How many named storms will form in July?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:01 pm

I saw the post aspen made at the indicators thread and I decided to make this poll. The members can vote until June 30th at 5:01 PM EDT.

I voted two.

aspen · #2 Postby **aspen** » Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:14 pm

I went with 2 as well. If 2018 and 2019 could muster out three total July storms, then 2020, with a presumably more favorable basin during July compared to previous years, should definitely be able to at least match 2018’s total. It’s likely at least 1 will be an early MDR hurricane in the likes of Beryl ‘18 or Bertha ‘08.

CyclonicFury · #3 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:17 pm

Going with a conservative one.

johngaltfla · #4 Postby **johngaltfla** » Sat Jun 20, 2020 4:46 pm

floridasun78 · #5 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:39 pm

i say 1 in july

#6 Postby **drezee** » Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:53 pm

I voted three. One in the first 10 days and two in the last 10 days.

Chris90 · #7 Postby **Chris90** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:13 am

I voted 3 and I was surprised to see how many people have already voted for 3 as well, I thought I was going to be rather bullish compared to others.

I'll take my prediction one step further and say there's going to be one major out of those 3 in July. I think the MDR lid is going to come off earlier than is typical.

Sciencerocks · #8 Postby **Sciencerocks** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:37 am

#9 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:24 am

I will go with three storms. Once the SÀL disperses, I think the North Atlantic basin will spring back to life by July 10. I think we will see the MDR start to get going with activity.

We are still very much on track to have a potentially very hyperactive season!!

#10 Postby **chaser1** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:22 pm

Chris90 wrote:I voted 3 and I was surprised to see how many people have already voted for 3 as well, I thought I was going to be rather bullish compared to others.

I'll take my prediction one step further and say there's going to be one major out of those 3 in July. I think the MDR lid is going to come off earlier than is typical.

Wow, that IS bullish but i'd agree that this would imply the lid coming off!

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:42 pm

Good participation in the early stages of the poll so those who have not voted yet come and do so as the poll closes on June 30th at 5:01 PM.

#12 Postby **chaser1** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 12:46 pm

Voted 2..... reluctantly LOL. Was torn between 2-3 since nowadays I pretty much need consider into my own forecasts what I call the "6WDF - 6 hour Whirling Dervish Factor (which basically factors in the increasing number of named oceanic ragged-ass area's of low pressure having 35 kt winds within 100 miles from center that NHC see's turning counterclockwise for at least 6 hr's :ggreen:

). I think there will be two legit named storms of tropical origin during July.

#13 Postby **psyclone** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:35 pm

I voted 0 but I'm watching with interest. One of the most incredible things about the 2005 season was the Dennis/Emily combo. exceptionally ferocious storms occurring out of season's (recognizing that july is hurricane season but it's typically pretty quiet). It was a huge tell that the season was something special in a most terrifying way. I especially remember Dennis roaring offshore tampa bay at category 4 intensity a few days after the 4th and recall thinking...if that can happen in July it can happen in August-October with more ease. Needless to say I agree with those who believe a storm of deep tropical origins in July is a tell of a very active season while a quiet july doesn't tell much.

#14 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:44 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Chris90 wrote:I voted 3 and I was surprised to see how many people have already voted for 3 as well, I thought I was going to be rather bullish compared to others.

I'll take my prediction one step further and say there's going to be one major out of those 3 in July. I think the MDR lid is going to come off earlier than is typical.

Wow, that IS bullish but i'd agree that this would imply the lid coming off!

Exactly. I think will do just that beginning around mid-July and forward thereafter.

TheStormExpert · #15 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:57 pm

i went with two. I think SAL will limit July's potential, but August could be quite different.

Kiko Snowe · #16 Postby **Kiko Snowe** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:32 pm

I went with only 1 because of the SAL mainly, plus the typical activity in July. Might be a bit low but eh

CYCLONE MIKE · #17 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:57 pm

I say two. A weak short lived spin up and a longer lasting relatively weak storm like christobal. Environmental conditions just aren’t there yet. Maybe come august things will become more favorable :?:

Hammy · #18 Postby **Hammy** » Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:58 pm

I'll say two, both after mid-July.

FireRat · #19 Postby **FireRat** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:52 am

Went with 2 as well, wow seems this is the favored choice!
I'm thinking we'll get an early July storm and maybe a Late July hurricane.

#20 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:39 pm

I went with two. One of them being a hurricane in the subtropical Atlantic and one a short lived Gulf tropical storm.