ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040357
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1200 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss potential
tropical development of low pressure system southwest of Bermuda.

An area of thunderstorms has persisted near the center of a small
low pressure system located more than 300 miles southwest of
Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that
winds have increased and that the circulation has become better
defined. If this recent development trend continues, then a tropical
depression could form overnight or early Saturday while the system
moves eastward at about 15 mph. By Sunday night, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
significant development to occur. Interests in Bermuda should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Stewart

[Aric Dunn]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040357
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1200 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss potential
tropical development of low pressure system southwest of Bermuda.

An area of thunderstorms has persisted near the center of a small
low pressure system located more than 300 miles southwest of
Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that
winds have increased and that the circulation has become better
defined. If this recent development trend continues, then a tropical
depression could form overnight or early Saturday while the system
moves eastward at about 15 mph. By Sunday night, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
significant development to occur. Interests in Bermuda should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Stewart

a little surprised they did a STWO .. only two hours until 2 am..

they do like to go up incrementally... 2am might go up to 60 percent or more.

only debate really is if its a TS..

a TD is pretty much a given.

[Chris90]

The thing to remember with ASCAT is that I believe it's been stated by a couple pros that it can under sample and have a low bias, especially with smaller, tighter circulations. There might be some 35-45kt winds, just not in a very large area, so ASCAT would have trouble resolving it. I think the ATL is going to celebrate the 4th by giving us Edouard.

Off topic real quick, but Happy 4th to all of you as well and I hope you all have a wonderful and safe holiday weekend!

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1279265024314208257

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Unfortunately for 97L, shear has taken its toll on the convection, displacing it to the south and west of the center. There might be another small window between now and tomorrow evening for it to make a run for TS status, but I feel like that scenario is looking increasingly unlikely.

I'm not ruling it out though; I've been proven wrong by doing that before. It seems like we'll just have to wait and see.

[Sciencerocks]

Got gutted.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iGbpuKpGt0

[JetFuel_SE]

New convection.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small area of low pressure located about 300 miles west-southwest
of Bermuda continues to produce persistent showers and
thunderstorms. The system appears to be getting better organized,
and if current trends continue, it could become a tropical
depression later today or tonight while it moves east-northeastward
or northeastward at about 15 mph. Environmental conditions are
expected to become unfavorable for further development by late
Sunday. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[northjaxpro]

Ouch... 97L ģot stretched overnight , after having a very nice looking compact LLC with deep convection.

Small cyclones like these can ramp up quickly, but they can also decline quickly as well because its small size makes their enviŕonment much more susceptible to feel adverse conditions when it presents itself. This is why they are so extremely challenging to analyze. Convection is pulsating again this morning near the LLC, so it will be interesting to see if 97L can recover. But time is its enemy now as hostile shear is awaiting it in about the next 24 -36 hours.

I think there may be just enough of window of time to possibly see Edouard from this. We will see.

[plasticup]

First visible looks good. I don’t suppose there is any chance of some recon - can be really useful with these tiny systems.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like a big blow up right near the center this morning. It still could get there.

[CyclonicFury]

Station 41048
NDBC
Location: 31.831N 69.573W
Date: Sat, 4 Jul 2020 13:30:00 UTC
Winds: E (80°) at 5.8 kt gusting to 9.7 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.86 in

[Kazmit]

Starting to come into view on the Bermuda radar, which recently got expanded to 500km.
http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=500KM%20PPI&user=

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1279416573774532610

[Nancy Smar]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1279416573774532610

AL, 05, 2020070412, , BEST, 0, 309N, 694W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 016, TRANSITIONED, alA72020 to al052020,

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1279416573774532610

If TD5 becomes Edouard today, it will be the earliest 5th named storm on record, beating out Emily ‘05 by exactly a week.

[TheStormExpert]

Welp, it's only July 4th and we've already had 5 Tropical Cyclones. So much for season cancel.

[Aric Dunn]

Should become Edouard today. convection building nicely around the center. still has plenty of time with decent environment.

[northjaxpro]

Yes. This likely will be designated Edouard this afternoon or early this evening.

The cyclone really re-organizng quite well late this morning!

[toad strangler]

It looks great!
It looks like crap
It's coming back!
It's all stretched out
It'll be named later today!

Ahhhh almost in mid season form here at S2K