ATL: DOLLY - Remnants

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 95, 2020062112, , BEST, 0, 366N, 678W, 25, 1013, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011, SPAWNINVEST, al722020 to al952020,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120952&p=2807785#p2807785

[cainjamin]

I wouldn't be surprised if this sneaks up on us into a subtropical storm. Looking a lot like Andrea from last year already.

[MarioProtVI]

LLC trying to consolidate near ~37.5N ~67.5W. Maybe brief SD 4?

[AnnularCane]

Awwww, look at that pretty little thing.

[cainjamin]

Convection is popping near the LLC. Probably feeling the effects of the Gulf Stream underneath it.

[cainjamin]

Lots of little vortexes rotating around the dominant LLC. It will be interesting to see if the bursting convection can tighten it up a little more.

[mrbagyo]

[Extratropical94]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system is located about
300 miles southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Showers and
thunderstorms have recently become a little better organized near
the center, and the system could briefly acquire subtropical
characteristics tonight and early Monday while the low moves
northeastward over the warm waters of the Gulfstream. By Monday
night and Tuesday, however, the system is expected to weaken when
it moves back over the cooler waters of the North Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[EquusStorm]

Well that's getting awfully close, have seen worse looking systems classified. Even a massive SAL outbreak isn't slowing things down as much as one would assume with these higher latitude things spinning up

[aspen]

The circulation is quite broad, but it’s decently defined and hot towers keep popping up near the center from time to time. If it keeps this up, we probably will have a STC tomorrow.

[TheStormExpert]

Invest 95L might be the only game in town for the next several weeks.

[Kiko Snowe]

95L could very well be on it's way to becoming a STC by tomorrow, but it'll need to sustain what it has now to try to make any transitions. And even there, it has quite a short window of opportunity when it's over the gulf stream before it dies out.

[cycloneye]

Next.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system located several hundred miles southeast of
Cape Cod, Massachusetts has become less organized over the past
several hours. The low has moved over cold water, north of the
Gulf Stream, and tropical or subtropical development has become
less likely. The system is expected to weaken as it moves over even
colder waters on Monday and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Extratropical94]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a low pressure system located
several hundred miles southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts is
continuing to become less organized. The low has moved over cold
water north of the Gulf Stream, and tropical or subtropical
development has become less likely. The system is expected to
weaken as it moves over even colder waters later today and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[Extratropical94]

Still 20/20.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a large low pressure system located
several hundred miles southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, remains
disorganized. The low is moving slowly eastward just north of the
warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and tropical or subtropical
development will remain unlikely if the system remains over
unfavorable ocean conditions. The system is expected to weaken as it
moves over even colder waters late today and on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[FireRat]

looks like a downward trend in 95L's chances, I'd say it's on its way to Davy Jones' locker.

[Kiko Snowe]

I would actually beg to differ, it's become much more organized lately and a brief subtropical cyclone looks somewhat probable. I'd give it around a 40% chance at the moment with it's current organizational trend.

[Sciencerocks]

I would actually beg to differ, it's become much more organized lately and a brief subtropical cyclone looks somewhat probable. I'd give it around a 40% chance at the moment with it's current organizational trend.

I agree!

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1275105610023841805

[Hurricanehink]

Chris 2012 anyone?