2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[NDG]

Is going to ruin beach plans for many this 4th of July weekend, is mother nature controlling the crowds at the FL beaches that decided not to close like in SE FL

[NDG]

I am not too sure there will be a well organized developing system in the NE GOM, the GFS and Euro keep the h85 vorticity inland over northern FL and when I look at the GFS closely it keeps the low pressure center right along the coast line for less than a 24 hr period, not enough time for it to organize much. Nothing but a good set up of converging westerly winds in the NE GOM to produce lots of rain over the weekend in northern FL.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

[aspen]

The GFS still wants a TC/STC at 40N/60W. It’s still showing this forming on Saturday, in only 66-72 hours.

The Euro and CMC show that associated vorticity but it’s more stretched out, especially in the CMC run.

[GCANE]

Apalachee Bay 96 hrs out.
Troposphere saturated sea surface to tropopause.
Zero shear.

[storm4u]

One ensemble member take a 994mb low along the outer banks and tracks it to Cape Cod.
Watching what further runs do.

https://i.imgur.com/E3DDrq6.png

Do you have think link for this I cant find it in my favorites. Thank you

[crownweather]

One ensemble member take a 994mb low along the outer banks and tracks it to Cape Cod.
Watching what further runs do.

https://i.imgur.com/E3DDrq6.png

Do you have think link for this I cant find it in my favorites. Thank you

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html

[TheProfessor]

The 6z GFS kept things interesting once the main system moves out. It takes some left over energy and initially moves it northward in Alabama before sending it south/southwestward back into the Gulf. It then takes a track somewhat similar to Barry. It stays weak for the most part, but that area of the Gulf doesn't look too bad for development at that time so I wouldn't put too much stock in how it evolves right now.

Bottom line is that there's going to be a lot of rain for the southeast and Gulf coast, especially in parts of Florida. There could be multiple rounds of stronger vorticities taking hold and focusing heavy rain in specific rain. Once we move outside of 5 days there's a lot uncertainty, so a lot can change.

[plasticup]

Apalachee Bay 96 hrs out.
Troposphere saturated sea surface to tropopause.
Zero shear.

https://i.imgur.com/G8syzXE.png

Well that sure gets my attention.

[psyclone]

Sea temps in the extreme eastern gulf are roasting thanks to weeks of relentless sun and exceptionally below normal rainfall. These waters are shallow and subject to attainment of extreme temps in anomalous weather patterns. The fuel is spent quickly due to the shallow nature (the water equivalent of flash fuel for a wildfire)...but in the right situation it is dangerous...such temps are responsible for torrential rain events around here and can quickly supercharge a tropical system. water temps from the keys all the way to the big bend reside near 90. At the very least we are entitled to an episode of Catatumbo style lightning.. Needless to say I am watching with interest if only for local interests like needed rain and low temps back below 80..

[aspen]

12z GFS is still showing two systems developing within the next week, the one near 40N/60W at ~72 hours and the Gulf/SEUS system at 120-150 hours. Both are weak tropical storms, but both will likely be tracking around the Gulf Stream, and look what that did to Dolly.

[GCANE]

Huge 6000 CAPE ridge parking itself over the lower MS River

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS barely even develops this now after significant development was shown on the overnight 00z GFS run.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1278373990965395457

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Models looking very unimpressive today... we'll see.

[aspen]

12z Euro is a little better with Saturday’s possible system but still has several areas of vorticity instead of a single one. Either one of those will break off of that front and quickly spin up, or the front will spawn a more confined area of vorticity like the GFS keeps showing.

[GCANE]

12Z GFS 96 hrs out.
Vort solid in the water.

[GCANE]

Myrtle Beach may take the brunt of this.

[AnnularCane]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1278373990965395457

I was just wondering that myself. I know the Atlantic wouldn't normally be very busy now, but what's going on with the Pacific? Is it just La Nina or something more?