When will the first major hurricane form?

[cycloneye]

This poll has more options for the members to vote than other polls and will be open until July 5 at 12:23 PM EDT.

I voted August 21-31.

[Shell Mound]

1–10 September, in the MDR

[cycloneye]

This poll is still open for those who have not voted yet and will remain open until July 5th at 12:23 PM EDT.

[chaser1]

Following a typical mid-season July lull, perhaps a scary Faycation for some in the Caribbean

[TheStormExpert]

Following a typical mid-season July lull, perhaps a scary Faycation for some in the Caribbean

We shall see!

[chaser1]

Following a typical mid-season July lull, perhaps a scary Faycation for some in the Caribbean

We shall see!

Well, I was wrong about Fay but now thinking HANNAH Montana (.....Montana Redonda that is, a resort located in Miches DR) in August.

[CyclonicFury]

August 23 (Isaias)

[TheStormExpert]

August 23 (Isaias)

Is not liking that name either. It’s been several years since we’ve seen a really intense threatening “I” storm.

[aspen]

I originally voted August 21-31, but now I’m thinking there’s a decent shot of whatever forms in the W Caribbean or the Gulf after late July becoming a major hurricane. SSTs/OHC are very high in the region, SAL is winding down, and assuming shear remains low, the environment in that region could be very favorable for a powerful system to take advantage of.

[CyclonicFury]

Doesn't look like it will be in the August 11-20 timeframe unless something very unexpected occurs. August 21-30 is still possible, considering the MJO will be in a more favorable position for the Atlantic by then.

[chaser1]

Doesn't look like it will be in the August 11-20 timeframe unless something very unexpected occurs. August 21-30 is still possible, considering the MJO will be in a more favorable position for the Atlantic by then.

Boy, is that a fact. I'm reading some of the earlier predictions in this thread and some (AND especially mine) are kind of funny given the pace that we've been moving through the name list thus far. I do think that those choosing the Aug 21-30 period might have it pegged correctly. Given the dearth of season activity so far, it would be hard to believe that we'd have to get into September before seeing our first Major Hurricane for the year. Would be interesting to see this occur though. If so, I'd be just as curious to see if the season might have a similar loooooong ramp down before finally ending. That might imply a relatively busy November (compared to most years).

[captainbarbossa19]

August 23 (Isaias)

I think a major is going to form very soon. This date may be very close. Since the next letter is Laura, that could be it's name.

[St0rmTh0r]

With the looming outbreak of storms within the next 2 weeks highly likely it happens very soon

[TheStormExpert]

I wonder who that one person who voted no majors in 2020 is?

Wasn’t me as I voted August 21st-31st but I have to wonder if that could be in jeopardy.

[aspen]

I wonder who that one person who voted no majors in 2020 is?

Wasn’t me as I voted August 21st-31st but I have to wonder if that could be in jeopardy.

If 98L doesn’t become a major, perhaps the wave behind it could. Models are starting to like it, even the GFS.

[TheStormExpert]

I wonder who that one person who voted no majors in 2020 is?

Wasn’t me as I voted August 21st-31st but I have to wonder if that could be in jeopardy.

If 98L doesn’t become a major, perhaps the wave behind it could. Models are starting to like it, even the GFS.

At this point it wouldn’t surprise me if we didn’t see our first major until Alpha!(Joking)

[cycloneye]

The majority was right with 32%.

[TheHurricaneGod]

I predict there will be our first major hurricane today at 8:00 AM

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

August 23 (Isaias)

I think a major is going to form very soon. This date may be very close. Since the next letter is Laura, that could be it's name.

This guy won the prediction 11 days before it happened

[captainbarbossa19]

August 23 (Isaias)

I think a major is going to form very soon. This date may be very close. Since the next letter is Laura, that could be it's name.

This guy won the prediction 11 days before it happened

What was strange was that Laura came way too close to me. I actually decided to evacuate only to discover that I had a 30 mph gust when I came home. I was glad I didn't have hurricane force winds, but I feel really sad for all the people who lost so much.