2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Ivanhater]

I am seeing no signal that SAL will be in an issue during peak season, in fact, quite the opposite.

Just because something is in the headlines now( which is typical this time of year) doesn't mean you should extrapolate it. We have 4 named storms already and signals of more to come in the next couple of weeks.

It is only June 25th folks....

[toad strangler]

I am seeing no signal that SAL will be in an issue during peak season, infact, quite the opposite.

Just because something is in the headlines now( which is typical this time of year) doesn't mean you should extrapolate it. We have 4 named storms already and signals of more to come in the next couple of weeks.

It is only June 25th folks....

Ive been singing the same tune but it falls on deaf ears. SAL is SUPPOSED to be here right now. And even into much of July. Also, SAL does not mean 100% shutdown of the MDR either. There have been many examples where a EAW found a sweet spot to float on through and develop in its own little environment. Just like last month with marginal neg SST anomalies, some over react to SAL as well.

[SoupBone]

Very active ensemble run. Many members showing development in the Gulf, caving to the GFS a little. Continuing to show that subtropical Atlantic development, but the signal and intensity is generally higher. There's also more activity in the MDR.
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2020-06-25-00Z_240_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png

The fact that there is a genuine possibility that we reach the G storm by early July is incredible.

I don’t really see a strong signal for development in the Gulf or MDR on the 00Z EPS. There are hints of a low within the gyration over Central America, but nothing really consolidates, and only three members show a TS in the MDR. On the other hand, the signal for more development in the subtropics, particularly just off the Southeastern U.S., is notable and growing. So far, the absence of favourable conditions in the MDR through early July, along with continuing development in the subtropics, could be a positive indicator if it persists through the rest of the month, since it may indicate stronger SAL and/or sinking air (hence more VWS due to a strong TUTT as well) in the MDR during peak season.

SAL is typical this time of year hence why the region is unfavorable for development. If this persists we’ll into August we might be able to breathe a little easier but that’s still over a month away.

If I recall from last year, SAL was crazy then it was like someone turned off the fan switch and it was gone quickly. I love SAl and wish it hung around longer, but unfortunately, it doesn't.

Now for me in Texas, I can always root for the Death Ridge.

[Ivanhater]

Again, from everything I can see from the gfs, this is the wave that generates the system in the western Caribbean

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[Jr0d]

Go back to 2005, plenty of people on here were saying SAL was going to be a major inhibitor...even going into August.

As posted before on here, it's only June.

It looks like the GFS has dropped the NW Carribean/GoM storm. The long ranger looms pretty quiet. I can tell you that in Key West, the water temperatures are boiling hot. A lot of fisherman are concerned what the temps will be in August given where they are now. It would be nice to have an early season disorganized storm to help cool off the water, but I dont see that happening, especially now the GFS has dropped the system it trying to develop. Certainly not a good set-up for later this year, too many ingredients for major storms. I will be surprised if we do not see another cat 5 this season, I just hope the big ones stay offshore.

[cycloneye]

Hints in MDR.

[cycloneye]

Caribbean Cruiser.

[TheProfessor]

Go back to 2005, plenty of people on here were saying SAL was going to be a major inhibitor...even going into August.

As posted before on here, it's only June.

It looks like the GFS has dropped the NW Carribean/GoM storm. The long ranger looms pretty quiet. I can tell you that in Key West, the water temperatures are boiling hot. A lot of fisherman are concerned what the temps will be in August given where they are now. It would be nice to have an early season disorganized storm to help cool off the water, but I dont see that happening, especially now the GFS has dropped the system it trying to develop. Certainly not a good set-up for later this year, too many ingredients for major storms. I will be surprised if we do not see another cat 5 this season, I just hope the big ones stay offshore.

The GFS still has the 4th of July weekend storm, however it's further south with it's crossover and ends up much weaker before it hits the Texas coast.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS showing fantasy range Caribbean Cruiser .... LOW RIDER

[Ivanhater]

Yes, 12Z had the 4th of July storm into Texas as well as a full blown Caribbean cruiser.

While not likely, it is a sign July will continue to ramp up activity

[aspen]

Besides the Gulf storm and the Caribbean cruiser, the 12z GFS also shows some vorticity with the first AEW (the one that has its own thread), and also another one coming after 300 hours. That’s extremely long range but all of this is indicating that perhaps we’ll get some MDR activity once SAL calms down.

[cainjamin]

GFS is also showing weak development in about 2 days of the wave that's currently moving off the African coast. Doesn't last very long, but you can trace it's vorticity to north of the islands where it dissipates.

[stormlover2013]

It’s not even July and people worry about sal, that will die down, buckle ur seat belts

[Shell Mound]

Besides the Gulf storm and the Caribbean cruiser, the 12z GFS also shows some vorticity with the first AEW (the one that has its own thread), and also another one coming after 300 hours. That’s extremely long range but all of this is indicating that perhaps we’ll get some MDR activity once SAL calms down.

One thing is clear: models do not suggest that conditions will become especially conducive in the Atlantic until mid-July or later. Even during the first half of July, despite the onset of the CCKW, the global models still show a rather persistent TUTT over/near the Greater Antilles. This would shear apart anything that manages to develop, regardless of SAL/sinking air. Already this is a sharp difference between 2020 and 1933/2005. During the latter two hyperactive seasons, the Atlantic mustered Cat-2+ hurricanes as early as the first week of July. So we can already safely rule out that this season will be like 1933/2005, even in terms of overall ACE rather than numbers. On the other hand, borderline or lower-end “hyperactive” seasons such as 1996 and 2017 are still in play, although I’d lean more toward the former than the latter at this stage, given the possibility of strong trade winds due to enhanced ridging and retrograding TUTTs during peak season.

[GCANE]

Wave hits the SA coast in 120 hrs and spins up a warm core.
Travels along the coast.
Curves to the NW at Columbia.
Goes over the Yucatan into the west GOM.

[Ivanhater]

Wave hits the SA coast in 120 hrs and spins up a warm core.
Travels along the coast.
Curves to the NW at Columbia.
Goes over the Yucatan into the west GOM.


https://i.imgur.com/YnX7WQG.png



https://i.imgur.com/yBXuFOZ.png

Thanks for clarifying that Gcane, I posted yesterday the catalyst was the wave coming off African but wasn't 100 percent sure.

[Ubuntwo]

Besides the Gulf storm and the Caribbean cruiser, the 12z GFS also shows some vorticity with the first AEW (the one that has its own thread), and also another one coming after 300 hours. That’s extremely long range but all of this is indicating that perhaps we’ll get some MDR activity once SAL calms down.

One thing is clear: models do not suggest that conditions will become especially conducive in the Atlantic until mid-July or later. Even during the first half of July, despite the onset of the CCKW, the global models still show a rather persistent TUTT over/near the Greater Antilles. This would shear apart anything that manages to develop, regardless of SAL/sinking air. Already this is a sharp difference between 2020 and 1933/2005. During the latter two hyperactive seasons, the Atlantic mustered Cat-2+ hurricanes as early as the first week of July. So we can already safely rule out that this season will be like 1933/2005, even in terms of overall ACE rather than numbers. On the other hand, borderline or lower-end “hyperactive” seasons such as 1996 and 2017 are still in play, although I’d lean more toward the former than the latter at this stage, given the possibility of strong trade winds due to enhanced ridging and retrograding TUTTs during peak season.

While I agree that this season will fall far short of 2005 and 1933, I don't think the semi-continuous presence of a TUTT on modeling is something to extrapolate an entire season's activity off of.

[GCANE]

Usually, when waves get on the SW side of a TUTT, chances are good for development.
This may spin up a little more north into the Carib, when the wave hits Columbia, then what GFS is forecasting.
The TUTT is forecast to start to dissipate then.

[GCANE]

Wave hits the SA coast in 120 hrs and spins up a warm core.
Travels along the coast.
Curves to the NW at Columbia.
Goes over the Yucatan into the west GOM.


https://i.imgur.com/YnX7WQG.png



https://i.imgur.com/yBXuFOZ.png

Thanks for clarifying that Gcane, I posted yesterday the catalyst was the wave coming off African but wasn't 100 percent sure.

Sure thing Ivanhater.

[Shell Mound]

Besides the Gulf storm and the Caribbean cruiser, the 12z GFS also shows some vorticity with the first AEW (the one that has its own thread), and also another one coming after 300 hours. That’s extremely long range but all of this is indicating that perhaps we’ll get some MDR activity once SAL calms down.

One thing is clear: models do not suggest that conditions will become especially conducive in the Atlantic until mid-July or later. Even during the first half of July, despite the onset of the CCKW, the global models still show a rather persistent TUTT over/near the Greater Antilles. This would shear apart anything that manages to develop, regardless of SAL/sinking air. Already this is a sharp difference between 2020 and 1933/2005. During the latter two hyperactive seasons, the Atlantic mustered Cat-2+ hurricanes as early as the first week of July. So we can already safely rule out that this season will be like 1933/2005, even in terms of overall ACE rather than numbers. On the other hand, borderline or lower-end “hyperactive” seasons such as 1996 and 2017 are still in play, although I’d lean more toward the former than the latter at this stage, given the possibility of strong trade winds due to enhanced ridging and retrograding TUTTs during peak season.

While I agree that this season will fall far short of 2005 and 1933, I don't think the semi-continuous presence of a TUTT on modeling is something to extrapolate an entire season's activity off of.

Well, a persistent TUTT not only signifies increased vertical wind shear and (typically) sinking air, but also creates more weaknesses allowing storms to curve OTS. Historically, most (~75% of) major hurricanes to hit the U.S. first developed in the MDR, so if the MDR is juxtaposed with stronger shear, more sinking air, and more weaknesses in the ridging, the chances of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. are considerably lower than otherwise. It is time to watch for the recurrence of these features and their locations in real time, besides trends on models. So far 2020 has been seeing a fair amount of development in the subtropics, but with no sign as yet of the MDR becoming notably more conducive, at least through mid-July, while available evidence suggests that the next named storm is most likely to develop off the Carolinas and/or Mid-Atlantic during early July. The GFS is most probably seeing yet another convectively generated ITCZ “ghost” in the MDR, given the tiny size of the vortex on the latest run(s). The EC/EPS and other dynamical models are far less aggressive.