2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[toad strangler]

We are at the peak of SAL activity right now

 http://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1276894295698571266

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1276894059362050051

[toad strangler]

For reference to your post @cycloneye

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1276894059362050051

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1276894059362050051

What’s the reason behind it cooling? Not that it won’t be more than warm enough come peak season.

[TheStormExpert]

TCHP definitely continues to rise, heck it’s nearly off the charts near the Cayman Islands and to the south of western Cuba!

I’m assuming they fixed the glitch from earlier this month?

[aspen]

TCHP definitely continues to rise, heck it’s nearly off the charts near the Cayman Islands and to the south of western Cuba!

I’m assuming they fixed the glitch from earlier this month?

https://i.ibb.co/yhFvHHD/D48-A65-CC-5-E7-D-49-DB-A727-AE328-DD5-E5-FD.jpg

Looks fixed. If it was still glitched, that pocket of high OHC would extend all the way past Hispaniola or Puerto Rico and encompass most of the Caribbean Sea.

[cycloneye]

TCHP definitely continues to rise, heck it’s nearly off the charts near the Cayman Islands and to the south of western Cuba!

I’m assuming they fixed the glitch from earlier this month?

https://i.ibb.co/yhFvHHD/D48-A65-CC-5-E7-D-49-DB-A727-AE328-DD5-E5-FD.jpg

Is fixed and still is much warmer than 2017.

[psyclone]

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1276894059362050051

What’s the reason behind it cooling? Not that it won’t be more than warm enough come peak season.

The Gulf responds very quickly to local/near term influences. the lack of a winter and anomalous early spring warmth set the stage for the record warm temps earlier. those influences have long since waned. right now the west gulf has cooled off thanks to days of clouds and rain. It will quickly rebound once that pattern abates. The eastern gulf was actually cooled somewhat below normal earlier this month by clouds and rain from Cristobol..but is now quickly jumping back. short term gyrations aside, the gulf will be sufficiently warm for trouble if a storm can take advantage..

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1276894059362050051

What’s the reason behind it cooling? Not that it won’t be more than warm enough come peak season.

The Gulf responds very quickly to local/near term influences. the lack of a winter and anomalous early spring warmth set the stage for the record warm temps earlier. those influences have long since waned. right now the west gulf has cooled off thanks to days of clouds and rain. It will quickly rebound once that pattern abates. The eastern gulf was actually cooled somewhat below normal earlier this month by clouds and rain from Cristobol..but is now quickly jumping back. short term gyrations aside, the gulf will be sufficiently warm for trouble if a storm can take advantage..

Yeah the Gulf is always bath water come August regardless of the year.

[TheStormExpert]

It's also worth noting that the warmest waters in the basin so far reside near Florida and The Bahamas. Currently sitting in the mid-upper 80's!

[FireRat]

I'm really worried about a hurricane or 2 tracking over Cuba and/or South FL from the South or Southeast in September or October. Those waters around Cuba/ FL are and will likely continue being the most primed waters later this season. Think 1948 but with this madness, probably something much nastier. (1924 Cuba, 2008 Gustav, 1846 Cuba-FL Monster, 1960 Donna type stuff.)

I have a hunch that Cuba could be the bulls eye this year, with FL either getting brushed or sharing that bulls eye with Cuba... those SST maps above really support my feeling for the peak season. Basically a big year for the islands followed by Cuba/FL and then either into the gulf or Carolinas, but the peak may be between FL and Cuba. Just a hunch, guys, given the latest indicators, not an official forecast.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1277184222868930562

[aspen]

http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1277184222868930562?s=20

With this upcoming setup and the possibility of SAL winding down, I think it’s increasingly likely we’ll get a MDR system in mid-July.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: I'm really worried about a hurricane or 2 tracking over Cuba and/or South FL from the South or Southeast in September or October. Those waters around Cuba/ FL are and will likely continue being the most primed waters later this season. Think 1948 but with this madness, probably something much nastier. (1924 Cuba, 2008 Gustav, 1846 Cuba-FL Monster, 1960 Donna type stuff.)

I have a hunch that Cuba could be the bulls eye this year, with FL either getting brushed or sharing that bulls eye with Cuba... those SST maps above really support my feeling for the peak season. Basically a big year for the islands followed by Cuba/FL and then either into the gulf or Carolinas, but the peak may be between FL and Cuba. Just a hunch, guys, given the latest indicators, not an official forecast.

I was thinking Florida would be the crossroads of multiple tropical cyclone threats, we shall see if that happens. SE Florida especially is overdue for something significant as I’ve been saying the last week or so.

[Nuno]

:uarrow: I'm really worried about a hurricane or 2 tracking over Cuba and/or South FL from the South or Southeast in September or October. Those waters around Cuba/ FL are and will likely continue being the most primed waters later this season. Think 1948 but with this madness, probably something much nastier. (1924 Cuba, 2008 Gustav, 1846 Cuba-FL Monster, 1960 Donna type stuff.)

I have a hunch that Cuba could be the bulls eye this year, with FL either getting brushed or sharing that bulls eye with Cuba... those SST maps above really support my feeling for the peak season. Basically a big year for the islands followed by Cuba/FL and then either into the gulf or Carolinas, but the peak may be between FL and Cuba. Just a hunch, guys, given the latest indicators, not an official forecast.

I was thinking Florida would be the crossroads of multiple tropical cyclone threats, we shall see if that happens. SE Florida especially is overdue for something significant as I’ve been saying the last week or so.

Lets hope you're both wrong I bought my supplies long ago just in case though.

[FireRat]

Hopefully we are Molinuno!
Good thing you already got your preps, smart move. This is definitely a good year to have early preps just in case, not a good year to hold off until last minute. Covid could make preparations much more troublesome this year.

[toad strangler]

Hopefully we are Molinuno!
Good thing you already got your preps, smart move. This is definitely a good year to have early preps just in case, not a good year to hold off until last minute. Covid could make preparations much more troublesome this year.

I talked about this a month ago. I'm 95% ready for a major hit right now. From gas to food to water to med supplies.... #BePrepared

[SFLcane]

Hopefully we are Molinuno!
Good thing you already got your preps, smart move. This is definitely a good year to have early preps just in case, not a good year to hold off until last minute. Covid could make preparations much more troublesome this year.

I talked about this a month ago. I'm 95% ready for a major hit right now. From gas to food to water to med supplies.... #BePrepared

How can we not be ready after how close SFL came to complete utter devastation with Dorian. I am 100% ready as I always am come June 1.

[toad strangler]

Hopefully we are Molinuno!
Good thing you already got your preps, smart move. This is definitely a good year to have early preps just in case, not a good year to hold off until last minute. Covid could make preparations much more troublesome this year.

I talked about this a month ago. I'm 95% ready for a major hit right now. From gas to food to water to med supplies.... #BePrepared

How can we not be ready after how close SFL came to complete utter devastation with Dorian. I am 100% ready as I always am come June 1.

Yes sir! It sounds like such an easy concept to you, me, and many right here at S2K but we know how humans are. They procrastinate and many don't spend unless they have to. Then when you factor in the pandemic, many just don't have the means. The latter of which concerns me the most.

[GeneratorPower]

I talked about this a month ago. I'm 95% ready for a major hit right now. From gas to food to water to med supplies.... #BePrepared

How can we not be ready after how close SFL came to complete utter devastation with Dorian. I am 100% ready as I always am come June 1.

Yes sir! It sounds like such an easy concept to you, me, and many right here at S2K but we know how humans are. They procrastinate and many don't spend unless they have to. Then when you factor in the pandemic, many just don't have the means. The latter of which concerns me the most.

And the limited quantities available in stores. People need to seriously stock up anything they can find.