Tropical wave along 40W (96L is up)

[CyclonicFury]

The GFS and a few EPS members are hinting at some possible slight development with this wave. SAL and climatology will be a limiting factor, though.

[toad strangler]

Yeah why not. It's always so much fun tracking a non descript AEW all the way across. Ya never know!

[cainjamin]

GFS is slightly developing this on this run. It has a good moisture envelope and does help clear out some of the SAL - possibly as a result, the GFS is developing the next strong wave into a moderate TS in the central ATL.

[CyclonicFury]

12z EPS. Might be a small chance at a very weak short lived TC here, similar to TD 2 (2000). SAL will be a limiting factor.

[floridasun78]

time will tell what we see by weekend of 4

[CyclonicFury]

[Ubuntwo]

[Shell Mound]

:double:
https://i.imgur.com/z8ZkCvx_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

The 00Z ECMWF actually shows a compact tropical storm having developed within the next two days (28 Jun), near ~12°N ~34°W. Many EPS members show a marginal TS developing even faster and farther east than the operational run does. Such a scenario would easily mark the easternmost TS in the MDR on record so early in the calendar-year. By comparison, the closest competitor, Storm Two in 1933, became a TS near ~9°N ~45°W. Given that the “conservative” EC/EPS is unusually bullish relative to the G(E)FS in this case, it is plausible that any named system may become even stronger than the EC/EPS indicates, especially if it is compact and finds a pocket of relatively deep moisture and reduced VWS. I definitely think that we are likely to see Edouard in the MDR within the next two to three days. NHC should probably put an INVEST on the area near ~10°N ~25°W as soon as possible. Already low-level turning is evident in that area, with convection starting to develop, in proximity to the ITCZ, which should lessen the impact of SAL to the north.

[USTropics]

Given the background state, it's very easy to follow this waves potential moisture envelope using TPW on the 00z GFS ensembles forecast. As advertised by the GEFS (and this is a collection of 21 ensemble members), one scenario is a majority of the moisture/wave axis traverses over South America and then Central America (which would be a typical June/July pattern). The second scenario is the wave axis fractures, and a northern piece is left behind:



Same 00z GFS ensembles run (mslp of each member) out to 120 hours:

[GCANE]

Currently very weak and very low.
Has a SAL sweeper ahead of it to its NW. Likely will keep it alive.
Very likely heads west into the southern Carib.
See what happens when it hits 50W.
Same old song and dance, year after year.

[Shell Mound]

Currently very weak and very low.
Has a SAL sweeper ahead of it to its NW. Likely will keep it alive.
Very likely heads west into the southern Carib.
See what happens when it hits 50W.
Same old song and dance, year after year.

https://i.imgur.com/Rk0GBsT.png

https://i.imgur.com/wqSwGpK.png

I think you’re looking at the wrong area. The dynamical models develop the wave near ~10°N ~22°W. There is already a sharp surface trough there.

Edit: Actually, the correct area appears to the vortex around ~8°N ~28°W, based on satellite data and extrapolation relative to the modular projections.

[Nimbus]

SAL sweeper is still there in the water vapor loop and its getting far enough west to start tracking, but like Gcane said NHC will probably just play the odds and wait till longitude 50.

[TheStormExpert]

Surprised there’s no mention on the latest TWO. This has some potential at making a run at Edouard before the month ends.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1276459435951443974

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1276460663104307201

[toad strangler]

Whether this develops or not it should be an eye opener for those who think that SAL bursts shut down everything 100%. AEW's can move along happily in there own bubble of moisture along with nearby SAL for quite a long way.

[NDG]

We might be seeing another case of the Euro being too aggressive like it was with Cristobal. There is simply too much SAL in the Atlantic MDR right now for it to do much if anything if it forms while it is close to the ITCZ but as soon as it gets latitude and moves into the heart of the SAL it will evaporate.

The NHC is dismissing the Euro so far:

[GCANE]

06Z is keeping it lower at 50W

[GCANE]

Crosses the windward islands 108 hrs out

[GCANE]

If it survives the graveyard, 355K PV will be cleared out and could spin up in the west Carb