Tropical wave along 40W (96L is up)

[Ubuntwo]

12z euro doesn't develop this. Vorticity remains too strung out.

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro weaker. but no surprise there. models will go back and forth with these ITCZ systems... it will be a wait and see situation.

[NDG]

Horrible conditions ahead of it if it goes north of the 12th latitude, even the mid level moisture goes north with it the dry air will win. Way too early to be looking this far east unless a vorticity stays near or south of the 10th latitude or a TW makes it towards the western basin.

[floridasun78]

not thing on nhc site yet look their want see models show later runs

[toad strangler]

Horrible conditions ahead of it if it goes north of the 12th latitude, even the mid level moisture goes north with it the dry air will win. Way too early to be looking this far east unless a vorticity stays near or south of the 10th latitude or a TW makes it towards the western basin.

https://i.imgur.com/zYSlSWR.png

Yeah I'd agree. I haven't seen anybody predicting that this is some kind of threat down the road. More just a cool novelty given how early it is. It would be something else for it to develop even for a day.

[Monsoonjr99]

Perhaps the pouch protects this wave or it ingests SAL and dies. We have to wait and see.

With models backing off and NHC still not yet marking this, the latter now seems more likely, but we can't be certain. I'll be generous and give this a 10% chance of becoming a brief June MDR TD like 02L in 2003.

[Ubuntwo]

On newer runs it's pulled further north and earlier. In that case it leaves the moisture of the ITCZ and is devastated by SAL.

[CyclonicFury]

12z ECMWF/EPS much less enthusiastic than previous runs. No NHC mention at 8pm. Looking less likely we'll see anything out of this.

[toad strangler]

12z ECMWF/EPS much less enthusiastic than previous runs. No NHC mention at 8pm. Looking less likely we'll see anything out of this.

18z GFS poofs it within 3 days.

[GCANE]

Much better definition since yesterday

[GCANE]

00Z GFS shows the TPW wave hitting the west Carib in 144 hrs.
Navgem spins it up as a warm core then.

[GCANE]

Keeping an eye on the UL conditions in the GoM by the time the wave gets there.
Run-to-run, looking more favorable for supporting a TC especially if it runs thru the Yucatan channel.

[cycloneye]

The spin is there.

[GCANE]

Nice outflow, embedded in good mid-level moisture.
IMHO, the 500 to 700mb vort appears stronger than what GFS is initializing it as; most likely due to spatial resolution limitations.

[NDG]

The spin is there.

https://i.imgur.com/4Dd6xJE.gif

And the extensive SAL & widespread dust is still there waiting for it to bake it dry as it gains latitude. Many were punked by the Euro and its ensembles before slowly dropping its aggressiveness with it.

[wxman57]

Very little chance of anything developing out of this over the next 5-7 days.

[chaser1]

Very little chance of anything developing out of this over the next 5-7 days.

Agreed, well at least for the next 5 days anyway. Beyond that it'll depend on timing, land interaction (S. America), and whether Uncle SAL overstay's his welcome.

[Shell Mound]

Does anyone know why the EPS was initially so aggressive with this disturbance? Normally the EPS tends to be conservative vs. the GEFS. What happened?

[chaser1]

Does anyone know why the EPS was initially so aggressive with this disturbance? Normally the EPS tends to be conservative vs. the GEFS. What happened?

Wind shear above 12N, SAL above 12N, it's June, Crack Cocaine - take your pick

[Shell Mound]

Does anyone know why the EPS was initially so aggressive with this disturbance? Normally the EPS tends to be conservative vs. the GEFS. What happened?

Wind shear above 12N, SAL above 12N, it's June, Crack Cocaine - take your pick

The EPS is normally adept at forecasting short-term conditions. The EPS evinced a strong, short-term consensus for TC genesis within three days at most. It is very unusual for a normally conservative and relatively reliable dynamical suite to bust so badly within the short term, especially relative to the much less reliable GEFS. In this case the GEFS, for some reason, was much more bearish than the EPS and apparently ended up winning. I would certainly be interested in understanding what factors went into the algorithms that caused the EPS to be so bullish at first.