ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[slamdaddy]

Barometer reads 997.8mb...wind gust 35mph...total rainfall since midnight 5.11. this is from jackson county, ms (gautier, ms)

[Steve]

Barometer reads 997.8mb...wind gust 35mph...total rainfall since midnight 5.11. this is from jackson county, ms (gautier, ms)

yo slam, looks like a blowup offshore headed your way.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[FixySLN]

Barometer reads 997.8mb...wind gust 35mph...total rainfall since midnight 5.11. this is from jackson county, ms (gautier, ms)

yo slam, looks like a blowup offshore headed your way.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

Peep Mexico...wtf is that? Also, heya Slam, from Ocean Springs.

[wx98]

Looking at radar, the low-level swirl has started moving NE over eastern Lake Borgne toward Slidell. It appears to be rotating around the true center which is halfway between there and New Orleans.

[slamdaddy]

Lots O rain here for sure. Pressure at 997.8. Just ridin it out till its done. Bayou Castelle, is a flooding, nothing major.

[Steve]

Barometer reads 997.8mb...wind gust 35mph...total rainfall since midnight 5.11. this is from jackson county, ms (gautier, ms)

yo slam, looks like a blowup offshore headed your way.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

Peep Mexico...wtf is that? Also, heya Slam, from Ocean Springs.

Zoom to the MS Coastline and look at the angle to Gautier/Jackson Co.

[drezee]

Mobile AL reported a sustained east wind of 38 mph at the top of the hour with gusts to 49 mph. That's as close to sustained TS winds as we've seen so far on land.

Those are 2-min sustained winds. NHC uses 1-min winds.. That would be considered 1-min sustained TS winds.

[Ivanhater]

I was not expecting this strong band in Pensacola tonight, with power outages. Cristobal must have come in further east than forecast

[MidnightRain]

I was not expecting this strong band in Pensacola tonight, with power outages. Cristobal must have come in further east than forecast

For a 50mph TS 100 miles west of here, this has been impressive. Felt more like a direct hit. Goes to show how big the wind field is.

[Gums]

Salute!

Yeah, Ivan and Midnight, last band is still gonna hit PNS harder than over here. Surprised us too, especially with a good band coming thru over here middle of last night. Then mainly stiff wind all day.

MS coast looks to have it the worst so far, but they'll do just fine, considering their past experience with these things.

Gotta log, so seeya next storm. Out.

Gums sends...

[Janie2006]

Mobile AL reported a sustained east wind of 38 mph at the top of the hour with gusts to 49 mph. That's as close to sustained TS winds as we've seen so far on land.

In the 7 PM CDT intermediate advisory, the NHC stated that Dauphin Island reported a sustained wind of 45 mph and a gust of 49 mph. Obviously an island is not the same as a continental land mass, but it's something.

That’s where we’d expect to see stronger winds because there’s no land friction....wind coming in straight off the Gulf.

Meanwhile, Mobtown (some call it “Mobile”) has been getting slammed with these squalls over the last hour or two.

[wx98]

If anyone is still around, Cristobal has crossed Lake Pontchartrain as the long awaited NNW turn has commenced. It did come in probably 50-75 miles east of the expected track, which was west of New Orleans. Expect a slow wind down over the next day or so as it moves northward.

[Janie2006]

KMOB reporting wind gusts of 56 mph at Brookley Field (Downtown Mobile) and 46 mph at Mobile Regional Airport (actual location of the NWS office).

https://twitter.com/nwsmobile/status/12 ... 08832?s=21

Rain amounts from 4-6 inches being reported in Mobile County right now.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

If anyone is still around, Cristobal has crossed Lake Pontchartrain as the long awaited NNW turn has commenced. It did come in probably 50-75 miles east of the expected track, which was west of New Orleans. Expect a slow wind down over the next day or so as it moves northward.

It also did it a little later than the European model in particular anticipated. Glad this wasn't a monster coming in with concentrated winds in the core, where the central position would've mattered much more. Still feel for all communities affected by this thing (and the possibility of it causing a minor tornado event near the Great Lakes as an EC).

On a different note, it seems like Cristobal is basically tracking the Mississippi northward until the Ohio River starts, which I found a bit interesting.

[mrbagyo]

Storm Surge in Bay St. Louis

 https://twitter.com/PMBreakingNews/status/1269757205139595264

[Jag95]

KMOB reporting wind gusts of 56 mph at Brookley Field (Downtown Mobile) and 46 mph at Mobile Regional Airport (actual location of the NWS office).

https://twitter.com/nwsmobile/status/12 ... 08832?s=21

Rain amounts from 4-6 inches being reported in Mobile County right now.

Yeah, we're getting some very beneficial rains out of this. That last band got my attention, but it looks like that might be the worst of it here.

[TallyTracker]

I noticed the NHC is still issuing advisories even though Cristobal is now a depression. Is it due to the storm surge advisories still in effect?

[Buck]

I noticed the NHC is still issuing advisories even though Cristobal is now a depression. Is it due to the storm surge advisories still in effect?

Likely yes

[Frank P]

My assessment of the NHC performance regarding their Christobal projections for my area: (Just my humble opinion only)

Forecast track: B+ (targeted landfall for several days was the Vermillion Bay area, then that shifted eastward over time)
Forecast Intensity: A+ (NHC forecasted TS winds 50 gust to 60mph, GPT harbor recorded winds 52 with gusts to 61mph at 4:44 pm)
Surge Forecast: F (NHC forecasted surge 3-5 feet, MS coast saw 7.42 feet at BSL and my area in Biloxi 7 feet) definitely needs improvement
Forecast Wind field: B+ (NHC forecasted winds along the MS/AL coastal areas were mostly as projected)
Forecast Wind field my area: A+ (See above)
Forecast Land fall Time: B+ (NHC forecasted landfall Sunday evening or early Monday morning, landfall was 5:00 pm Sunday afternoon)
NHC OVERALL: B+ Still better than any other forecasts I saw from various sources... again my opinion and this is for the coastal MS areas..

Obviously areas to the west of me on the LA coast and inland that were expecting more wind and surge and received less will have a different opinion, and rightfully so... cheers

[FixySLN]

Hey team,

Still getting gusts and heavy rain in SSE MS. A lot of the roads on the coast are impassible. Power flickered a few times but has largely stayed on in our area. Any plots next to small bodies of water or directly on the beach have been rendered impassible. After I get some work done, I'm going to try and take the truck out for a bit and get some shots oh my immediate and safer area.