EPAC: FOUR-E - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

SAB 2.0/2.0... Cmon NHC. We've seen worse!

[Kingarabian]

Don't even need ASCAT confirmation lol. It's nicely sheared to show the LLC.

[cycloneye]

No upgrade at 2 PM PDT.

[aspen]

I don’t care what the NHC says (or, in this case, doesn’t say), I’m counting this towards 2020’s totals.

[Yellow Evan]

[Monsoonjr99]

Looks better than Barry.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula have become slightly less organized
since late this morning. This system, however, could still become
a short-lived tropical depression later today or tonight before it
moves over cooler waters and into an area of less favorable
upper-level winds on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

Probably borderline tropical storm. Looks as good as Dolly!

[Yellow Evan]

29/2330 UTC 20.4N 112.4W T1.5/2.0 95E -- East Pacific

[Nancy Smar]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 20.5N 112.6W at
30/0300 UTC moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted within 120 nm in the NE quadrant of the low with
additional scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
elsewhere from 12N to 21N between 107W and 114W. A large area of
seas to 9 ft in S-SW swell surrounds the low center. The
depression is forecast to maintain through Tue, then will become
a remnant low by Tue night, dissipating by early Thu. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for
more details.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020
900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020

The circulation associated with the area of low pressure located
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has
become better defined over the past 24 hours, and the system has
maintained convection for much of the past 12 hours. Although the
convection has not been particularly well organized at times today,
a new burst of convection developed just northeast of the low-level
center late this afternoon and has been persistent over the past
several hours. Based on these observations and Dvorak T-number of
1.5 from TAFB and 2.0 from SAB, the system is being designated as a
30-kt tropical depression. The system is expected to be a short-
lived tropical cyclone as it will be moving into an area of
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and over SSTs of around
24 degrees Celsius by Tuesday morning. As a result, the depression
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday. The NHC
wind speed prediction follows the trend of the intensity guidance
and also calls for the remnant low to dissipate in 2 to 3 days.

The depression is moving slowly northwestward around the western
portion of a mid-level ridge that extends westward over central
Mexico. The cyclone should continue moving on the same general
heading with some reduction in forward speed as it weakens and is
steered by the weaker low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is
near the middle of the guidance envelope in best agreement
with the HFIP corrected consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 20.5N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 21.1N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 21.4N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1200Z 21.6N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0000Z 21.8N 113.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

Worth pointing out that genesis at this latitude is quite unusual in any month other than September. Could be a sign for the rest of the season.

[Yellow Evan]

Classic somewhat sheared but also fueled by poleward outflow look.

[TheStormExpert]

Should be gone in less than 24hrs.

[aspen]

Hey, at least it’s something. Might be the last EPac system we get for a few weeks.

[Astromanía]

Should be gone in less than 24hrs.

Ahhh but if this was an Atlantic system in the middle of the ocean as well then this would have already 20 pages in this forum

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020
300 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Deep convection associated with the depression has waned since last
night and is now limited to a small burst displaced more than
75 n mi northeast of the cyclone's low-level center. An ASCAT-B pass
at 0517 UTC showed max winds of only 20-25 kt, so the intensity has
been lowered to 25 kt. The cyclone is now located over 24 deg C
waters and substantial redevelopment or organization of convection
is unlikely. It is therefore forecast to become a remnant low later
today. The remnant low should then spin down over the course of the
next couple of days until it dissipates later this week.

The depression has continued to move slowly northwestward, steered
by a mid-level ridge to its east. Once the cyclone becomes a remnant
low later today, weak low-level steering flow will likely cause the
system to meander for a few days until it dissipates. The NHC
forecast (both track and intensity) is mostly unchanged from the
previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 20.6N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 20.9N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/0600Z 21.0N 113.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1800Z 21.2N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0600Z 21.6N 114.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[wxman57]

Convection has dissipated. It was likely a TS on Sunday when ScatSat had a couple 35kt winds. Started weakening early Monday and was nearly a remnant low when it was finally classified as a TD.

[Yellow Evan]

it’s not a remnant low until there’s been no deep convection for ~12 hours. This narrative you push needs to die quite frankly. Given ASCAT never registered more than 25 knots, it’s also hard for me to imagine this being a TS.