Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast (Is Invest 98L)

[Aric Dunn]

Big 5000 CAPE ridge extends from the GOM along the TX/LA Border to the OK/AR border.
Appears the strong MCV in northern AR will track down that ridge possibly into the GOM.

an interesting thing about all this is the continued shift westward in the convective complexes from even yesterday.

[GCANE]

Supercells developing in the SE portion of AR.
Looks intense: tons of lightning and patterns indicate high helicity.
Could be the one dropping down into the GOM.

[GCANE]

Big 5000 CAPE ridge extends from the GOM along the TX/LA Border to the OK/AR border.
Appears the strong MCV in northern AR will track down that ridge possibly into the GOM.

an interesting thing about all this is the continued shift westward in the convective complexes from even yesterday.

Absolutely, a longer time for a system to be in the water.

[GCANE]

Strengthening 850mb vort south of the panhandle

[Ubuntwo]

Big 5000 CAPE ridge extends from the GOM along the TX/LA Border to the OK/AR border.
Appears the strong MCV in northern AR will track down that ridge possibly into the GOM.

an interesting thing about all this is the continued shift westward in the convective complexes from even yesterday.

Absolutely, a longer time for a system to be in the water.

Also keeps the systems from emerging off the SE coast earlier, greatly reducing the chances of any tropical cyclogenesis there.

[GCANE]

That vort south of the panhandle is associated with the tail end of the New England trof that is moving out to sea.
Those towers that fired this afternoon may have been enough to create a cut-off vort.

[Aric Dunn]

Big 5000 CAPE ridge extends from the GOM along the TX/LA Border to the OK/AR border.
Appears the strong MCV in northern AR will track down that ridge possibly into the GOM.

an interesting thing about all this is the continued shift westward in the convective complexes from even yesterday.

Absolutely, a longer time for a system to be in the water.

18z euro dips the vorticity well offshore compared to the previous runs. still south of panama city which does not line up with current convective progression. then turns back north fairly quick.

like I mentioned yesterday. convective clusters such as these have a tendency to travel farther along the path of momentum than forecast... as we have already seen..

[Aric Dunn]

That vort south of the panhandle is associated with the tail end of the New England trof that is moving out to sea.
Those towers that fired this afternoon may have been enough to create a cut-off vort.

https://i.imgur.com/OEeZYY3.png

tear drop after tear drop..

have to watch to see if any of them pinch off.

[GCANE]

Very impressive how that Arkansas system is coming together.
Going to be moving into relatively strong lapse-rate air.

[Ubuntwo]

0z ICON now makes this a depression. Considering prior EPS support it's got a small window to do so, but it's very unlikely to get any stronger than that.

[Aric Dunn]

possible twin systems..

with the 00z GFS.. in 48 hours..

[Ubuntwo]

0z GFS

Shortly looks subtropical before transitioning.


Yes indeed

[Ubuntwo]

So far the 0z euro is a big south shift. By h24 a circ develops offshore of Panama City. It hangs around for two days, with vorticity slowly increasing before moving onshore @ h72. More support for some possible development there.

[Shell Mound]

So far the 0z euro is a big south shift. By h24 a circ develops offshore of Panama City. It hangs around for two days, with vorticity slowly increasing before moving onshore @ h72. More support for some possible development there.

Given the anomalously warm SSTs and TCHP/OHC over the (north-)eastern Gulf of Mexico, I think there is a higher-than-normal likelihood of TC genesis within the next three to five days (6–8 June), especially to the immediate south of the Florida Panhandle. Low-level ridging will be impinging on the region from the east, yielding low-level convergence and deeper moisture pooling from the Caribbean, juxtaposed with vorticity and instability along the decaying frontal boundary. The northeastern GoM is actually the climatological “hotspot” for TC genesis in the month of July, thanks to the influence of weakening fronts and MCS/MCV activity over warming waters. Years that featured tropical cyclones of TS status or greater within 100 mi of Pensacola, FL, during the month of July include: 1862, 1870, 1887, 1896, 1916, 1919, 1936, 1948, 1994, 1997, and 2005.
 https://twitter.com/KyleNoel15/status/1278452500400570369




For the record:
 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1275466180019421189

[GCANE]

Low-Level Vort: Apalachee Bay
Mid-Level Vort: South of Mobile Bay
Strong interaction seen at 700mb

[GCANE]

A couple towers firing off in the Bay

[northjaxpro]

As I expected, we are seeing the beginning of an convective complex taking shape early this morming in Apalachee Bay.

The next vorticity currently coming.out of Arkansas will reach the Louisiana coast by late tonight and emerge off the coast. It is looking to me that the next vort will sink south just far enough from the coast to set the stage to ignite cyclogenesis during the day tomorrow.

Looking at the wind shear analysis early this morning, conditions in the Apalachee Bay region look quite conducive for TC development, with wind shear looking light, depicted only at 10KT across the area. Plus, with sea surface temperatures approachng near 90 degrees in the Gulf, we just could have about as good a set up you.can have for a quickly developing tropical cyclone this weekend.

Things are getting more and more interesting as time progresses. Tomorrow looks really.intriguing for yours truly.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

There seems to be a bit of mild vorticity and convection south of the Mississippi delta in addition to the previously-mentioned activity in Apalachee Bay. Certainly an area to watch as the day progresses.

[GCANE]

A pocket of increasing CAPE air just SW of the Apalachee Bay convection. Currently at 3500.
Another pocket, at 4000, just west of the MS Delta convection.
Likely to increase during the day today.
Convection inhibition currently on shore. Will likely break later today and popup thunderstorms could fire overland this afternoon.
Convective debris from these will likely entrain into the offshore vorts overnight and could help with TC genesis tomorrow.
Satellite imagery shows lower levels full of moisture.
Now seeing a refire of another tower in Apalachee Bay.
Diurnal surface-pressure max due around mid day today.
Chances increase this afternoon for more vort spinup.
Here's the latest sounding from New Orleans at 00Z.

[northjaxpro]

Just a quick mention,.but I had to make note of the interesting area of disturbed weather to the northeast.of the Bahamas this morning. It is looking pretty good, and we may see a tropical cyclone potential there this weekend as it moves out to sea.

Back to our GOM disturbance.......