Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast (Is Invest 98L)

[Aric Dunn]

Low level Vorticity increasing with the convection south of Louisiana. The tear drop flow is staarting to sharpen.

.. that large convective burts diving south over land should further push all this off shore. And further

Sharpen the tear drop.

I really like saying tear drop.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

Just a quick mention,.but I had to make note of the interesting area of disturbed weather to the northeast.of the Bahamas this morning. It is looking pretty good, and we may see a tropical cyclone potential there this weekend as it moves out to sea.

Back to our GOM disturbance.......

I dont see another thread for that area.. but it sure appears to have a closed much more defined circ this morning..

[tailgater]

According to the 06 Gfs the North-central to NE GOM will be in a moist air mass for over ten days. Some rain is needed, let’s hope no one gets too much. 12z rolling out now, I’ll trust it more than the 06z run,

[OuterBanker]

Still mentioned in our local NWS discuss.
“.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 AM Friday...Upper ridging will extend east into the
area Saturday. Bermuda high pressure to the east re-establishes
itself on Sunday, before low pressure forms over the Deep South
late in the weekend then moves slowly along or off the NC coast
early through late next week resulting in unsettled weather for
most of the upcoming week.”

But, no longer any mention about the difference between the Euro and GFS.

Until we get a well formed llc with mlc support where the models can get a handle on it will we see consistency between the models.

Until then it’s anybody’s guess.

[TheProfessor]

Not sure if it was mentioned, but the 0z Parallel GFS does try to develop the energy in the Gulf, but it moves back inland too quickly before anything concrete can develop. The thing to watch will be how far south the energy gets in the short term. The further south it gets, the better chance there is for something to develop.

[Aric Dunn]

12z Variation of the HRRR model out 48 hours. showing what appears to be a deepening TD/TS

being this will be a mesoscale development situation and how well the HRRR model variations did with our first 3 named systems this year...

this run is interesting as it has the current convection over the central gulf modeled very well.

10m winds


Reflectivity

[northjaxpro]

The final piece of the puzzle is currently drifting S/SE in Southwestern Arkansas and in the process of traversing into Northern Louisiana, as seen on the WV imagery. This vorticity should move off the Louisisna coast by early tomorrow morning. This energy, as I have analyzed in my previous post, I believe will get far enough south into the Northeast GOM during the day tomorrow.and will be the kicker to promote cyclogenesis there. I think the HRRR is on to something and overall, I think the reliable models are underestimating the dynamics I have pointed to earlier, which are there in place for this system to really develop during the next couple of days.

[Steve]

All the storms have been NW and SW of here. Im kind of glad for once. Flood warnings are down in Lafourche Parish (Raceland, Lockport).

https://www.weather.gov/lix/

[tropicwatch]

Starting to see a little change here in Panama City. Our afternoon thunderstorms are no longer traveling west to east. They have started drifting east to west. Winds have been light and variable today.

[psyclone]

Hard to get excited about much when there's no mention for possible 5 day development from the NHC. Just hoping for some needed rain and more modest temps. watching with interest

[Aric Dunn]

Starting to see a little change here in Panama City. Our afternoon thunderstorms are no longer traveling west to east. They have started drifting east to west. Winds have been light and variable today.

yeah mid level ridging is sbuilding in.. That will start the overall broad rotation .
over the gulf.

[Nimbus]

I'll be watching the buoy at Pilot's Station East, SW Pass, LA
Surface pressure is still up around 29.93 and the winds haven't shifted around there yet.
Wind should be from the SE if the lowest surface pressure cuts off where we think it will late Saturday.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=PSTL1

[Aric Dunn]

Latest hourly HRRR run showing some vorticity increasing even farther SW as this current convective cluster pulses down then back up over night...

the progression of the HRRR has been interesting today.

[Aric Dunn]

have to start watching south of the mouth of mississsippi river to panama city overnight. surface obs pointing some meso scale features that should lead to a significant burst of convection overnight...and with light easterly flow to the north and sw flow to the south .. a broad rotation already exists.

any sustained deep convection would likely tighten up into something pretty quickly.

[tropicwatch]

have to start watching south of the mouth of mississsippi river to panama city overnight. surface obs pointing some meso scale features that should lead to a significant burst of convection overnight...and with light easterly flow to the north and sw flow to the south .. a broad rotation already exists.

any sustained deep convection would likely tighten up into something pretty quickly.

I have noticed the slight broad rotation of showers the past couple of hours here in the panhandle.

[northjaxpro]

have to start watching south of the mouth of mississsippi river to panama city overnight. surface obs pointing some meso scale features that should lead to a significant burst of convection overnight...and with light easterly flow to the north and sw flow to the south .. a broad rotation already exists.

any sustained deep convection would likely tighten up into something pretty quickly.

The next vort dropping down through extreme NE TX and into Louisiana should reach and the coast by 12Z tomorrow morning. Once it does it should kick start the convection.

Tomorrow will be an interesting day observing buoys in the Northeast Gulf and surface obs in and around that region for sure.

[GCANE]

A larger number of stations in the Panhandle and south Georgia showing surface winds rotating to the east now.
Stations in the GOM, out of the west.
MS Delta out of the NW.
Solid LL Vort

Buoy south of Dauphin Island indicates diurnal pressure should peak in about 6 hrs.
Afterwards, the pressure drop should be conducive for vort consolidation.

Watching the convection and CAPE.

[GCANE]

[northjaxpro]

An elongated 850 mb vortex lies this morning from Southern MS southwest into the Northeast GOM to south of Panama City currently. It will not move much the next 12-18 hours, as the models have the system to move north late tonight and inland by Sunday afternoon.

Mid- Level energy moving out of Southern Louisiana and moving south off the coast currently. This should help kick start and fire convection throughout the day in the region. Broad rotation very evident currently south of the coast of the AL/ FL Panhandle coast. 1011 mb Low Pressure analyzed at the surface on the 06Z WPC/NHC surface observation


It will be a interesting day of following buoy obs in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico.This system has a very short window to try to organize before traversing inland late Sunday evening, about 36 hour period or so.. So let's see if it can attain an invest tag from NHC or possibly at least a TD designation while in the NE.GOM.

Happy 4th of July today everyone!

[Aric Dunn]

looks what we have here.. developing Circ alert.. lol

MId level circ is present. level inflow is buckling. convection increasing..


and let the fun begin.