Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast (Is Invest 98L)

[PTrackerLA]

looks what we have here.. developing Circ alert.. lol

MId level circ is present. level inflow is buckling. convection increasing..


and let the fun begin.

https://i.ibb.co/Jq8MR9w/888888.gif

Definitely looks suspicious, will be interesting to see what happens when the afternoon convection fires up over land.

[Aric Dunn]

If that convection can continue to build long enough for the pressure to drop even a little. then a surface circ will take shape pretty quick.

surface obs are already starting to swing around.

the difficult wind component with be from the SE for this..

but it is looking good so far..

[GCANE]

Station south of Dauphin Island showing winds swinging to NW and increasing to 20 knots.
Closing up around the convection.
Very little steeing, if any, with the stalled front.
Looks like its deep enough and will be long enough in the water to spin up.

[northjaxpro]

Indeed. I signed in earlier this morning before daybreak and the energy that came through overnight and came off shore the Louisiana coast has spun up this morning. Convection cintinues to increase here. There is also the vort off the coast which is also generating convection off the Florida Panhandle .

We have competing vortices and it will be interesting to see which one of these tries to become the dominant one today into tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Indeed. I signed in earlier this morning before daybreak and the energy that came through overnight and came off shore the Louisiana coast has spun up this morning. Convection cintinues to increase here. There is also the vort off the coast which is also generating convection as well. of the Florida Panhandle .

We have competing vortices and it will be interesting to see which one of these tries to become the dominant one today into tonight.

The convection off LA has a couple more things going for it.. there is a Mid level circ co located and convection is already more organized. it is also dropping ESE/SE moving away from the coast.

it also has the rotational energy of rotating around the larger borad circ along the south coast of the US>

[GCANE]

First time I've seen a feed of high-TPW air coming from Oklahoma

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Indeed. I signed in earlier this morning before daybreak and the energy that came through overnight and came off shore the Louisiana coast has spun up this morning. Convection cintinues to increase here. There is also the vort off the coast which is also generating convection as well. of the Florida Panhandle .

We have competing vortices and it will be interesting to see which one of these tries to become the dominant one today into tonight.

The convection off LA has a couple more things going for it.. there is a Mid level circ co located and convection is already more organized. it is also dropping ESE/SE moving away from the coast.

it also has the rotational energy of rotating around the larger borad circ along the south coast of the US>

Well, if convection continues to persist with the vortex south of Louisiana, I agree there lies the best chance to see development. It would give the system to stay over the warm waters of yhe Northeast GOM much longer than the area off the coast of the Florida Panhandle.

I

[GCANE]

The area SW of the MS Delta showing better surface convergence and angular momentum at 700 to 500mb.
However there is a strong 250mb jet over it.
Going to need a good hot tower to kick this off.
If it does however, could get a lot of people excited quickly.
Not out of the question, watching CAPE.
SE of Houston is usually the hottest CAPE area in the GOM.
Right now its 4000. Another 1000 and the fireworks could start.
Would be really weird to see a feeder band coming from Oklahoma.

[tropicwatch]

Thinking the area in the Panhandle will have its shot off the Atlantic southeast coast and the area south of Louisiana will have the best chances of development in the gulf.

[northjaxpro]

Thinking the area in the Panhandle will have its shot off the Atlantic southeast coast and the area south of Louisiana will have the best chances of development in the gulf.

I concur!

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like a secondary curved cloud line( inflow) is developing on the NW side...

looking very interesting..

[GeneratorPower]

Looks like a secondary curved cloud line( inflow) is developing on the NW side...

looking very interesting..

https://i.ibb.co/1JcfMpq/Capture.png

SW Florida is desperately looking for rain and I wish this thing would come farther south. Not looking good really with ensembles showing it through the Big Bend.

[northjaxpro]

This trough boundary has been loaded with vigorous vortices. It has already produced TD5 and now we are monitoring the two competing vortices in the Northeast GOM.

Also , there is vorticity along the stationary boundary which has developed a 1012 mb Low just off the NE Florida coast.

Lots to monitor on this July 4 holiday.

[abk_0710]

Do we see any of this convection making it on shore for the 4th of July fireworks around New Orleans this evening?

[tropicwatch]

Maybe a lemon for the Gulf of Mexico in the next TWO.

[Aric Dunn]

The vortex south of LA is becoming quite sharp.

a little more convection and it would likely close off.

should not have a hard time doing so. the MLC is right over it. so any convection would tap into that MLC and help close it off at the surface.

[MGC]

Convection south of Apalachicola is showing some spin this morning. Likely to move inland before anything becomes of it though......MGC

[GCANE]

5000 CAPE now SW of Tampa Bay.
If LL Vort increases south of Mobile Bay, a good part of that unastable air would get entrained.
250mb showing good diveregence.

[psyclone]

There's definitely some rotation in the ne gulf. Most intense convection is overland...boosted by daytime heating. Meanwhile...still waiting for shower here. maybe later today..

[Aric Dunn]

HRRR variation...

favors the western vort. really does great job initializing both vorts at the beginning. moves the NE gulf vort inland and weakens allows the area south of LA to take over.

12z Euro also has switched to the western VORT.