ATL: DOLLY - Remnants

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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm

#101 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:30 pm

the llc is almost completely stacked now..

and umm.. there is definitely, although shallow, convection rotating around that eye feature..

looks like it is trying.. if some fresh convection builds in that ring ... looks like we might get a quick hurricane out of dolly lol

Image
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm

#102 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:43 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:the llc is almost completely stacked now..

and umm.. there is definitely, although shallow, convection rotating around that eye feature..

looks like it is trying.. if some fresh convection builds in that ring ... looks like we might get a quick hurricane out of dolly lol

https://i.ibb.co/S3rwCx6/LABELS-19700101-000000-5.gif

She’s getting her act together really quickly. I hope the NHC goes with 50-55 kt for the 5 pm update.

Meanwhile, I better start preparing for the taste of hat...
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm

#103 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:48 pm

aspen wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:the llc is almost completely stacked now..

and umm.. there is definitely, although shallow, convection rotating around that eye feature..

looks like it is trying.. if some fresh convection builds in that ring ... looks like we might get a quick hurricane out of dolly lol

https://i.ibb.co/S3rwCx6/LABELS-19700101-000000-5.gif

She’s getting her act together really quickly. I hope the NHC goes with 50-55 kt for the 5 pm update.

Meanwhile, I better start preparing for the taste of hat...


sure reminds of hurricane vince from 2005. different regions obviously but marginal ssts cold air aloft.

Image
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm

#104 Postby toad strangler » Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:49 pm

aspen wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:the llc is almost completely stacked now..

and umm.. there is definitely, although shallow, convection rotating around that eye feature..

looks like it is trying.. if some fresh convection builds in that ring ... looks like we might get a quick hurricane out of dolly lol

https://i.ibb.co/S3rwCx6/LABELS-19700101-000000-5.gif

She’s getting her act together really quickly. I hope the NHC goes with 50-55 kt for the 5 pm update.

Meanwhile, I better start preparing for the taste of hat...


Pics or it didn’t happen lol
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm

#105 Postby cainjamin » Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:57 pm

Dolly is looking really good with that proto-eye. The strength of the convection is definitely waning a little though - the northern half of the circulation is starting to move over 21-23 degree waters. Probably means that upper level winds aren't mixing down to the surface very well. I'd bet the NHC will up to 50KT at the 5:00pm update but I doubt they would go much higher without concrete evidence of higher winds.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm

#106 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jun 23, 2020 2:57 pm

aspen wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:the llc is almost completely stacked now..

and umm.. there is definitely, although shallow, convection rotating around that eye feature..

looks like it is trying.. if some fresh convection builds in that ring ... looks like we might get a quick hurricane out of dolly lol

https://i.ibb.co/S3rwCx6/LABELS-19700101-000000-5.gif

She’s getting her act together really quickly. I hope the NHC goes with 50-55 kt for the 5 pm update.

Meanwhile, I better start preparing for the taste of hat...



It probably won't taste half bad if seasoned properly. Might be a little chewy though. :lol:
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm

#107 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:17 pm

There are some bubbles just under the canopy on the NW side... if sustained they will start overshooting .. then we will know this is deepening.

still fairly shallow.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm

#108 Postby toad strangler » Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:35 pm

 http://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1275527565914984449


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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm

#109 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:46 pm

Really? Unchanged from 40 kt? This is at least 45 kt if not close to 60 kt. I hope Dolly keeps herself together long enough for an upgrade.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm

#110 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:58 pm

Talk about underestimated. Definitely looks significantly stronger
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm

#111 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 23, 2020 4:49 pm

Now it looks like it’s weakening. Convection has become shallower and the eye-like feature is less prominent.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm

#112 Postby FireRat » Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:32 pm

Well so much for a "burned" name, Dolly is looking like a worthy storm after all.

Aspen, you might need to start marinating that hat.
I might follow ya and eat my socks if Dolly becomes a Hurricane.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm

#113 Postby gfsperpendicular » Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:51 pm

Dolly was looking really cute there for a bit but unfortunately all the convection is gone. She took pity on all you potential clothing-eaters, it would seem. :spam: :spam: :spam: :spam:
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm

#114 Postby BYG Jacob » Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:47 pm

They definitely need to up her intensity in post season analysis
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm

#115 Postby BYG Jacob » Tue Jun 23, 2020 6:48 pm

Also of note, this is the 4th well organized system we've had so far.
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Re: ATL: DOLLY - Tropical Storm

#116 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:39 pm

At this rate, I will not be eating any hat. Dolly’s convection has significantly waned and it almost looks subtropical again.
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