2020 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

I don't see what the NHC is thinking frankly but I haven't looked at ensembles recently.

[Kingarabian]

Model support disappearing. I mean if this was warm-neutral year I would be more bullish but it's not.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF shows not even a hint now.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: 12z ECMWF shows not even a hint now.

EPS still likes it though. Probably why the NHC has nearly moderate odds of development.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: 12z ECMWF shows not even a hint now.

EPS still likes it though. Probably why the NHC has nearly moderate odds of development.
https://i.imgur.com/tOC7j5z.png

It's probably worthy of a 0/20 then given even in a quiet seasons unexpected mischief still occasionally occurs especially near 10-12N.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure may form well south or south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula over the
weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to
be only marginally conducive, and any development should be slow to
occur thereafter while the system moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

[Kingarabian]

Past 4 GFS runs trying to bring the EPAC storm train back (it was MIA during 2019).

[Yellow Evan]

While I could see an uptick around June 20, I don't trust the GFS long range too much though worth noting.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121117
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure may form well south or south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula over the
weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions are expected
to be only marginally conducive, and any development of this system
should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$

[cycloneye]

Taken out.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown
NNNN

[CyclonicFury]

Just as NHC drops it from the TWO the ECMWF picks it back up.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS is now void of any EPAC development while the 12z Euro flips the switch back on.

[Kingarabian]

EPS really liking the EPAC right now with strong support for 2-3 systems to develop before the end of June. Two of these systems track generally west and could be big ACE gainers. Let's see if this happens.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1271585503272472581




Historically these types of outbursts span a good 3 systems.

[Yellow Evan]

At least the GFS isn't expecting the surge to be CCKW/MJO induced which is very interesting. Has a CCKW developing in the WPAC at the end of the timeframe which could hypothetically give the EPAC a surge into early July.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF backed off some but still has 2 systems by day 10.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS has 3 storms popping up around day 8-10 now.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro pushing back the development of three systems closer to the 9-10 day frame. Also has weaker solutions.

[Kingarabian]

Some model and ensemble runs have been showing a decent TC making it to the CPAC.

[Yellow Evan]