ATL: DOLLY - Remnants

[aspen]

If this becomes Dolly before 12z tomorrow, it'll become the earliest fourth ATL named storm in history.

No, Danielle ‘16 still holds that record, but only by a few days; it was named on June 20th, 2016.

[Dean_175]

Dolly’s second attempt at becoming a subtropical storm this year. Trying very hard. I wonder if she will succeed this time.

[northjaxpro]

Dolly’s second attempt at becoming a subtropical storm this year. Trying very hard. I wonder if she will succeed this time.

The 11 p.m. discussion mentions over the next 12 hours or so, the cyclone could do just enough over the Gulf Stream current to reach the 35 KT threshold to get upgraded to Dolly before entering cooler ssts. NHC forecaster Pasch, who prepared the forecast package, is thinking like me earlier in that this system will be able to get named. We will see.

[toad strangler]

LOL

 http://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1275272487408787457

[CyclonicFury]

LOL

http://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1275272487408787457?s=20

Not surprised. iCyclone hates everything that's not a major hurricane in the deep tropics.

[toad strangler]

LOL

http://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1275272487408787457?s=20

Not surprised. iCyclone hates everything that's not a major hurricane in the deep tropics.

Well, when you go hunting for bear, why settle for squirrel?

[chaser1]

LOL

http://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1275272487408787457?s=20

Couldn't agree more. They'll end up naming it.... another 12 hour flop

[FireRat]

Yeah I agree too, lets see if this name gets burned today

[Ubuntwo]

Pretty convectively active right now, looks alright. CIMSS ADT is at 2.8/3.2. Let's see if they slap a name on it.

[Extratropical94]

Remains a depression for now.

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 63.4W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[Dean_175]

Remains a depression for now.

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 63.4W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

Yup and the NHC no longer is predicting this to reach the 35kt threshold. Looks a bit better on satellite but running out of time.

Side Question: does anyone know what the NHC's current official policy is regarding subtropical systems achieving hurricane strength? There have been a couple of subtropical storms (in 1968 and 1979) that reached winds of 80mph and 75mph respectively. From what I have read, subtropical storms would today be considered tropical (by default) after achieving hurricane force winds. However, these two storms have not been reclassified as tropical systems in reanalysis. They remain the only two "subtropical hurricanes". Why?

[djones65]

I am always amused that the NHC is always "wrong." It's a "catch-21" because if they name it Dolly and waste a name they are villified and if they don't they are wrong for ignoring it!

Just like America even weather nerds like me are divided.

I understand rationale if it is not named; I personally vote that it should be based on convectve increase after ascat of 28 knots. We will see....

Hopefully everyone votes their opinions!

[Dean_175]

I am always amused that the NHC is always "wrong." It's a "catch-21" because if they name it Dolly and waste a name they are villified and if they don't they are wrong for ignoring it!

Just like America even weather nerds like me are divided.

I understand rationale if it is not named; I personally vote that it should be based on convectve increase after ascat of 28 knots. We will see....

Hopefully everyone votes their opinions!

I would vote for this still being a subtropical depression at present time. I don't believe that ASCAT supports the existence of 35kt winds over a broad area and also shows a fairly ugly circulation. Satellite cloud pattern has certainly improved with increased convection but still does not look that healthy.

[Ubuntwo]

SATCON is up to 44kt

[Ubuntwo]

I am always amused that the NHC is always "wrong." It's a "catch-21" because if they name it Dolly and waste a name they are villified and if they don't they are wrong for ignoring it!

Just like America even weather nerds like me are divided.

I understand rationale if it is not named; I personally vote that it should be based on convectve increase after ascat of 28 knots. We will see....

Hopefully everyone votes their opinions!

I would vote for this still being a subtropical depression at present time. I don't believe that ASCAT supports the existence of 35kt winds over a broad area and also shows a fairly ugly circulation. Satellite cloud pattern has certainly improved with increased convection but still does not look that healthy.

The last ASCAT pass over the system I can find is from about 0z UTC, 11 hours ago. If you have a more recent pass please post it.

[northjaxpro]

The deep convection has yet to start tugging onto the CoC, but the convection is popping to the NW of the CoC and especially to the SE of it. It is real close to being named now in my analysis.
The cyclone definitely is trying admirably to get the upgrade. It has taken advatange of the Gulf Stream Current it has traversed over since yesterday afternoon. I will say it will not take much at all for it to reach to 35 KT threshold. One decent convective burst close to the CoC this morning into early afternoon will do the trick before the cyclone enters cooler ssts by this evening.

I vote it gets named Dolly by early this afternoon

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely Close to being named. if we get an ASCAT pass before 11 it should show a TS. however small TC's often have trouble showing up on the ASCAT.

ALSO it is damn near fully tropical

[HurricaneEnzo]

If it is nameable name it bottom line. If it has sustained long enough to get classified it is what it is. I don't care if it poofs an hour after being named or 5 minutes for that matter. The whole waste of a name argument is a joke. If it has met criteria to be named then you name it. The significance of a storm isn't in the criteria. Ppl need to quit whining.

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[Sciencerocks]

40 knots and tropical imo

[HurricaneEnzo]

40 knots and tropical imo

Agreed. Think it gets a name soon.

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