2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[psyclone]

GFS is probably faking us out again... sometimes it scores but it sure dumps plenty of false alarms.

[TheStormExpert]

Could be the gfs up to its old tricks but remember; Euro was not showing Cristobal, even when it was within range. The gfs has been consistent....

Euro amnesia. Euro was awful with Cristobal initially.

Besides the Euro is notorious for being wrong beyond its 5-7 day range.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS continues with the SW Caribbean development which eventually moves into the gulf and becomes a weak TS:

[Ivanhater]

18z gfs not giving up. Development starts around 174 hour mark.

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[Steve]

Could be the gfs up to its old tricks but remember; Euro was not showing Cristobal, even when it was within range. The gfs has been consistent....

Euro amnesia. Euro was awful with Cristobal initially.

Yeah it was weird. I felt like the ICON and CMC did better sniffing out the stretched low before Dolly too. It’s 2020 so I’m sure nobody is taking things for granted. Both seem to indicate the best chance of Eduardo would be a do-over of Dolly but maybe a little farther north (east of NJ/PA). Waiting mode.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS continues with the SW Caribbean development which eventually moves into the gulf and becomes a weak TS:
https://i.imgur.com/RyNH28H.png

Taking the 18z GFS verbatim out in the long range, which is never good odds .... it really turns that system to the E quickly just after landfall. If that happens just a bit sooner there could be big time issues on the western FL peninsula. Again, just analyzing this one run. That's all I'm doing

[GCANE]

Run-to-run, 355K PV is consistently clearing out more and more in the GOM, particularly the west GOM.
Considering the GOM is already max'd out in terms of instability (6000 CAPE), any vort that is west of the MS delta could be big trouble since it'll be able to draw deep TPW air from the EPAC.

[floridasun78]

we need see what models show week from now but with MJO coming we could see one system start of july

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Run-to-run, 355K PV is consistently clearing out more and more in the GOM, particularly the west GOM.
Considering the GOM is already max'd out in terms of instability (6000 CAPE), any vort that is west of the MS delta could be big trouble since it'll be able to draw deep TPW air from the EPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/4LNW7y8.png

I would be more interested in seeing how much dry air and shear is around in 7-10 days before speculating how big something might become. Conditions could look perfect til whatever gets in the north central part of the gulf and it gets crushed like we’ve seen many times before.

[TheStormExpert]

00z GFS drops it and instead develops something in the Tropical Atlantic over 10 days out.

[Ubuntwo]

00z GFS drops it and instead develops something in the Tropical Atlantic over 10 days out.

"Dropped" is a harsh word. The energy is still there, the Gulf itself is just a more harsh environment with the PV


An upper level anticyclone in the Caribbean is stronger and further south and east, leading to more intense upper level winds streaming over the system

[Ubuntwo]

Very active ensemble run. Many members showing development in the Gulf, caving to the GFS a little. Continuing to show that subtropical Atlantic development, but the signal and intensity is generally higher. There's also more activity in the MDR.


The fact that there is a genuine possibility that we reach the G storm by early July is incredible.

[Shell Mound]

Very active ensemble run. Many members showing development in the Gulf, caving to the GFS a little. Continuing to show that subtropical Atlantic development, but the signal and intensity is generally higher. There's also more activity in the MDR.
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2020-06-25-00Z_240_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png

The fact that there is a genuine possibility that we reach the G storm by early July is incredible.

I don’t really see a strong signal for development in the Gulf or MDR on the 00Z EPS. There are hints of a low within the gyration over Central America, but nothing really consolidates, and only three members show a TS in the MDR. On the other hand, the signal for more development in the subtropics, particularly just off the Southeastern U.S., is notable and growing. So far, the absence of favourable conditions in the MDR through early July, along with continuing development in the subtropics, could be a positive indicator if it persists through the rest of the month, since it may indicate stronger SAL and/or sinking air (hence more VWS due to a strong TUTT as well) in the MDR during peak season.

[Ubuntwo]

Very active ensemble run. Many members showing development in the Gulf, caving to the GFS a little. Continuing to show that subtropical Atlantic development, but the signal and intensity is generally higher. There's also more activity in the MDR.
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2020-06-25-00Z_240_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png

The fact that there is a genuine possibility that we reach the G storm by early July is incredible.

I don’t really see a strong signal for development in the Gulf or MDR on the 00Z EPS. There are hints of a low within the gyration over Central America, but nothing really consolidates, and only three members show a TS in the MDR. On the other hand, the signal for more development in the subtropics, particularly just off the Southeastern U.S., is notable and growing. So far, the absence of favourable conditions in the MDR through early July, along with continuing development in the subtropics, could be a positive indicator if it persists through the rest of the month, since it may indicate stronger SAL and/or sinking air (hence more VWS due to a strong TUTT as well) in the MDR during peak season.

As for the Gulf development, the time frame for significant consolidation is somewhat beyond the 240 hour range as per the GFS. At that point on the more active GFS runs, there is only a weak low. The fact that the EPS has an uptick in such lows hints at further possible development in the future. The MDR stuff doesn't have much activity, but it is a notable uptick from the last run.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS continues to bring the timeframe in closer. Attempts to develop around the 7 day mark.

[GCANE]

It's back, and in the west GOM
GFS can't get a good handle on 355K PV at this point.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

[BYG Jacob]

I think the signal is pretty clear that we will get something in the GoM/Western Caribbean

[TheStormExpert]

Very active ensemble run. Many members showing development in the Gulf, caving to the GFS a little. Continuing to show that subtropical Atlantic development, but the signal and intensity is generally higher. There's also more activity in the MDR.
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2020-06-25-00Z_240_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png

The fact that there is a genuine possibility that we reach the G storm by early July is incredible.

I don’t really see a strong signal for development in the Gulf or MDR on the 00Z EPS. There are hints of a low within the gyration over Central America, but nothing really consolidates, and only three members show a TS in the MDR. On the other hand, the signal for more development in the subtropics, particularly just off the Southeastern U.S., is notable and growing. So far, the absence of favourable conditions in the MDR through early July, along with continuing development in the subtropics, could be a positive indicator if it persists through the rest of the month, since it may indicate stronger SAL and/or sinking air (hence more VWS due to a strong TUTT as well) in the MDR during peak season.

SAL is typical this time of year hence why the region is unfavorable for development. If this persists we’ll into August we might be able to breathe a little easier but that’s still over a month away.