SW Caribbean Watch

[NDG]

There was a surface reflection yesterday that has likely moved over eastern Honduras an NE Nicaragua. everything in heading towards the NW carrib.

definitely needs to be watched.

But the UL conditions in the NW Caribbean has a very high shear, not changing any time soon because of the ULL dropping south the SE US.

high divergent shear has stopped how many recent storms from forming ?? lol

It happens, but not this time, IMO.

[NDG]

Sure Aric, any vorticity in the tropics have to be watched carefully.
However, for the time being, upper level conditions down in the SW Caribbean are not conducive for development down there now and going up into at least the next 5 days.

again.. high divergent shear can be the catalyst. people need to remember that just because there is shear does not mean something cant develop and fester for days..

I am very aware of this Aric come on!. This is nothing new to me here.. I am just trying to get you to see that the odds.are right now, highly favors this system not developing due to hostile upper level conditions.
Plus, the main trough axis is expected to traverse inland into Central America in all likelihood within the next 24 hours or so.

The wave axis is already to the west, the monsoon trough is what's down there now.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_06Z.gif

[northjaxpro]

again.. high divergent shear can be the catalyst. people need to remember that just because there is shear does not mean something cant develop and fester for days..

I am very aware of this Aric come on!. This is nothing new to me here.. I am just trying to get you to see that the odds.are right now, highly favors this system not developing due to hostile upper level conditions.
Plus, the main trough axis is expected to traverse inland into Central America in all likelihood within the next 24 hours or so.

The wave axis is already to the west, the monsoon trough is what's down there now.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_06Z.gif

Yes the gyre itself. That is what I meant.

[Aric Dunn]

again.. high divergent shear can be the catalyst. people need to remember that just because there is shear does not mean something cant develop and fester for days..

I am very aware of this Aric come on!. This is nothing new to me here.. I am just trying to get you to see that the odds.are right now, highly favors this system not developing due to hostile upper level conditions.
Plus, the main trough axis is expected to traverse inland into Central America in all likelihood within the next 24 hours or so.

The wave axis is already to the west, the monsoon trough is what's down there now.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_06Z.gif

Said in my earlier post the wave axis had moved and was north of Honduras... like all waves they do extend out. north half of a wave is of particular interest typically.

[drezee]

Nice blow up and MLC.. but there is no surface support up there. The surface trough is near Panama. It will likely track WNW in CA.

[GCANE]

The ULL over the CONUS East Coast will start to move north in a couple days.
Going to set up a nice wave-break anti-cyclone over the west Carib by end of week.
Chances may be better then for TC genesis.

[GCANE]

Looks like a solid wave will come into the area Sunday.
Strong dryline could fire off some serious convection.
ULL and ARWB timing is going to be key.
SW of Jamaica could bear watching then.

[cycloneye]

If that is the case, then a new thread has to be made. First post of the thread was this:

BYG Jacob » Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:42 pm

Looks like a developing system with a closed circ. Models suggested this would be moving into the NW Caribbean, which has the warmest waters and highest OHC

[GCANE]

Massive MCS over Venezuela hitting the water north of Panama, heading NW.
Following a path of shear-axis convection.
Anti-cyclone is over this.

[GCANE]

Heading straight into an Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Break (ARWB).
Watching this very closely.

[GCANE]

Got some LL vorticity with it.
Let's see how far north this can go.