ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[GCANE]

Defintely a protected pouch. Nearly at 50W.
Been surrounded by a good mid-level moisture envelop on its journey across the pond.
Convection firing along a dry line which has been sweeping SAL out of the way.
Pretty good for this time of year, maybe a harbinger of stronger waves to come.

[GCANE]

Looking at 250mb level.
TUTT anchored to the north.
96L just south of an associated Anticylonic Rossby Wave Break (ARWB).
Moving into an area of good UL Divergence.
The magic usually happens when waves get to 50W - very classsic.

[GCANE]

Strenghtening TPW convergence.
If convection persists, likely will see a closed circulation.

[alan1961]

First visible of the day, surprised its held on this long with the way the conditions are,
will it crash into south america or sneek into the graveyard and die there

[GCANE]

All the models have been trying to kill this the last couple days.

[Aric Dunn]

pretty amazing we have a fully separated MDR tropical wave this time of year with convection... albeit sheared now since it went to far north. had the shear not increased we would likely be seeing a developing TC.

The southern portion down around the ITCZ still needs to be watched as it is in a better upper environment.


actually the first images from visible this morning are showing a clear vort max with the southern area and MLC slightly offset.

shear and moisture down that way are looking ok for the next couple days. until it lifts north.

[drezee]

pretty amazing we have a fully separated MDR tropical wave this time of year with convection... albeit sheared now since it went to far north. had the shear not increased we would likely be seeing a developing TC.

The southern portion down around the ITCZ still needs to be watched as it is in a better upper environment.


actually the first images from visible this morning are showing a clear vort max with the southern area and MLC slightly offset.

shear and moisture down that way are looking ok for the next couple days. until it lifts north.

Indeed, the first visibles are telling. It has about 36 to 48 hours to organize and gain some latitude.

[GCANE]

pretty amazing we have a fully separated MDR tropical wave this time of year with convection... albeit sheared now since it went to far north. had the shear not increased we would likely be seeing a developing TC.

The southern portion down around the ITCZ still needs to be watched as it is in a better upper environment.


actually the first images from visible this morning are showing a clear vort max with the southern area and MLC slightly offset.

shear and moisture down that way are looking ok for the next couple days. until it lifts north.

Yesterday, I saw a hefty outflow boundary coming up from the south to nail the southern-portion of the vort max.
Looks like it survived this morning - amazing.

[GCANE]

Looks like its firing off a tower at 10.5N 49.1W

[GCANE]

700mb vort strengthening and organizing

[wxman57]

I'd give this wave close to a 0% chance of developing.

[GCANE]

Actually looks good on multi-satellite IR analysis.
Appears wind field just above the boundary layer (~700mb) is closed off.

[GCANE]

Moderate convection firing directly over the CoC.
IR satellite indicates convection to the north of the CoC, along 10N, is gradually strengthening.

[northjaxpro]

I have to say that 96L has really suprised me in preserving its structure and fighting off the SAL, which I had thought would have taken its toll on it by his time just 36 hours ago. It is so very difficult for waves to come out of the MDR this early in the season in late June, so to see 96L doing this well is quite impressive to say the least.

It will be very interesting to see if and how much longer 96L will persevere as it traverses westward, especially as it approaches the Caribbean later in the week. We shall see. 96L may surprise after all.

[Aric Dunn]

Actually looks good on multi-satellite IR analysis.
Appears wind field just above the boundary layer (~700mb) is closed off.


https://i.imgur.com/DcYYfjy.gif

https://i.imgur.com/qZ4bUBk.gif

yeah it definitely trying this morning... it has a good buffer zone from the SAL do to the wave to the east of it.

main thing holding it back right now is the mid level easterly shear .. if that subsides a little this will have a better chance.

[GCANE]

Strong rain rate

[drezee]

I'd give this wave close to a 0% chance of developing.

Climo, SAL, and common sense agree...but we have all seen crazier things

[GCANE]

Satellite albedo imagery seems to show cirrus is dissipating somewhat.
Lower level clouds becoming exposed.
A definite arc to them.

[GCANE]

50W and right at the end of the African Easterly Jet.
Moving into an area of good mid-to-upper level divergence.

[Aric Dunn]

Deep convection firing over that earlier vort max....