ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

PTrackerLA · #21 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:34 pm

If convection remains shallow as it is now i doubt it gets upgraded. Maybe if it had 48 hours over water but interesting system regardless. Finally got some decent rain in Lafayette today, nice lazy Sunday.

#22 Postby **NDG** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:44 pm

The vortex is clearly not at the surface, all kinds of outflows earlier and the buoy to NW of it is reporting SW winds. Is rotating around a broader circulation inland. Pressure have not fallen in the past 24 hrs.

#23 Postby **OuterBanker** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:47 pm

Hmmm, around 5am this morning I thought that most of the threat went poof. My how things have changed. It is exceedingly small and of course I am more interested of what will happen once it reaches the Atlantic (if it does that is). Unlike td5 which hit cooler waters the SE coast is very warm. Very unusual for us on the northern OBX to see the beach water temps in the 80’s this time of year, it has been warm for some time. Usually the shelf water is cooler because of Labrador current. Water temps west of the Gulf Stream are in the 80s all the way to Delaware. If this thing emerges from Ga or SC it will have time to crank up. No models are reflecting that because the track is just inland so I do not think it will happen. I guess it could happen though.

Aric Dunn · #24 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 3:42 pm

Looks as though the low over alabama is causing the mlc and llc to decouple

ScottNAtlanta · #25 Postby **ScottNAtlanta** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:07 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Looks as though the low over alabama is causing the mlc and llc to decouple

Yeah...the LLC is moving NE faster than the MLC

#26 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:14 pm

Some wind gusts showing up in the 12z ECM in the 40 to 50mph range offshore with this tonight but never really develops it.

Aric Dunn · #27 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:22 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Looks as though the low over alabama is causing the mlc and llc to decouple

Yeah...the LLC is moving NE faster than the MLC

Yeah. Confirms it is closed.

Convection may still make a come back but it will have to start over with the vertical stacking.

#28 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:47 pm

Definitely a small closed Low at least at 925mb.....Doesn't help it that it has run away from the MLC in trying to develop tonight.

#29 Postby **OuterBanker** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:53 pm

Yes, decoupled. That's got to be the smallest well defined llc I've ever seen. It's so cute.

Ubuntwo · #30 Postby **Ubuntwo** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:56 pm

Adorable

#31 Postby **NDG** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:58 pm

These are the type of weak little LLCs that when an recon plane flies through it barely shows a wind shift within the larger circulation over southern MS.

aspen · #32 Postby **aspen** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:00 pm

That decoupled really quickly...but that’s a pretty well-defined circulation there.

Ubuntwo · #33 Postby **Ubuntwo** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:01 pm

NDG wrote:These are the type of weak little LLCs that when an recon plane flies through it barely shows a wind shift within the larger circulation over southern MS.

https://i.imgur.com/bE12hjt.gif

The LLC is likely too weak to generate winds overpowering the broader circulation. Very much doubt there's any easterlies in there. Still cool.

Nimbus · #34 Postby **Nimbus** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:03 pm

And poof! little dry naked swirl lost her convection.
We really didn't need the rain anyways.

#35 Postby **NDG** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:10 pm

Nimbus wrote:And poof! little dry naked swirl lost her convection.
We really didn't need the rain anyways.

All the outflow boundaries earlier today was a good sign that it was going to decoupled.

Aric Dunn · #36 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:12 pm

The flow between the low over GA and alabama tugged this apart.

these types of systems are those that can deepen quickly. shear was low and had a good shot.

but different levels being pulled in different directions.

Ubuntwo · #37 Postby **Ubuntwo** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:15 pm

The future of this thing beyond the Gulf hinges on how far east it gets once it reaches the Atlantic. Modeling right now is split on that: some including the ICON, Navgem, and UKMET have it pretty far offshore, leading to pretty quick TCG. The Euro hardly gets it offshore, leading to slow and weak development. The CMC and GFS have it hugging the coast or just onshore, leading to a sloppy system that never gets going.

#38 Postby **psyclone** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:27 pm

Well that de-escalated rather quickly. It was cool though..

Aric Dunn · #39 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:31 pm

bouy near the center is down to 1010 mb. wont pass directly over it. but background pressures are 1012.

center is probably 1009.

some convection trying to come back.

#40 Postby **toad strangler** » Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:bouy near the center is down to 1010 mb. wont pass directly over it. but background pressures are 1012.

center is probably 1009.

some convection trying to come back.

1010 is pretty much HIgh Pressure to me

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