2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[CyclonicFury]

The absolute no-no of the tropics: call season canceled over a SAL outbreak before August 15.

[toad strangler]

I feel like SAL is the most overblown indicator when it comes to predicting Atlantic hurricane activity. Every single year there are several SAL outbreaks from June to August. Around August 20 or so, SAL begins to retreat north and becomes less of a negative factor.

Even when SAL is present, that does not mean tropical cyclogenesis is present. If a system is small enough and shear is very low, it can mix out the dry air intrusions.

It's always something here. Last month it was minor neg SST anomalies in the MDR. This month it's SAL. Which is prevalent every year. Even more recent it's SAL killing SST's Almost evey indication I've seen shows warming going forward. We'll see.

[TheStormExpert]

Some good news if it were to persist!

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1276532280043941890

I don't know about you but I'm not here is see slow years. I'm here to see as many storms spin up as possible because they are fun to track and observe. I just hope they stay away from population.

Same here, just trying to be hopeful in this stressful year if you know what I mean.

[TheStormExpert]

The absolute no-no of the tropics: call season canceled over a SAL outbreak before August 15.

Season Cancelled!!

JK!

[Kingarabian]

Regardless, the fact that the models continue to push out TC's wherever possible in the Atlantic is a cause for concern.

[tarheelprogrammer]

One thing to note, years that were hyper active are a mixed bag.

2005 and 1933 for example were early starts to the season

While 2004 and 2017 kind of got going later on

I know quite a bit of comparisons were made to 2005 and 1933 but I believe those comparisons are incorrect. If the season is hyper active it is likely going to look a lot like 2004 or 2017. Just my thoughts on everything. I still like my original numbers of 20/9/5 ACE: 210

At least for now that is

[Steve]

The SAL talk has been obnoxious this year

Record breaking sand plume. No surprises there.

Word. We aren’t being choked by it, but it’s the most SAL influence I’ve ever noticed in New Orleans.

[chaser1]

I'm here in Central Florida. It's a bit hazy but, no need to send the Coast Guard or FEMA Government rations. Call me a crack-pot optimist but I think we're gonna find some way to survive it

[Visioen]

I feel like SAL is the most overblown indicator when it comes to predicting Atlantic hurricane activity. Every single year there are several SAL outbreaks from June to August. Around August 20 or so, SAL begins to retreat north and becomes less of a negative factor.

Even when SAL is present, that does not mean tropical cyclogenesis is present. If a system is small enough and shear is very low, it can mix out the dry air intrusions.

It's always something here. Last month it was minor neg SST anomalies in the MDR. This month it's SAL. Which is prevalent every year. Even more recent it's SAL killing SST's Almost evey indication I've seen shows warming going forward. We'll see.

'It's Always something here. This month it's SAL' : Yeah well of course it's always something, what else would we talk about I haven't seen anyone draw far-fetched conclusions, only people who complain about the talking points... If record SAL isn't worth discussion, then I don't know what is.

[toad strangler]

I feel like SAL is the most overblown indicator when it comes to predicting Atlantic hurricane activity. Every single year there are several SAL outbreaks from June to August. Around August 20 or so, SAL begins to retreat north and becomes less of a negative factor.

Even when SAL is present, that does not mean tropical cyclogenesis is present. If a system is small enough and shear is very low, it can mix out the dry air intrusions.

It's always something here. Last month it was minor neg SST anomalies in the MDR. This month it's SAL. Which is prevalent every year. Even more recent it's SAL killing SST's Almost evey indication I've seen shows warming going forward. We'll see.

'It's Always something here. This month it's SAL' : Yeah well of course it's always something, what else would we talk about I haven't seen anyone draw far-fetched conclusions, only people who complain about the talking points... If record SAL isn't worth discussion, then I don't know what is.

You missed the context by like 18 miles. But all good. What evs

[Visioen]

It's always something here. Last month it was minor neg SST anomalies in the MDR. This month it's SAL. Which is prevalent every year. Even more recent it's SAL killing SST's Almost evey indication I've seen shows warming going forward. We'll see.

'It's Always something here. This month it's SAL' : Yeah well of course it's always something, what else would we talk about I haven't seen anyone draw far-fetched conclusions, only people who complain about the talking points... If record SAL isn't worth discussion, then I don't know what is.

You missed the context by like 18 miles. But all good. What evs

Lol it appears I did

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1276878881430142977

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1276878881430142977

The only two seasons in the top 10 list that weren’t hyperactive are 1987 (activity suppressed due to an El Niño) and 2013 (when the THC decided to just die). June MDR SSTs this year are also higher than 2016, 2018, and 2019, and are comparable to seasons like 1998 and 2017.

[Shell Mound]

A few days ago it wasn't showing that. Also, shear is below normal in the Caribbean, not quite El Niño like.

Why do you think the most recent runs have shifted toward a much stronger TUTT over the MDR? Regarding tracks, the CFSv2 has been quite consistent, along with the UKMET and ECMWF, in suggesting that the highest precipitation stays just offshore of the Southeastern U.S. during ASO. As I mentioned, the ridge, while quite strong, is consistently forecast by the major global models to be displaced too far to the north, allowing TUTT-related weaknesses underneath that allow prospective storms to curve just east of the Southeastern U.S., so the precipitation bands do not penetrate very far inland from the immediate coastline. The long-range dynamical models have been very consistent about this over the past month or so. What could cause this to change?

Please don't use CFS for predicting future tracks.

The UKMET and ECMWF have been showing similar precipitation patterns over the past several runs.

Precipitation patterns don't equate to potential tracks from what I understand.

According to this meteorologist (Dr. Richard James of World Climate Service), they do, since he uses the EC precipitation field to hint at tracks:
 https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1270344884298416128



NMME has been quite consistent in showing the main TC tracks remaining either to the east or to the south of the mainland United States:





Note that the latest run (last image) shows above-average precipitation barely skirting the U.S. coastline, marking a SE shift from earlier runs. The Gulf Coast is much drier, the heaviest precipitation occurs from the Bahamas northward (in the subtropics), and there isn’t any hint of a westward component to the precipitation shield near the U.S. coastline. This means that the latest NMME forecast for ASO, based on a blend of several models, shows a strong ridge that is yet displaced too far to the north for storms to hit the U.S., so that both CV systems and late-season “homegrown” systems in the Caribbean miss the U.S. to the east and/or south.

[SFLcane]

Why do you think the most recent runs have shifted toward a much stronger TUTT over the MDR? Regarding tracks, the CFSv2 has been quite consistent, along with the UKMET and ECMWF, in suggesting that the highest precipitation stays just offshore of the Southeastern U.S. during ASO. As I mentioned, the ridge, while quite strong, is consistently forecast by the major global models to be displaced too far to the north, allowing TUTT-related weaknesses underneath that allow prospective storms to curve just east of the Southeastern U.S., so the precipitation bands do not penetrate very far inland from the immediate coastline. The long-range dynamical models have been very consistent about this over the past month or so. What could cause this to change?

The UKMET and ECMWF have been showing similar precipitation patterns over the past several runs.

Precipitation patterns don't equate to potential tracks from what I understand.

According to this meteorologist (Dr. Richard James of World Climate Service), they do, since he uses the EC precipitation field to hint at tracks:
https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1270344884298416128
NMME has been quite consistent in showing the main TC tracks remaining either to the east or to the south of the mainland United States:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/archive/2020030800/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season5.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/archive/2020040800/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season4.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/archive/2020050800/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season3.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season2.png

Note that the latest run (last image) shows above-average precipitation barely skirting the U.S. coastline, marking a SE shift from earlier runs. The Gulf Coast is much drier, the heaviest precipitation occurs from the Bahamas northward (in the subtropics), and there isn’t any hint of a westward component to the precipitation shield near the U.S. coastline. This means that the latest NMME forecast for ASO, based on a blend of several models, shows a strong ridge that is yet displaced too far to the north for storms to hit the U.S., so that both CV systems and late-season “homegrown” systems in the Caribbean miss the U.S. to the east and/or south.

I get it we have nothing to be concerned about this season. Trying to forecast seasonal tracks with precipitation is not ideal. 4-6 weeks to go before the REAL season starts.

[psyclone]

Peninsular Florida looks wet in all of those depictions. For everyone else...those above normal anomalies are dangerously close and certainly shouldn't provide a sense of security. Beyond that...the Gulf coast and southeast US are normally pretty wet...You could easily squeeze in a hurricane (one that is moving) that drops 5-10" of rain and still have a normal or even somewhat below normal seasonal precip pattern if the rest of the summer yields some precip deficits. These places get lots of precip and the deck can easily be shuffled. If anything there's probably an argument to be made that below normal precip (and the resultant above normal temps and increased solar insolation) actually increases the hurricane danger to the coast by bumping water temps.. especially shelf water temps. That is exactly what happened in September 2018 over Florida and the eastern Gulf...which set the stage for Hurricane Michael..

[TheStormExpert]

Why do you think the most recent runs have shifted toward a much stronger TUTT over the MDR? Regarding tracks, the CFSv2 has been quite consistent, along with the UKMET and ECMWF, in suggesting that the highest precipitation stays just offshore of the Southeastern U.S. during ASO. As I mentioned, the ridge, while quite strong, is consistently forecast by the major global models to be displaced too far to the north, allowing TUTT-related weaknesses underneath that allow prospective storms to curve just east of the Southeastern U.S., so the precipitation bands do not penetrate very far inland from the immediate coastline. The long-range dynamical models have been very consistent about this over the past month or so. What could cause this to change?

The UKMET and ECMWF have been showing similar precipitation patterns over the past several runs.

Precipitation patterns don't equate to potential tracks from what I understand.

According to this meteorologist (Dr. Richard James of World Climate Service), they do, since he uses the EC precipitation field to hint at tracks:
https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1270344884298416128
NMME has been quite consistent in showing the main TC tracks remaining either to the east or to the south of the mainland United States:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/archive/2020030800/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season5.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/archive/2020040800/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season4.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/archive/2020050800/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season3.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season2.png

Note that the latest run (last image) shows above-average precipitation barely skirting the U.S. coastline, marking a SE shift from earlier runs. The Gulf Coast is much drier, the heaviest precipitation occurs from the Bahamas northward (in the subtropics), and there isn’t any hint of a westward component to the precipitation shield near the U.S. coastline. This means that the latest NMME forecast for ASO, based on a blend of several models, shows a strong ridge that is yet displaced too far to the north for storms to hit the U.S., so that both CV systems and late-season “homegrown” systems in the Caribbean miss the U.S. to the east and/or south.

Here you go again with this talk! It literally has the whole Florida peninsula covered in green. If anything this is real reason for concern especially after with what we saw last season with Dorian knocking on Florida’s doorstep and turning abruptly north only 100 miles offshore West Palm Beach. Hopefully you’re right because none of us want to deal with anymore than what we already have going on this year. But I rather be safe than sorry and prepare for the worst while hoping for the best.

[Ubuntwo]

One thing to note, years that were hyper active are a mixed bag.

2005 and 1933 for example were early starts to the season

While 2004 and 2017 kind of got going later on

I know quite a bit of comparisons were made to 2005 and 1933 but I believe those comparisons are incorrect. If the season is hyper active it is likely going to look a lot like 2004 or 2017. Just my thoughts on everything. I still like my original numbers of 20/9/5 ACE: 210

At least for now that is

I'm thinking 2020 will be a balance between the two camps. Producing storms consistently with some early low-end canes unlike 2004/17, but not a harsh and intense early start like 2005.

[jconsor]

Important context re: likely short-term SST trends in the Tropical Atlantic and ENSO region.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1276875504071704576

[jconsor]

Two additional Kelvin waves passing through the Atlantic MDR still showing up rather clearly in EPS velocity potential forecast - one late next week into next weekend, the other around Jul 10:




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1276467544619134977