ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

Apparently recon is going home after one center pass and an eastern swing. I haven’t seen much of anything to support 45 kts at the surface based on this. The higher FL winds to the SE of center seem to be in a place void of any deep convection.

[TheProfessor]

The core never could organize over water. The next thing to watch is how interacts with land. The CAM models have been showing some impressive banding form once the storm moves inland and off to the north, which is noted by WPC.

"On area of concern is the potential for more substantial
(differential) diurnal heating and stronger instability later
today given the breadth of Cristobal's circulation and some
entertainment of drier air in between main bands. This could lead
to a spike of hourly rainfall rates well over 2 inches, possibly
>3 inches. Also, the majority of the high-res CAMs depict
persistent inflow banding on the east and eventually southeast
sector of Cristobal's path, leading to the potential of
persistent, training convection across the Moderate and especially
High Risk areas of eastern LA and southern MS tonight into Monday
morning as the center of Cristobal passes to the north."

If the CAMs are right it wouldn't surprise me to see some areas get 7-12+" of rain under these bands.

[northjaxpro]

New Orleans Lakefront Airport just reported NE wind 41 mph gusts in heavy rain bands moving through there now. 1000 mb pressure.

Watch out for quick spawning tornadoes today all along the Gulf Coast. This will be a very significant threat, as is the case always with all approaching or landfalling tropical cyclones, with the CoC approaching the region. Orlando had two warnings last night, and a confirmed tornado on video, which touched down on Downtown Orlando last night.

[Steve]

New Orleans Lakefront Airport just reported NE wind 41 mph gusts in heavy rain bands moving through there now. 1000 mb pressure.

Watch out for quick spawning tornadoes today all along the Gulf Coast. This will be a very significant threat, as is the case always with all approaching or landfalling tropical cyclones, with the CoC approaching the region. Orlando had two warnings last night, and a confirmed tornado on video, which touched down on Downtown Orlando last night.

Yeah Jax. Y’all stay safe over there too. 20+ Gusts, light rain here. Really a cool looking storm for early June. I’m glad it emerged damaged from Mexico and also glad it’s not 200 miles south of where it is.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[wxman57]

My hunch is this will be a system that comes together a little better as it interacts with land. Often these broad systems tighten up due to land friction. I don’t think it will strengthen much more, but the tightening could help stronger thunderstorms develop to transport the higher winds to the surface.

I think it will be a lot stronger across the Great Lakes, as an ET storm.

[Steve]

My hunch is this will be a system that comes together a little better as it interacts with land. Often these broad systems tighten up due to land friction. I don’t think it will strengthen much more, but the tightening could help stronger thunderstorms develop to transport the higher winds to the surface.

I think it will be a lot stronger across the Great Lakes, as an ET storm.

Yeah wx57. Even the NHC mentioned it even though they usually refer that out to the HPC or local NWS offices. You don’t wonder if we can’t track this up through Iowa or manybe even farther north into WI, MI or even Ontario.

[facemane]

Breezy nothing major here in Biloxi lots of rain got our first tornado warning radar implied.It looks by satellite that the storm is tightening up some due to land interaction since what it looked like a few hours ago looking more tropical.The system still looks to more of a rain event than anything. Kevin

I had to call out for work. Biblial rains have flooded my only way out.

[wx98]

Steady Freddie:

10:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 7
Location: 28.7°N 90.0°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[tailgater]

I’m inland a good bit, west of the tidal lakes. We have been really quiet here, gust to maybe 20 mph if you can call that a gust and less than a half inch, so far so good. It seems to have stalled for a bit maybe starting its nnw turn. Move on Cristobal things to do places to go....

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1269647820522491904

[Gums]

Salute!

No big deal over in western Panhandle. Wind just now moving to SE versus east. Break in clouds showed no high alt outflow, and we usually see that a day or two before a system heads into LA, MS or Mobile. Winds "fresh" and I wouldn't sail in the normal regatta we have each Sunday on Choctaw Bay.

I got a kick outta Face's post:

Code: Select all

I had to call out for work. Biblial rains have flooded my only way out.

The rule, face, is if the animals are lining up two by two on your driveway, then it's already too late to build the Ark. We have seen many rain events here, limited flooding on limited streets and mostly creeks rising, but our topography is not like that of south AL or MS, and especially all of south LA. Hell, our runway for the airport is 85 feet MSL and east end is a half a mile from the bay. My place is also a half a mile from a bayou and we are 65 - 70 feet. Only the asteroid and 500 foot tsunami will get us, IMHO.
======
Will check the bay once more late afternoon, but water is still not higher than a normal front's wind would do.

Gums sends....

[ConvergenceZone]

I was really confused when I heard about the landfall almost happening, as I thought they said previously that landfall wasn't expected until Sunday Night. The storm must have really sped up.


So very glad that it's not amounting to much though, hence the slow storm thread ............It will be interesting to watch what develops next.... Gonna be a busy season!

[drezee]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KVOA
Elevated station in that new band to the East
50Kts sustained and gusted to 55Kts

[Steve]

I was really confused when I heard about the landfall almost happening, as I thought they said previously that landfall wasn't expected until Sunday Night. The storm must have really sped up.


So very glad that it's not amounting to much though, hence the slow storm thread ............It will be interesting to watch what develops next.... Gonna be a busy season!

Looks like 100 miles or so to go. Still raining here but maybe only 2” or so. Hoping we don’t get trains here the next 5-6 hours (then again maybe I am)

[ConvergenceZone]

I was really confused when I heard about the landfall almost happening, as I thought they said previously that landfall wasn't expected until Sunday Night. The storm must have really sped up.


So very glad that it's not amounting to much though, hence the slow storm thread ............It will be interesting to watch what develops next.... Gonna be a busy season!

Looks like 100 miles or so to go. Still raining here but maybe only 2” or so. Hoping we don’t get trains here the next 5-6 hours (then again maybe I am)

yea, hope any major flooding stays away, because I hear that some of those places are in a moderate drought, so the rain will be beneficial in the end....

[wxman57]

Big open center with a couple of swirls rotating around. TS winds west and east on the perimeter. Not much in the way of wind across SE LA with the exception of Lakefront Airport, which is reporting TS wind gusts. It's right on the lake (i.e. "Lakefront") with the wind blowing across Pontchartrain right into the airport. No reduction over land.

[northjaxpro]

Well, this is a classic example of a lopsided tropical cyclone , with the most significant impacts being felt hundreds of miles far away from Cristobal's CoC. For the moment, the rain has subsided temporarily for me to measure the gauge and it now reads just under 6.75 inches of rainfall total at my home station thus far, all within the past 12 hours.

As a matter of fact I received in that last large heavy wave of rain that just passed through just over 2.5 inches of rainfall in less than an hour! Torrential tropical downpours with these bands , and even some bouts of lightning with them as well. Cristobal is really drenching us here in Jacksonville area and Northeast Florida.

There have been flash floodng reports all throughout the Jacksonville area as apparently 5-7 inches of rainfall as been fairly uniforrmed across the metro area.

Looking at NWS radar, we have more heavy rain lifting north toward the Northeast Florida area guaranteed for us. We probably will see NWS issue flood advisories , especially for our flood proned low lying areas along the St. Johns River and its associated tributaries, such as Black Creek in Clay County just o the southwest of Jax.

[Aric Dunn]

Well, this is a classic example of a lopsided tropical cyclone , with the most significant impacts being felt hundreds of miles far away from Cristobal's CoC. For the moment, the rain has subsided temporarily for me to measure the gauge and it now reads just under 6.75 inches of rainfall total at my home station thus far, all within the past 12 hours.

As a matter of fact I received in that last large heavy wave of rain that just passed through just over 2.5 inches of rainfall in less than an hour! Torrential tropical downpours with these bands , and even some bouts of lightning with them as well. Cristobal is really drenching us here in Jackdonville area and Northeast Florida.

There have been flash floodng reports all throughout the Jacksonville area as apparently 5-7 inches of rainfall as been fairly uniforrmed across the metro area.

Looking at NWS radar, we have more heavy rain lifting north toward the Northeast Florida area guaranteed for us. We probably will see NWS issue flood advisories , especially for our flood proned low lying areas along the St. Johns River and its associated ttibitsties such as Black Creek in Clay County just o the southwest of Jax.

little peaks of sun around tampa and south florida will likely drive heavier convection that will also lift north through central florida and into north florida later..

[psyclone]

Probably the best chance for this system to cause chaos will be after landfall and if one or 2 long mega feederbands set up and train over an area inducing flooding rains. that sometimes happens...these systems almost act alive and try to tether themselves to their fuel source. it will be interesting to see what the radar looks like when the system is 50 or 100 miles inland.

[psyclone]

Broad slack system once again proves "solid foundation but low ceiling" tendency of such configurations. they tend to be rather steady state. Sun breaking through here and breezy. mid to upper 70's dewpoints and temps shooting into the 80's...it won't take much to induce some heavy showers. but at least for now it has stopped raining. Florida has plenty of prime swamp land. and this is why.