ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

Wasn’t the scatterometer pass taken around ~06:00 UTC (~02:00 a.m. EDT)? The timing relative to convective organisation is important for determining the intensity of the system. Since the winds over and near Bermuda were sited outside the strong convection, wouldn’t the station/buoy data alone support an upgrade to 35-knot TS Edouard? What does the consensus of various satellite estimates indicate? This is a very borderline case and arguably merits an upgrade to TS status. Of course, the system may have only attained TS intensity for a few hours at most.

[Ubuntwo]

Wasn’t the scatterometer pass taken around ~06:00 UTC (~02:00 a.m. EDT)? The timing relative to convective organisation is important for determining the intensity of the system. Since the winds over and near Bermuda were sited outside the strong convection, wouldn’t the station/buoy data alone support an upgrade to 35-knot TS Edouard? What does the consensus of various satellite estimates indicate? This is a very borderline case and arguably merits an upgrade to TS status. Of course, the system may have only attained TS intensity for a few hours at most.

Satcon is at 40kt.

Considering 32kt was recorded north of Bermuda, distant from the core and outside of the CDO, it's very likely that 35kt winds exist somewhere in the system.

[Shell Mound]

Wasn’t the scatterometer pass taken around ~06:00 UTC (~02:00 a.m. EDT)? The timing relative to convective organisation is important for determining the intensity of the system. Since the winds over and near Bermuda were sited outside the strong convection, wouldn’t the station/buoy data alone support an upgrade to 35-knot TS Edouard? What does the consensus of various satellite estimates indicate? This is a very borderline case and arguably merits an upgrade to TS status. Of course, the system may have only attained TS intensity for a few hours at most.

Satcon is at 40kt.

Considering 32kt was recorded north of Bermuda, distant from the core and outside of the CDO, it's very likely that 35kt winds exist somewhere in the system.

If that’s the case, then can you think of a credible, scientific reason as to why this hasn’t been upgraded? I am trying to understand NHC’s position here.

Did someone overlook the data from the buoy? Will there be a special update? Will the NHC awkwardly upgrade this to a TS in its posthumous TCR?

[Ubuntwo]

Wasn’t the scatterometer pass taken around ~06:00 UTC (~02:00 a.m. EDT)? The timing relative to convective organisation is important for determining the intensity of the system. Since the winds over and near Bermuda were sited outside the strong convection, wouldn’t the station/buoy data alone support an upgrade to 35-knot TS Edouard? What does the consensus of various satellite estimates indicate? This is a very borderline case and arguably merits an upgrade to TS status. Of course, the system may have only attained TS intensity for a few hours at most.

Satcon is at 40kt.

Considering 32kt was recorded north of Bermuda, distant from the core and outside of the CDO, it's very likely that 35kt winds exist somewhere in the system.

If that’s the case, then can you think of a credible, scientific reason as to why this hasn’t been upgraded? I am trying to understand NHC’s position here.

The SATCON classification is currently only derived from two data points, so maybe not entirely reliable. And it's also possible that the convection collapses in a few hours and winds go down, they usually like to wait for consistency when it comes to naming storms (unless an ASCAT pass comes through).

[Ubuntwo]

[plasticup]

34 knot winds (2-min average) at Pearl Island. This is a tropical storm, no doubt in my mind. I am a little miffed that they never issued a Tropical Storm Warning.

[northjaxpro]

34 knot winds (2-min average) at Pearl Island. This is a tropical storm, no doubt in my mind. I am a little miffed that they never issued a Tropical Storm Warning.

Yes indeed. I concur!

[Shell Mound]

34 knot winds (2-min average) at Pearl Island. This is a tropical storm, no doubt in my mind. I am a little miffed that they never issued a Tropical Storm Warning.

What is the elevation of the anemometer? If it is 10 m, that is, standard elevation, will the NHC eventually upgrade this to a TS—perhaps posthumously?

Also, did you send in the observations to the NHC?

[aspen]

No upgrade for the 12z best track estimate.

[wxman57]

Looks like a frontal low on satellite imagery.

[toad strangler]

Looks like a frontal low on satellite imagery.

The 5 AM cone shows this as a TS heading into Monday but I agree, sat presentation is fugly. All convection is primarily off to the E and S of where the NHC has the "center"

[wxman57]

Not sure it still has a circulation.

[USTropics]

TD Five's circulation is evident on satellite presentation, with the mid-upper level convection displaced well to the east. The end is definitely near though, as the circulation has become elongated NE to SW, a typical evolution before opening back up into a trough axis. It has about 24-36 hours before it merges with the passing shortwave trough to it's NE and absorbed in the upper latitudes. We may see one more pulse later this evening that gives it a chance to tighten back up, but IMO best chance of getting named was earlier this morning as it approached Bermuda.

[MarioProtVI]

Circulation is elongating - no chance of this getting named. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it open up as soon as 5pm.

[storminabox]

Yeah the first five storms this year formed in the Subtropics. Not to mention all of the first five storms in 2005 affected land, with three being hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. Not much comparison.

Last time I checked the Bay of Campeche wasn’t located in the subtropics.

Things have clearly changed

[storminabox]

Circulation is elongating - no chance of this getting named. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it open up as soon as 5pm.

Good! I don't want anymore names to get wasted on short-lived sloppy cyclones.

[Dean_175]

What happens if this gets upgraded in post season analysis? Would we have “tropical storm 5” just like in retro times?

[zhukm29]

What happens if this gets upgraded in post season analysis? Would we have “tropical storm 5” just like in retro times?

Yeah, if this gets upgraded in post-season analysis, then it'll likely be known as "Tropical Storm Five". I'd say there was a fairly decent chance it was a tropical storm last night, especially with the better organization and measurements that were coming in from Bermuda. However, the NHC does tend to be conservative without clear-cut data. ASCAT has been whiffing on this system for a while, and we've been stuck with old ASCAT data from yesterday.

2020's chance to break the record for earliest 5th (and potentially 6th) named storm may have been dismantled by ASCAT failing to show up when we need it We'll see how things evolve though.

[Ubuntwo]

This thing continues to fire deep convection in the NE quad. The LLC has regained definition, with the low level cloud deck filling in. This might be its last hoorah towards getting named.

[BadLarry95]

This thing continues to fire deep convection in the NE quad. The LLC has regained definition, with the low level cloud deck filling in. This might be its last hoorah towards getting named.

It all comes down to 11pm. It’s at DMIN and looks good, so it’s really up in the air on what the NHC wants to do with it. It’s a junk storm that’s only a number booster, but a TS is a TS. We need an ASCAT to pass it