2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro showing some hints this run as well. have to see how many ensemble members develop something.

[setxweathergal64]

It’s only June 7th, and not only have we had 3 named storms, but the models are hinting at up to two more forming in the next 10 days. This is going to be a really long season, isn’t it?

Do you live along the Gulf coast? Honestly I think every state along the Gulf will be hit this year. Louisiana is already crossed off the list.

I would hope you would be right. But in 2005, Louisiana was hit 3 times. Cindy, Katrina, and Rita.

Rita hit Louisiana too? I'm in Bmt Tx area and we had what I thought was a direct hit. We even had to evacuate.

[sma10]

12z euro showing some hints this run as well. have to see how many ensemble members develop something.

Was just going to mention that Euro has only a ghost of a mention of this system. Will have to see what EPS shows

[cajungal]

Do you live along the Gulf coast? Honestly I think every state along the Gulf will be hit this year. Louisiana is already crossed off the list.

I would hope you would be right. But in 2005, Louisiana was hit 3 times. Cindy, Katrina, and Rita.

Rita hit Louisiana too? I'm in Bmt Tx area and we had what I thought was a direct hit. We even had to evacuate.

It hit Louisiana/tx state line. I was 200 miles to the East. We still got very strong squalls. Below Houma, levees broke and flooded homes

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely needs to be watched.

12z EPS showing more members but different tracks than the 00z.

[Kingarabian]

Definitely needs to be watched.

12z EPS showing more members but different tracks than the 00z.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/fvnwgCY/29617319.gif[url]

The fact that there's an early consensus that this won't be crashing into CA or making it into the EPAC means it's time to start watching.

[CyclonicFury]

This one likely won't have any help from a CCKW or the MJO though. But the GEFS does show favorable shear over the NW Caribbean.

[Kingarabian]

This one likely won't have any help from a CCKW or the MJO though. But the GEFS does show favorable shear over the NW Caribbean.

Per the Euro, the background Atlantic state is conducive with plenty of rising motion through the end of June.

[WeatherEmperor]

This one likely won't have any help from a CCKW or the MJO though. But the GEFS does show favorable shear over the NW Caribbean.

Per the Euro, the background Atlantic state is conducive with plenty of rising motion through the end of June.

There are very few EPS members showing development and those that do are mostly week. What is your confidence level something will develop there??


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[Kingarabian]

This one likely won't have any help from a CCKW or the MJO though. But the GEFS does show favorable shear over the NW Caribbean.

Per the Euro, the background Atlantic state is conducive with plenty of rising motion through the end of June.

There are very few EPS members showing development and those that do are mostly week. What is your confidence level something will develop there??


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Pre-TC genesis is always a process. Especially when it's like 10 days out. So it will take time for models to get a grasp and it is normal to see them drop or develop a disturbance. Clues to watch for, is whether this runs into CA or not, and if there is going to be development is the time frame decreasing or not.

[SFLcane]

Interesting eps picking up on it.

Edit: not a great signal just 2 members actually showing tc’s

[Shell Mound]

Definitely needs to be watched.

12z EPS showing more members but different tracks than the 00z.

https://i.ibb.co/fvnwgCY/29617319.gif

Also note the very long-range hints at activity in the MDR by the latter third of June.

[Aric Dunn]

This one likely won't have any help from a CCKW or the MJO though. But the GEFS does show favorable shear over the NW Caribbean.

Per the Euro, the background Atlantic state is conducive with plenty of rising motion through the end of June.

There are very few EPS members showing development and those that do are mostly week. What is your confidence level something will develop there??


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Many times, that is how it starts. just a few members then it grows over time. the confidence is that GFS, EURO, ICON all are showing something that needs to be watched ...

Convection begins to build in the SW carrib in as little as 72 hours.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS rolling. So far through 72 hours it's not tucked that far in the SW Caribbean as it was on the 12z GFS.

Here is the trend for the past 2 GFS runs + the 18z run:


Early on if it can consolidate and lift before crashing into CA there's a pretty good shot for development. Eventually with more development it lifts further north.



Looks like a lot more land interaction on this run keeps a lid on it compared to the 12z run. Still a long way out so there will be plenty of changes.

[aspen]

300+ hr Fantasy Land GFS want two simultaneous TCs, one in the Gulf and the other near Bermuda.

[Jagno]

Do you live along the Gulf coast? Honestly I think every state along the Gulf will be hit this year. Louisiana is already crossed off the list.

I would hope you would be right. But in 2005, Louisiana was hit 3 times. Cindy, Katrina, and Rita.

Rita hit Louisiana too? I'm in Bmt Tx area and we had what I thought was a direct hit. We even had to evacuate.

I live in SW Louisiana and lost my home in Rita.

[cajungal]

I would hope you would be right. But in 2005, Louisiana was hit 3 times. Cindy, Katrina, and Rita.

Rita hit Louisiana too? I'm in Bmt Tx area and we had what I thought was a direct hit. We even had to evacuate.

I live in SW Louisiana and lost my home in Rita.

so sorry

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I know it is way out in time, but don't like the change in track on the 12- Z

[toad strangler]

I know it is way out in time, but don't like the change in track on the 12- Z

Change in track on 12z what?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Figure of speech Lol, not really a track but the direction that a storm could go if it develops