2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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GCANE
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#361 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:40 pm

floridasun78 wrote:so gfs want be active models of season it told us about Cristobal now want show some thing in sw carribbean


First one to ID Arthur as well.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#362 Postby aspen » Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:01 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: Remains weak. It's likely we'll see a disturbance or two emerge from the WCaribb. That's a stark difference from prior years as its been a graveyard for TC's for most of the past decade.

Given the OHC in the WCAB, that is concerning

If this AEW/potential system were to get itself together, track through the western Caribbean’s high OHC pocket, and find itself in an area similarly favorable to Cristobal before its first landfall, I think it would have a good chance of becoming the first hurricane of the year. That’s if it is able to develop, though.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#364 Postby GCANE » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:59 pm

As far as Earth Nullschool takes this out, i.e. 6/13

it shows an AEW at 47W.

One AWB NE of Hawaii, another over a good portion of Mexico.
The Hawaii one is the one currently east of Japan.
The AWB over Mexico will likely interact with AEW in the west Carib.
The AWB NE of Hawaii will likely be the one interacting with the MDR AEW later.


Image

Image

Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#365 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:26 pm

12z Euro is on board showing a disturbance (disturbances?) emerging from the WCaribb.
Image

One thing models seems to be unanimously agreeing is the steering, in that it will likely be lifted north no matter the strength of the disturbance.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#366 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:00 pm

Situations like this typically have high chances of development. large areas of convection in the western carrib the fester for days.. I mean how many times have we seen the GFS sniff these things out.. just ot have the Euro jump on later.

GFS typically fails in overall track forecasting but it shure is good at sniffing out long range condusive set ups..

and the fact that, even though weak, the euro does show something.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#367 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:50 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Situations like this typically have high chances of development. large areas of convection in the western carrib the fester for days.. I mean how many times have we seen the GFS sniff these things out.. just ot have the Euro jump on later.

GFS typically fails in overall track forecasting but it shure is good at sniffing out long range condusive set ups..

and the fact that, even though weak, the euro does show something.


So many folks tend to lose sight on how well the GFS has performed through the years, in not only sniffing out early season development from large CA gyres, but a decent job modeling early season tropical cyclones , especially when they emerge into the Gulf of Mexico or off the Southeast U.S. Atlantic Coast. The GFS continues to do this very well, as we have clearly seen with this season's named storms. This time of the year, I usually rely on what the GFS indicates in my analysis in monitoring the tropics, especially in the Carinbean and the GOM.. Generally most times, the EURO eventually most of the time falls in line with it as the end result from those regions of the basin!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#368 Postby Blinhart » Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:02 pm

GCANE wrote:As far as Earth Nullschool takes this out, i.e. 6/13

it shows an AEW at 47W.

One AWB NE of Hawaii, another over a good portion of Mexico.
The Hawaii one is the one currently east of Japan.
The AWB over Mexico will likely interact with AEW in the west Carib.
The AWB NE of Hawaii will likely be the one interacting with the MDR AEW later.


https://i.imgur.com/6iV3E0t.png

https://i.imgur.com/VjMKnTH.png

https://i.imgur.com/iQbMDXX.png



I've never seen these and completely confused
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#369 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:20 pm

18z GFS trending stronger despite more land interaction:
Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#370 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:35 pm

Hanging around north of the Honduras due to weak steering currents:
Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#371 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:47 pm

Well I take back my previous comment lol about the lack of ridging agreement. GFS crashes this into CA on this run.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#372 Postby aspen » Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:07 pm

Even though this run takes the system into CA, the GFS has been predicting a decent TC within the 10-day time framed and the precursor could form as early as this Sunday.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#373 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:20 pm

aspen wrote:Even though this run takes the system into CA, the GFS has been predicting a decent TC within the 10-day time framed and the precursor could form as early as this Sunday.

Yeah for sure it's going to be a lot of model watching on this one.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#374 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:02 am

Blinhart wrote:
GCANE wrote:As far as Earth Nullschool takes this out, i.e. 6/13

it shows an AEW at 47W.

One AWB NE of Hawaii, another over a good portion of Mexico.
The Hawaii one is the one currently east of Japan.
The AWB over Mexico will likely interact with AEW in the west Carib.
The AWB NE of Hawaii will likely be the one interacting with the MDR AEW later.


https://i.imgur.com/6iV3E0t.png

https://i.imgur.com/VjMKnTH.png

https://i.imgur.com/iQbMDXX.png



I've never seen these and completely confused



First one is a tropical wave (AEW). This is at the 700mb level. Notice the kink in the winds.
Tropical waves move from east to west.

Next two are at 250 mb.
The trofs are Rossby waves, commonly called the Jet stream.
East of the bottom of the trofs are anticyclones.
An anticyclone associated with the Rossby wave trof is called an Anticyclone Wave Break (AWB).
Rossby waves move from west to east.

When an anticyclone gets over a tropical wave, or other forms of low-level vorticity, chance for tropical-cyclone genesis increases.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#375 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:23 am

00Z GFS shows interaction at 144 hrs.
The AWB appears not as vigorous and hence no development.
Waiting to see what 06Z run shows.

Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#376 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:34 am

The anticyclone sets up really well at 156hrs in the Carib.
However the wave is moving faster and is offshore of Honduras.
The wave needs to slow down for this to work or the anticyclone needs to setup faster.

Image

Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#377 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:38 am

we may not see any thing nw carribbean some time gfs over do it time will tell (( i look at last gfs 06z run it dont any thing in nw carribbean next weekend))
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#378 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:28 pm

Coming back on the 12Z run

Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#379 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:04 pm

The one thing we can take from the gfs and Euro is a robust wave train which is only going to get more robust as we move on in time
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#380 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:58 pm

Not much from the 12z suite. Models now favoring the EPAC for near future development.
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