2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[storminabox]

The Euro ensembles are dreaming of development over in the middle of the SAL in the MDR. There's no way anything will survive as soon as they start getting away from the ITCZ and gain latitude.
SAL is stronger and more widespread than this same time last year.

But there wasn't any development prospects at the same time last year.

[Shell Mound]

The Euro ensembles are dreaming of development over in the middle of the SAL in the MDR. There's no way anything will survive as soon as they start getting away from the ITCZ and gain latitude.
SAL is stronger and more widespread than this same time last year.

But there wasn't any development prospects at the same time last year.

More people should probably read the thread on Beryl from 2018.

[stormlover2013]

The Euro ensembles are dreaming of development over in the middle of the SAL in the MDR. There's no way anything will survive as soon as they start getting away from the ITCZ and gain latitude.
SAL is stronger and more widespread than this same time last year.

But there wasn't any development prospects at the same time last year.

More people should probably read the thread on Beryl from 2018.

Why??

[NDG]

The Euro ensembles are dreaming of development over in the middle of the SAL in the MDR. There's no way anything will survive as soon as they start getting away from the ITCZ and gain latitude.
SAL is stronger and more widespread than this same time last year.

But there wasn't any development prospects at the same time last year.

More people should probably read the thread on Beryl from 2018.

The reason Beryl formed and became a name storm was because it stayed below the 11th latitude close to the ITCZ all the way to the 48th longitude, as soon as it started getting latitude after that it started weakening fast. The Euro ensembles showing it becoming a storm as it gains latitude is just not believable with so much dry air to the north of the 10-12th latitude.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

And today's 12Z runs

[Ubuntwo]

0z GFS has this weird hybrid subtropical thing that gets pretty intense. There's some baroclinic influences for sure but earlier on it seems subtropical.

[MetroMike]

0z GFS has this weird hybrid subtropical thing that gets pretty intense. There's some baroclinic influences for sure but earlier on it seems subtropical.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/726299248861249536/us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2020062700_264_15825_149.png

I'm sure the NHC will name that one next.

[GCANE]

00Z Navgem, 144 hrs out, warm core genesis west Carib

[NDG]

Go out and enjoy your weekend and possibly all the way through the 4th of July weekend, the real season starts after the dust settles down later in July or August unless we get another hybrid starting system again in the mid latitudes.

[Dean4Storms]

Go out and enjoy your weekend and possibly all the way through the 4th of July weekend, the real season starts after the dust settles down later in July or August unless we get another hybrid starting system again in the mid latitudes.

https://i.imgur.com/oPUZHp5.png

Not so fast my fair weather friend Another CCKW is forecast to hit the Western Atlantic basin first half of July and they are notorious for setting off tropical development. I'll be watching the western Carib. and Gulf.

[chaser1]

0z GFS has this weird hybrid subtropical thing that gets pretty intense. There's some baroclinic influences for sure but earlier on it seems subtropical.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/726299248861249536/us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2020062700_264_15825_149.png

I'm sure the NHC will name that one next.

WORD

[jconsor]

Very interesting insights into the possible subtropical/tropical development off the NE US coast in a few days...

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1276959183804534784

[aspen]

Very interesting insights into the possible subtropical/tropical development off the NE US coast in a few days...

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1276959183804534784

Just checked the most recent runs...12z GFS attempts to develop it, while the 12z Euro is successful and has a TC on Thursday.

[aspen]

12z GFS:


12z Euro:



So far, these are the only models that show anything.

[CyclonicFury]

12z GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020062712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_12.png

12z Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020062712/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_5.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020062712/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_6.png

So far, these are the only models that show anything.

12z UKMET has it as well:



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 33.7N 74.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.06.2020 33.7N 74.3W WEAK

00UTC 01.07.2020 34.4N 71.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.07.2020 36.7N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.07.2020 40.3N 65.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 02.07.2020 43.8N 60.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[toad strangler]

So I read this will actually be SAL induced

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1276555548683575311

[CyclonicFury]

Looks like the GFS NW Caribbean storm never materialized, this is another example of why to not trust the GFS for showing development in that region when it is an outlier.

[floridasun78]

Looks like the GFS NW Caribbean storm never materialized, this is another example of why to not trust the GFS for showing development in that region when it is an outlier.

plus so many days out too

[Kingarabian]

Per the GFS and Euro, there might be a chance that something briefly comes off the Panhandle and attempts to form as it ejects ENE.

Here's tonight's 00z Euro closing it off @ 1009mb: