2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[TheStormExpert]

And just like that the Atlantic MDR quickly rebounds to above normal SST's!

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1271226499048374272

[toad strangler]

And just like that the Atlantic MDR quickly rebounds to above normal SST's!

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1271226499048374272

It wouldn't take much. Those neg anomalies some of you were championing about 3 weeks to a month ago as a deterrent were MINUSCULE as compared to normal.

[BYG Jacob]

And just like that the Atlantic MDR quickly rebounds to above normal SST's!

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1271226499048374272

It wouldn't take much. Those neg anomalies some of you were championing about 3 weeks to a month ago as a deterrent were MINUSCULE as compared to normal.

But I was told the cold anomalies would last through ASO ad the MDR would close.
/s

[ScottNAtlanta]

Umm 2005, 2017.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1271242900647620614

Either he's all in or he's not bullish at all on an Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Does anyone recall what he was saying about the 2017 season at this time of year?

He was predicting a busy season, although he was slightly under done (who wasnt)...he was dead on in his track predictions though.

[Kingarabian]

New month, same old Euro.
https://i.imgur.com/LsETdqr_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

Maybe the ECMWF seasonal is broken.
Today's 46 day EPS (June 11 - July 27th) had about 79% of the 50members + control showing likely TC tracks across the Atlantic. Only 11 members showed a relatively quiet Atlantic through July 27th.

Here's the members with the most interesting tracks. Member 48 is pretty wild.




To those interested, these images are available at http://www.Weathermodels.com. Register there for unlimited access.

[SFLcane]

Can’t post tweets from my iPhone just does not work. Interesting post from weather.us on sst’s quickly warming across the Atlantic as we get into July. Link below

https://twitter.com/weatherdotus/status ... 04739?s=21

[NDG]

Umm 2005, 2017.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1271242900647620614

Either he's all in or he's not bullish at all on an Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Does anyone recall what he was saying about the 2017 season at this time of year?

He was predicting a busy season, although he was slightly under done (who wasnt)...he was dead on in his track predictions though.

Right before the season started JB predicted just an average season for 2017.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-weat ... SKCN18C2EY

[JetFuel_SE]

Either he's all in or he's not bullish at all on an Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Does anyone recall what he was saying about the 2017 season at this time of year?

He was predicting a busy season, although he was slightly under done (who wasnt)...he was dead on in his track predictions though.

Right before the season started JB predicted just an average season for 2017.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-weat ... SKCN18C2EY

I'm pretty sure that was due to a possible El Niño, but the opposite happened instead.

[SFLcane]

The big question is will the Atlantic warming hold? The GFS has Atlantic-wide strong easterlies coming.

[NDG]

He was predicting a busy season, although he was slightly under done (who wasnt)...he was dead on in his track predictions though.

Right before the season started JB predicted just an average season for 2017.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-weat ... SKCN18C2EY

I'm pretty sure that was due to a possible El Niño, but the opposite happened instead.

Yes, him being an ECMWF hugger, he was betting on its El Nino forecast coming to fruition. His forecast back in March '17 was even a bigger bust.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherdotUS/status/1271397085561204739

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1271102390184415235

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1271102390184415235

How would a sinking branch be favorable?

[cainjamin]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1271102390184415235

How would a sinking branch be favorable?

I think he means that by the time the sinking branch passes, we'll be in peak season which would likely mean a rising branch would be in place by then.

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1271102390184415235

How would a sinking branch be favorable?

He's probably thinking that a sinking motion now will change by ASO vs viceversa.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1271102390184415235

How would a sinking branch be favorable?

There would be a rising branch over Africa pumping out AEWs, and based on the model Ben tweeted, the sinking branch will move more into the EPac, suppressing activity there while activity in the MDR would likely be increased.

[cycloneye]

Let's see how many sal outbreaks occur in June and July that are the peak months for this.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1271428041630244864

[AutoPenalti]

Let's see how many sal outbreaks occur in June and July that are the peak months for this.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1271428041630244864

Incoming season cancelled posts.

[gatorcane]

Surprised nobody is talking about the complete lack of Bermuda High this spring and summer so far albeit the past couple of days has featured decent easterly “trades” across Southern Florida and the Keys, though ephemeral which will end this weekend. Looking at the models this lack of Bermuda High feature looks to continue. The pattern is somewhat similar to last year as well but last year at this time we saw a pretty decent high building in. The pattern resembles nothing like 2015-2018 by this time so far, the years of persistent western Atlantic ridging (i.e. strong Bermuda High).

[WeatherEmperor]

Surprised nobody is talking about the complete lack of Bermuda High this spring and summer so far albeit the past couple of days has featured decent easterly “trades” across Southern Florida and the Keys, though ephemeral which will end this weekend. Looking at the models this lack of Bermuda High feature looks to continue. The pattern is somewhat similar to last year as well but last year at this time we saw a pretty decent high building in. The pattern resembles nothing like 2015-2018 by this time so far, the years of persistent western Atlantic ridging (i.e. strong Bermuda High).

Perhaps thw NAO can give us some clues. Starting in April, there have been 2 big dips into negative territory while the remainder of the time it has been hovering near 0. If we see prolonged positive NAO, it could cause the Bermuda High to build back in




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