SW Caribbean Watch

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like a developing system with a closed circ. Models suggested this would be moving into the NW Caribbean, which has the warmest waters and highest OHC

[BYG Jacob]

[Aric Dunn]

I think it is pretty obvious we have something pretty quickly coming together.

[thundercam96]

I think it is pretty obvious we have something pretty quickly coming together.

It’s spinning up pretty nicely... surprised to see the models aren’t even showing the slightest indication with this.


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[Kingarabian]

I think it is pretty obvious we have something pretty quickly coming together.

https://i.ibb.co/c14RLpD/index.gif

Proving the models wrong so far.

[JetFuel_SE]

I think it is pretty obvious we have something pretty quickly coming together.

https://i.ibb.co/c14RLpD/index.gif

Proving the models wrong so far.

There were actually some GEPS members that had a cyclone forming from a disturbance here, could be the thing they were hinting at.

[JetFuel_SE]

I think it is pretty obvious we have something pretty quickly coming together.

https://i.ibb.co/c14RLpD/index.gif

Proving the models wrong so far.

There were actually some GEPS members that had a cyclone forming from a disturbance here, could be the thing they were hinting at.

Well would you look at that, there is still one little thing hitting Florida.

[JetFuel_SE]

I'm unsure about the reliability of SCATSAT, but here it is, looks better than a RapidSCAT pass over Colin:

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.gyazo.com/8aa706fd6ec70f48fd7edd0129ff8d74.png

I'm unsure about the reliability of SCATSAT, but here it is, looks better than a RapidSCAT pass over Colin:

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/rscat_images/arch12_low/RS2016157/zooms/WMBas19.png

I mean ASCAT is showing very similar as well as surface obs.

Deep convection continues to build around the center..

we should get a mnetion from the NHC tonight.

[MississippiWx]

This is one of those years where every disturbance tries to develop into a tropical cyclone. This probably won’t have enough water to develop on the Atlantic side, but still impressive.

[Kingarabian]

This is one of those years where every disturbance tries to develop into a tropical cyclone. This probably won’t have enough water to develop on the Atlantic side, but still impressive.

Yeah models that were keen on development tried to spin it up just NW of Panama, allowing it to track further north giving it more time over water.

[aspen]

SSTs are high in this region, and there’s plenty of moisture in the atmosphere. The only inhibiting factor I can see is the 25-30 kt of wind shear, which, according to the 24 hr tendency map, is not changing at all.

[Aric Dunn]

This is one of those years where every disturbance tries to develop into a tropical cyclone. This probably won’t have enough water to develop on the Atlantic side, but still impressive.

Yeah models that were keen on development tried to spin it up just NW of Panama, allowing it to track further north giving it more time over water.

majority off all the runs of GFS and ensembles showed it lifting NNW. the SW shear will keep it lopsided which would keep from going inland or crossover. possibly move across the eastern portion of Honduras.

[Kingarabian]

This is one of those years where every disturbance tries to develop into a tropical cyclone. This probably won’t have enough water to develop on the Atlantic side, but still impressive.

Yeah models that were keen on development tried to spin it up just NW of Panama, allowing it to track further north giving it more time over water.

majority off all the runs of GFS and ensembles showed it lifting NNW. the SW shear will keep it lopsided which would keep from going inland or crossover. possibly move across the eastern portion of Honduras.

Tropicaltidbts doesn't have the ICON 850mb vort graphics but the 500mb graphic shows this lifting north:

[SFLcane]

This is one of those years where every disturbance tries to develop into a tropical cyclone. This probably won’t have enough water to develop on the Atlantic side, but still impressive.

Yeah models that were keen on development tried to spin it up just NW of Panama, allowing it to track further north giving it more time over water.

majority off all the runs of GFS and ensembles showed it lifting NNW. the SW shear will keep it lopsided which would keep from going inland or crossover. possibly move across the eastern portion of Honduras.

Maybe a week ago... Euro brings this inland tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah models that were keen on development tried to spin it up just NW of Panama, allowing it to track further north giving it more time over water.

majority off all the runs of GFS and ensembles showed it lifting NNW. the SW shear will keep it lopsided which would keep from going inland or crossover. possibly move across the eastern portion of Honduras.

Maybe a week ago... Euro brings this inland tonight.

yeah as a shallow far weaker trough.. this would be steered mid level flow in it's present orginizartion. also as I mentioned it will be lopsided from the SW shear.

we all no how that plays out 99 percent of the time.

[toad strangler]

Yeah models that were keen on development tried to spin it up just NW of Panama, allowing it to track further north giving it more time over water.

majority off all the runs of GFS and ensembles showed it lifting NNW. the SW shear will keep it lopsided which would keep from going inland or crossover. possibly move across the eastern portion of Honduras.

Maybe a week ago... Euro brings this inland tonight.

yeah ... the Euro makes quick work of this. SO does the GFS

[Kingarabian]

majority off all the runs of GFS and ensembles showed it lifting NNW. the SW shear will keep it lopsided which would keep from going inland or crossover. possibly move across the eastern portion of Honduras.

Maybe a week ago... Euro brings this inland tonight.

yeah ... the Euro makes quick work of this. SO does the GFS

Not sure if its the same disturbance but the 18z GFS has it over water compared to previous runs.


Not much to see @ 850mb.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah models that were keen on development tried to spin it up just NW of Panama, allowing it to track further north giving it more time over water.

majority off all the runs of GFS and ensembles showed it lifting NNW. the SW shear will keep it lopsided which would keep from going inland or crossover. possibly move across the eastern portion of Honduras.

Tropicaltidbts doesn't have the ICON 850mb vort graphics but the 500mb graphic shows this lifting north:
https://i.imgur.com/jtBuGSF.png

yeah, it would almost certainly move north or nnw with the mid level flow

and clearly the models are not initializing the surface and low levels correctly. since we have surface and ASCAT data indicating much more going on than the models are showing.

[wxman57]

Looks like it'll move inland into CA by tomorrow. Close to zero chance of development. Very high shear there, too. Might get something in the East Pac over the next week or two, but the Atlantic looks quiet.