2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Ubuntwo]

Better pray it's a normal climo re-curve season

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1272690681165774848?s=20

I thought the normal was for recurving storms?

That's exactly what they said

[Shell Mound]

lol @ the Euro as a long range Atlantic Basin tropical model

http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1272693003128356872?s=20

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1272827735874899970

[Shell Mound]

Regarding the rapid change in tropical cyclone heat potential between June 5 and June 6, that seems to arise from a change in the way the depth of the 26C isotherm is calculated.

What made you suspect that is the case? Do you have a link to the evidence? I would certainly be interested in viewing it.

Tropical cyclone heat potential is calculated using an integration of sea surface temperatures over some depth, so as a first guess one or more of the input datasets (either the 26C isotherm depth, SSTs, or sea height anomalies) was the likely culprit in the sudden uptick in tropical cyclone heat potential.

I took a look at each of these, and the standout dataset was the 26C isotherm depth. Here are a few images of the 26C isotherm depth dataset in past times: 2009, 2010, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, and June 5 2020.

Compare these with the day after the TCHP suddenly changed, June 6, 2020. You'll notice that evidently something has changed in the way the data is presented/processed. The spatial resolution appears to have increased, and there's no longer a sharp cutoff between the tropics and the subtropics (based on the fact that this happened in 1 day, it's more likely this cutoff was an artifact of data processing rather than an actual physical phenomenon).

Yes, data from the University of Miami indicate that 2020 is rather close to a blend of 1998 and 2005: solidly warmer than all but 1998, 1999, and 2010 in the Caribbean, somewhat cooler than 2005 and 2010 in the MDR. Perhaps we will end up with ACE greater than in 2017, given the stronger WAM/AEJ and higher amplitude of easterly waves observed thus far, along with similarly cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña conditions to be anticipated, in addition to similar SST patterns in the Atlantic basin. Note that 1998 and 1999—and even 2010 (!)—were actually warmer than 2017 at this point yet ended up with lower ACE. (2010 actually surpassed 2005 at this point yet also ended up with far lower ACE.) So SSTs alone, while better correlated with ACE than many other indicators, do not guarantee super-high ACE. In certain respects 2017 might actually turn out to be a decent analog: higher ACE than 1998 and 1999, yet lower than 2005 or 1933. Furthermore, note that 2020, while similar to 2017, is overall warmer than that year, yet behind 2005 and 2010, among the other years mentioned.

2020:

*Note: credit to TheAustinMan for fixing the colour-scheme and scale for relevant comparison.

2017:


2010:


2005:


1999:


1998:

[USTropics]

Some quick model verifications for 2019, here are JAS precipitation anomalies observed compared to some June 2019 forecasts for JAS:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1272848662218104832

[USTropics]

2020 June forecasts for ASO:

[cycloneye]

Is going to be one of the biggest sal outbreaks of the past few years.



https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... ane-season

[Shell Mound]

Is going to be one of the biggest sal outbreaks of the past few years.

https://i.imgur.com/5qFTmfb.jpg

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... ane-season

The first big SAL outbreak in June usually marks the first “season cancel” posts on S2K.

[toad strangler]

Is going to be one of the biggest sal outbreaks of the past few years.

https://i.imgur.com/5qFTmfb.jpg

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... ane-season

The first big SAL outbreak in June usually marks the first “season cancel” posts on S2K.

The SAL as been messing with the Atlantic Basin tropical season for only 7 million years now. So, I get why some enthusiasts aren't used to it yet.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1272935353733844994




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1272936350589816832

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1272963874258444288

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1272899231087579137



 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1272903843903410177



 http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1272996561925009408

[AutoPenalti]

I can probably see why the Euro does what it does with that dry bias.

[Kingarabian]

Within 5 days, EPS shows game for both the WATL and the EPAC. The Atlantic usually has SAL issues around this time but the EPAC has a developing La Nina.



PC - Weathermodels.com

[FireRat]

That's quite a SAL event, right on time too.
Funny thing is, without SAL showing up every season, we would probably rival the West Pacific Typhoon seasons on a regular basis and end up with tons of hurricanes and like 30 named storms lol.

SAL could keep us from going '2005' this year if it's still around during Aug-Oct and west well into the islands. Something tells me though, than if we see any 'season cancels', that they will age badly this year like they did in 2017.

[toad strangler]

That's quite a SAL event, right on time too.
Funny thing is, without SAL showing up every season, we would probably rival the West Pacific Typhoon seasons on a regular basis and end up with tons of hurricanes and like 30 named storms lol.

SAL could keep us from going '2005' this year if it's still around during Aug-Oct and west well into the islands. Something tells me though, than if we see any 'season cancels', that they will age badly this year like they did in 2017.

Maybe we can all pool some money together and get Africa to flatten the dunes and pave over the Sahara with a thick layer of asphalt or concrete. OR, like I had posted earlier, we can realize that SAL has been messing with the basin for 7 million years.

[Ubuntwo]

That's quite a SAL event, right on time too.
Funny thing is, without SAL showing up every season, we would probably rival the West Pacific Typhoon seasons on a regular basis and end up with tons of hurricanes and like 30 named storms lol.

SAL could keep us from going '2005' this year if it's still around during Aug-Oct and west well into the islands. Something tells me though, than if we see any 'season cancels', that they will age badly this year like they did in 2017.

Maybe we can all pool some money together and get Africa to flatten the dunes and pave over the Sahara with a thick layer of asphalt or concrete. OR, like I had posted earlier, we can realize that SAL has been messing with the basin for 7 million years.

inconsistently - there have been Saharan wet periods in the not so distant past, as recently as five thousand years ago. I bet SAL wasn't a huge problem when the desert was covered by grassy fields and forests

[toad strangler]

That's quite a SAL event, right on time too.
Funny thing is, without SAL showing up every season, we would probably rival the West Pacific Typhoon seasons on a regular basis and end up with tons of hurricanes and like 30 named storms lol.

SAL could keep us from going '2005' this year if it's still around during Aug-Oct and west well into the islands. Something tells me though, than if we see any 'season cancels', that they will age badly this year like they did in 2017.

Maybe we can all pool some money together and get Africa to flatten the dunes and pave over the Sahara with a thick layer of asphalt or concrete. OR, like I had posted earlier, we can realize that SAL has been messing with the basin for 7 million years.

inconsistently - there have been Saharan wet periods in the not so distant past, as recently as five thousand years ago. I bet SAL wasn't a huge problem when the desert was covered by grassy fields and forests

Periods like this were minuscule in duration of time in relation to the deserts lifespan. The Sahara has been an impressive desert juggernaut for millions of years and continues to be.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1272596265696669699



 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1272596268200669185



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1272600130445807616

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1272963874258444288

The strength of the SAL outbreak is likely attributable to the higher-than-normal amplitude of African easterly waves, meaning favourable indicator(s) of activity.