Florida Weather

[psyclone]

Tampa is one of few places in mid florida that has never hit 100...a record long begging to be broken. the all time high is 99. tomorrow's forecast is 98. upper 90's highs and low 80's for mins with wicked dewpoints at max sun angle...that's about as rough as it gets

[psyclone]

Looks like temps are undershooting meaningfully. thank goodness. still stupid hot out..

[tgenius]

Not down in Miami they aren't.. It's like 92-93 around me with Index in the 105-107ish. It's brutal.

[psyclone]

Undershooting = not upper 90's. It's still shag nasty. but not nearly as bad as predicted.

[psyclone]

KPIE 4 pm ob 95 degrees with a dewpoint of 77 yields a heat index of 110.

[tgenius]

Ah. Down here it was low to mid 90s so its about on par. the Heat Index on the other hand... horrendous

[MetroMike]

Now at least for the Tampa Bay area there is still only a 20% chance of any rain next 5 days.
Who knew there would be a 2-3 week stretch without meaningful rain/storms in June.
Feeling cheated in my fav season.

[psyclone]

atmosphere seems a bit less hostile to convection today... baby steps. the longer we go absent heavy rain...the more coiled spring rebound we have. extreme heat and the resultant excessive warmth of shelf waters ( 89+ seems to be a good indicator) almost always eventually translates to a convective blow off that takes air and water temps back into their summer range. It's just a matter of waiting for it to happen. Probably won't be long. the pressure is building..

[psyclone]

Really extreme heat today...the ground is fairly dry, very few clouds, offshore flow, somewhat drier air mixing down relative to prior days...KTPA is 96 as of 2 pm and we still have some heating to go.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m surprised no ones mentioned that this ridge sitting on top of us is basically the SE ridge we all have a love/hate relationship with in the winter months.

[psyclone]

99 in the shade today at KTPA ties the all time record high. quite a few afternoon clouds scuttled what would have otherwise probably been a triple digit high. seabreeze collision near the coast might yield a couple storms this evening..

[floridasun78]

been hot here in southf heat index in 100

[MetroMike]

Yes record heat tying the all time record for any year in Tampa. 99f, my car thermometer read 102 even after driving for several minutes. Crazy conditions this week.

[northjaxpro]

The past couple of days, the SAL has definitely blanketed the North Florida region. The sunset yesterday was spectacular. We have a solid dust layer over the region this morning. The forecast max temp for this aftermoon here is 98 degrees. Blistrring heat for sure .The High Pressure ridge is sitting directly on top of us. Plenty if subsidence as well, so I would not be shocked see a 100 degree reading or two in the region.later today. There will only be just a few lucky ones to get cooling relief with a few widely scattered storms this weekend.

Yes, the dog days of Summer are definitely upon us unfortunately with no end in sight .

[Shell Mound]

I’m surprised no ones mentioned that this ridge sitting on top of us is basically the SE ridge we all have a love/hate relationship with in the winter months.

This is somewhat anecdotal, but in my experience the hottest summers in South-Central FL tend to precede uneventful hurricane seasons, in terms of local TC impacts, whether from CV or “homegrown” (late-season) systems. Perhaps this is related to the fact that the west-coast sea-breeze tends to dominate when the Bermuda High is weak and/or displaced farther north(-east) than it typically is, resulting in very high temperatures over coastal and interior portions of the southern and central peninsula. So maybe this current spate of heat is an auspicious signal for the rest of the hurricane season.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m surprised no ones mentioned that this ridge sitting on top of us is basically the SE ridge we all have a love/hate relationship with in the winter months.

This is somewhat anecdotal, but in my experience the hottest summers in South-Central FL tend to precede uneventful hurricane seasons, in terms of local TC impacts, whether from CV or “homegrown” (late-season) systems. Perhaps this is related to the fact that the west-coast sea-breeze tends to dominate when the Bermuda High is weak and/or displaced farther north(-east) than it typically is, resulting in very high temperatures over coastal and interior portions of the southern and central peninsula. So maybe this current spate of heat is an auspicious signal for the rest of the hurricane season.

We almost always get heat like this, just not till July or even August. I doubt this I guess you could say “heat-wave” is a precursor to an uneventful hurricane season for Florida but time will tell!

[psyclone]

I’m surprised no ones mentioned that this ridge sitting on top of us is basically the SE ridge we all have a love/hate relationship with in the winter months.

This is somewhat anecdotal, but in my experience the hottest summers in South-Central FL tend to precede uneventful hurricane seasons, in terms of local TC impacts, whether from CV or “homegrown” (late-season) systems. Perhaps this is related to the fact that the west-coast sea-breeze tends to dominate when the Bermuda High is weak and/or displaced farther north(-east) than it typically is, resulting in very high temperatures over coastal and interior portions of the southern and central peninsula. So maybe this current spate of heat is an auspicious signal for the rest of the hurricane season.

This is another effort to draw desired conclusions from the unknowable. The last time we hit 99 at Tampa was 1985. Elena waves hello. I'm not suggesting we're going to have an Elena scare. That would be silly. As would any other conclusion at this point. We have enough trouble and headaches with a 5 day track. Enjoy the downtime

[TheStormExpert]

I’m surprised no ones mentioned that this ridge sitting on top of us is basically the SE ridge we all have a love/hate relationship with in the winter months.

This is somewhat anecdotal, but in my experience the hottest summers in South-Central FL tend to precede uneventful hurricane seasons, in terms of local TC impacts, whether from CV or “homegrown” (late-season) systems. Perhaps this is related to the fact that the west-coast sea-breeze tends to dominate when the Bermuda High is weak and/or displaced farther north(-east) than it typically is, resulting in very high temperatures over coastal and interior portions of the southern and central peninsula. So maybe this current spate of heat is an auspicious signal for the rest of the hurricane season.

This is another effort to draw desired conclusions from the unknowable. The last time we hit 99 at Tampa was 1985. Elena waves hello. I'm not suggesting we're going to have an Elena scare. That would be silly. As would any other conclusion at this point. We have enough trouble and headaches with a 5 day track. Enjoy the downtime

1985 might be another good analog year considering there was a La Niña. Although I’d expect way more than 11 named storms, more like 18-20. And a slightly higher total in terms of hurricanes and major hurricanes. ACE that year was also fairly low at 88 units which is near normal. ACE this year could be well into the 100’s in my opinion.

Still have at least the slightest bit of uneasy feeling especially for the peninsula of Florida in regards to a Tropical Storm or Hurricane threat this season. I’m more concerned about something coming up from the south and west as opposed to the east from a long tracking Cape Verde type storm like Irma, Frances, or Andrew.

[toad strangler]

This is somewhat anecdotal, but in my experience the hottest summers in South-Central FL tend to precede uneventful hurricane seasons, in terms of local TC impacts, whether from CV or “homegrown” (late-season) systems. Perhaps this is related to the fact that the west-coast sea-breeze tends to dominate when the Bermuda High is weak and/or displaced farther north(-east) than it typically is, resulting in very high temperatures over coastal and interior portions of the southern and central peninsula. So maybe this current spate of heat is an auspicious signal for the rest of the hurricane season.

This is another effort to draw desired conclusions from the unknowable. The last time we hit 99 at Tampa was 1985. Elena waves hello. I'm not suggesting we're going to have an Elena scare. That would be silly. As would any other conclusion at this point. We have enough trouble and headaches with a 5 day track. Enjoy the downtime

1985 might be another good analog year considering there was a La Niña. Although I’d expect way more than 11 named storms, more like 18-20. And a slightly higher total in terms of hurricanes and major hurricanes. ACE that year was also fairly low at 88 units which is near normal. ACE this year could be well into the 100’s in my opinion.

Still have at least the slightest bit of uneasy feeling especially for the peninsula of Florida in regards to a Tropical Storm or Hurricane threat this season. I’m more concerned about something coming up from the south and west as opposed to the east from a long tracking Cape Verde type storm like Irma, Frances, or Andrew.

Irma came from the South. Even though she was a CV system. She still came from the south. The only true E coast landfalls I can think of this century are:

2004 Frances CAT 2
2004 Jeanne CAT 3
2005 Katrina CAT 1

Somebody please correct me if I missed something but I don't think I did. We are at 15 years now without a E Coast hit. tick, tick, tick, tick

We had three huge close calls BUT NO CIGAR this century so far:

2016 Matthew CAT 4
2017 Irma Cat 4
2019 Dorian CAT 5

[psyclone]

Florida (peninsula) has gotten a big break (relatively) in recent history due to a fairly quiet northwest Caribbean. The big hits for peninsular florida are often mid September through October from the south and southwest...you take that from the equation and things are a lot quieter. who knows how long it lasts... I guess until it ends. People are underestimating that risk because recent history permits it. Like a dormant volcano. Eventually it will blow and everyone will be shocked...but the real reason for the astonishment should be the incredible duration of the good luck streak.