Tropical wave along 40W (96L is up)

[Siker]

There's SAL to the north yes, but the greater issue for this system looks to be SST in the mid-range (assuming the evolution takes place as shown on the GFS and Euro, where the eastern wave develops a vort max and pivots north around a secondary vort to its west). SSTs are marginal north of ~12N beginning at 40W before improving near 45W. The combo of low SST and dry air to the north suggests significant struggles beginning Sunday night through Monday. Shear doesn't look great beyond that point either, though who knows what things will look like in a week when the system should be somewhere north of the Caribbean.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1276459435951443974

It is quite surreal to see credible people talking about a potential long-range CV threat to the U.S. in late June. Anyway, the marginal thermodynamic environment and small size of the incipient vortex remind me a lot of Beryl (2018). In that case the global models struggled to gauge the intensity of the system, owing in part to its compact size and southerly displacement. Note that the very first NHC advisory on Beryl did not expect the system to exceed 35 knots (40 mph) during its brief lifespan, owing to the presence of “abundant dry air...(and) marginally warm waters,” along with the global models’ poor handling of the small circulation. I think that this system could spin up quickly so long as it remains in a low-shear environment and is isolated from the cooler SSTs and drier air to its north, perhaps becoming much stronger in the short term than global models indicate, and then quickly fall apart as it encounters a more hostile environment, including increased interaction with the TUTT, nearer to the islands. My initial guess is that our prospective “Edouard” may become a moderate or strong TS within the next two and a half to three days, then open up into a sheared wave axis near the Leeward Islands.

Some illustrators from the case of Beryl back in 2018 show how low latitude, at least initially, can make all the difference in the world, so to speak:
 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1014500789572816896



 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1014654685339439104



 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1014927729467281409

[chaser1]

Whew folks, you guys are really straining your eyes LOL. Kick back and sip a little lemonade for a day or two and let things evolve a tad.

[Aric Dunn]

Solid Vorticity along the ITCZ with this wave so far. Clear rotation. Looks like it is in between two SAL outbreaks. Reminds of Hurricane Erin 2001. completely sourrounded by SAL.

Farthest east June development coming ? lol

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1276524191404003328

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1276519773732569089

[toad strangler]

Tweets GALORE about this disturbance today. Not because anybody thinks it has an ambitious future but because of WHERE it is and WHEN it is. Often you need systems like this to "set the stage" if you will and that's happening mega early here.



 http://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1276530854915801089

[GCANE]

06Z GFS initializes it in 42 hrs.

[GCANE]

Very strong convergence pushing down on this from the north.
Ain't going nowhere but due west for the next few days.

[GCANE]

Shear in the clear next 72 hrs

[GCANE]

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/vYKx0Nm.gif

pretty sure it is the wave to the east of that one

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/vYKx0Nm.gif

pretty sure it is the wave to the east of that one

Here.

[ouragans]

https://i.imgur.com/vYKx0Nm.gif

pretty sure it is the wave to the east of that one

Pretty sure too. All models initialize a system by 30-35W in 36-48 hrs

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS looks like the 00z run...

GFS is just back and forth.

[ouragans]

This is where it should be in 48 hrs from June 26 0z. It can't be at 30-35W now. It's not even in the TWD

[BYG Jacob]

Whether this develops or not it should be an eye opener for those who think that SAL bursts shut down everything 100%. AEW's can move along happily in there own bubble of moisture along with nearby SAL for quite a long way.

You think people would have learned with Beryl

[tolakram]

0Z Euro, 12Z in about an hour.

[CyclonicFury]

Changed the title to better reflect the disturbance the ECMWF is developing.