ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

7pm advisory noted that potential for tornadoes in central Florida tonight then NE/NC Gulf Coast tomorrow. Heed those warnings.

[aspen]

Quite a lot of 50-55 kt flight level wind readings recorded by the AF306 plane in the SE quadrant of the storm, and while the plane is less than 1000 gpm up.

[Steve]

...

Hey Dylan, that was awesome. Packed with great graphics and sensibility as always. I’d encourage anyone on the Mississippi (and somewhat Alabama) Gulf Coast to watch this if you like the European. He’s got the wind graphics showing y’all’s max gusts into the 70’s. Lots of upper 50’s in and around New Orleans. That’s just one model but a superb report which I appreciated.

[hurricanehunter69]

check out the evolution of this storm on Mimic=TPW. It is definitely improving with every passing hour. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[johngaltfla]

Well the flood warnings are up for us. I'm not shocked since we had about 7" of rain from yesterday through 8 a.m. and easily another 4" fell today. Hopefully everyone it's path is ok and it passes through quickly.

[wxman57]

Quite a lot of 50-55 kt flight level wind readings recorded by the AF306 plane in the SE quadrant of the storm, and while the plane is less than 1000 gpm up.

No squalls in the region. SFMR 35 kts or less. I think that there is nothing to translate FL winds to the surface there.

Here's a sat pic with the crosshairs over the high FL wind area. Not much of a storm.

[cainjamin]

Centre sonde splashed down at 994 with winds at 21 knots. Pressure likely around 992.

[bella_may]

Really big feeder band has set up to the northeast of the center

[MississippiWx]

Quite a lot of 50-55 kt flight level wind readings recorded by the AF306 plane in the SE quadrant of the storm, and while the plane is less than 1000 gpm up.

No squalls in the region. SFMR 35 kts or less. I think that there is nothing to translate FL winds to the surface there.

Here's a sat pic with the crosshairs over the high FL wind area. Not much of a storm.

http://wxman57.com/images/Cristobal3.JPG

Yep. Need thunderstorms to get those winds to translate to the surface. Models insist convection will begin to develop near and over the center tomorrow. We will see. Lot of work left to do.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like they are starting to build over the center tonight.

[aspen]

Quite a lot of 50-55 kt flight level wind readings recorded by the AF306 plane in the SE quadrant of the storm, and while the plane is less than 1000 gpm up.

No squalls in the region. SFMR 35 kts or less. I think that there is nothing to translate FL winds to the surface there.

Here's a sat pic with the crosshairs over the high FL wind area. Not much of a storm.

http://wxman57.com/images/Cristobal3.JPG

Convection is already becoming somewhat more centralized, so it’s not in a terrible position. Just needs some more popping up overnight and in 12 hours it could be worthy of 50 kt.

[MississippiWx]

Looks like they are starting to build over the center tonight.

Yeah, while it’s not very strong convection, it’s still better than earlier. Might be a start.

[cainjamin]

Lots of popcorn convection with low winds forming around the CoC, but really not much in the way of any banding. Cristobal is so broad that I doubt there will be much time for him to tighten up enough to strengthen significantly before landfall.

[Nimbus]

As long as it gets over land fairly quickly shouldn't be too bad.
Recon isn't finding any big drop in surface pressure yet and the pressure gradient has been fairly broad.

[TheStormExpert]

At this point Cristobal might have peaked in intensity. Will likely make landfall as a weak-moderate so-called Tropical Storm if that’s what you want to call it.

[MGC]

Convection popping near the center.....fat lady hasn't sung yet?....MGC

[CrazyC83]

I think all the models had it basically steady in intensity until landfall. None really suggested it would strengthen - landfall was expected to be in the low 990s for pressure.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

At this point Cristobal might have peaked in intensity. Will likely make landfall as a weak-moderate so-called Tropical Storm if that’s what you want to call it.

Nah, the storm still has another 12-15 hours before landfall. Conditions are predicted to remain favorable from this point on for the center.

[bella_may]

Convection popping near the center.....fat lady hasn't sung yet?....MGC

Definitely firing

[floridasun78]

look se florida may get first rain band later tonight storms are in sw fl now moving east