's fairly stacked. It also became less elongated between 9-12z so that could be the start of it tightening up, we'll see. Anyways, the storm already looks better than Barry, but that's not saying much.

Joe B said in his Saturday summary that optimal conditions are when it hits Arkansas. He also said that the EC product has high probability of 'Tropical' Storm in the Great Lakes.

[NDG]

Here's more of the recon flight data from earlier this morning, the pressure did rise during the morning.

[crimi481]

The overall structure is huge. The dry air stops the entire Gulf from filling in. Less destruction, a good thing

[cainjamin]

Recon has shown that the core has become tighter over the past 3 passes. Wouldn't be surprised to see the pressure start dropping slowly again, especially if it can continue to fire convection near the center.

[GCANE]

That CAPE ridge keeps working its way over to the butt of the comma.
Looks like its going to plug it.

https://i.imgur.com/4JgIPxl.png

https://i.imgur.com/pd7zLwW.jpg

How does a duck stuck in a wall relate to this in any way? Lol

I thought it was a white goose.

[wxman57]

Convection has weakened over the past 3-5 hours. Lots of dry air & shear to deal with. Very little low-level convergence, making it hard to develop a core. Not impossible, but hard.