EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#21 Postby aspen » Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:27 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:X to doubt the shear values.

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972020 07/06/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 24 29 35 42 45 46 47 46 42 37 32 27
V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 24 29 35 42 45 46 47 46 42 37 32 27
V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 19 18 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 17 15 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 19 21 18 20 20 19 12 16 15 10 5 3 8 9 14 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 7 2 1 7 1 3 0 -3 -4 2 2 0 1 -1 -1
SHEAR DIR 49 44 34 20 16 25 21 349 329 321 324 348 302 254 220 210 220
SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.0 29.9 28.9 28.2 28.2 27.1 25.7 23.5 21.8 21.8 22.1 23.4
POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 148 152 156 156 165 155 147 147 136 122 100 82 82 85 98
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 4 6 6 7 6 6 2 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 73 76 81 82 82 82 81 80 78 78 78 78 71 70 64 60 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 13 1 -8 -11 -7 0 28 18 33 34 49 79 64 78 114
200 MB DIV 55 62 63 65 68 82 133 125 112 74 50 34 33 28 0 11 -22
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -8 -8 -6 0 -1 -6 -10 -9 3 -10 -3 -14
LAND (KM) 778 801 785 765 737 655 561 429 354 307 379 280 384 612 868 1230 1591
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.4 10.7 12.5 14.5 16.3 18.0 19.5 20.8 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.5 97.2 97.9 98.8 100.7 102.7 104.5 106.1 107.5 109.2 111.5 114.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 9 10 13 13 13 12 11 12 14 16 18 18 17 15
HEAT CONTENT 15 15 18 20 24 34 43 22 10 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 33. 32. 30. 28. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 4. 10. 17. 20. 21. 22. 21. 17. 12. 7. 2.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 96.0

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 07/06/20 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.02 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.49 3.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.5% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 5.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.9% 7.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.1% 6.5% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 2.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 07/06/20 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

Too high or too low?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:28 pm

:uarrow: Too high because this seems to move it too far north too quickly.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#23 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:11 pm

GFS now significantly weaker and is favoring 96E. Boris situation all over again.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:18 pm

Kingarabian wrote:GFS now significantly weaker and is favoring 96E. Boris situation all over again.


What a change. You said earlier that 97E and future 98E would be the final straws.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#25 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:GFS now significantly weaker and is favoring 96E. Boris situation all over again.


What a change. You said earlier that 97E and future 98E would be the final straws.

If none of them become respectable hurricanes then yeah.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#26 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:02 am

I haven't looked at the ECMWF ensembles but I suspect the GFS is up to its usual tricks. Next couple ECMWF runs are key here. Feels do or die time for the season as a whole and it's weird I'm saying this in early July but here I am.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#27 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:12 am

Yellow Evan wrote:I haven't looked at the ECMWF ensembles but I suspect the GFS is up to its usual tricks. Next couple ECMWF runs are key here. Feels do or die time for the season as a whole and it's weird I'm saying this in early July but here I am.

UKMET keeps 96E weak and strengthens this. Hoping Euro does the same.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#28 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:18 am

00z Euro develops this as well. So we're still game.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#29 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:11 am

Beginning to organize:
Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#30 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:31 am

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, have increased in coverage overnight. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development over the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
within the next two or three days while the system moves
west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#31 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:09 am

Up to hurricane once again from SHIP.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#32 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:20 am

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972020 07/06/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 44 52 59 69 73 80 84 82 77 70 65 57
V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 44 52 59 69 73 80 84 82 77 70 65 57
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 32 34 36 39 43 48 54 56 51 45 38 32
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 5 7 13 16 20 13 7 2 3 4 7 8 5 6 5 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 1 1 5 5 0 6 0 -2 -3 0 -1 0 -6 -2 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 64 71 44 38 41 48 21 8 259 360 76 37 22 360 303 289 269
SST (C) 29.3 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.0 29.0 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.3 26.3 24.4 23.2 22.6 22.8 22.4
POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 155 158 159 154 154 145 144 139 137 127 108 95 88 89 85
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 78 78 77 76 79 82 82 81 78 75 72 68 64 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 15 14 13 15 16 20 23 24 24 23 22 20
850 MB ENV VOR 5 3 11 8 5 -3 -19 -15 3 22 9 28 30 86 96 101 76
200 MB DIV 51 39 61 78 94 100 106 128 115 93 52 44 25 49 19 -5 -1
700-850 TADV -1 -4 -7 -8 -5 -5 -8 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -7 -1 0 1 -8
LAND (KM) 681 683 724 763 787 776 757 706 675 675 607 557 619 776 970 1107 1194
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.6 12.6 13.9 15.1 16.3 17.7 19.1 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 99.3 100.6 101.8 102.9 103.9 105.7 107.2 108.4 109.5 110.5 111.8 113.5 116.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 10 12 14 13 11 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 29 29 25 27 29 26 29 15 11 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. 33. 31. 30. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 10. 11. 16. 20. 19. 18. 15. 13. 10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 19. 27. 34. 44. 48. 55. 59. 57. 52. 45. 40. 32.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 99.3

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 07/06/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 7.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 3.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.50 4.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 1.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -5.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.8% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 17.8% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.5% 20.6% 7.3% 3.2% 0.4% 6.2% 14.9% 35.3%
Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 5.9%
Consensus: 0.9% 13.5% 8.6% 1.1% 0.1% 7.6% 11.0% 13.8%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 07/06/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:27 am

Image

6z GFS has this back on.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:17 am

06/1200 UTC 9.1N 99.1W T1.0/1.0 97E -- East Pacific
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2020 EPAC Season

#35 Postby aspen » Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:44 am

12z GFS develops 97E in only 30 hours, around tomorrow afternoon.
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Re: 2020 EPAC Season

#36 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:47 am

aspen wrote:12z GFS develops 97E in only 30 hours, around tomorrow afternoon.


To let you know that moved your post from the EPAC thread to the 97E one.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#37 Postby aspen » Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:03 am

With the influence of 96E out of the way, the 12z GFS run is very aggressive with 97E and has it peak at 969 mbar in 108 hours. An earlier development is also helping with this more aggressive run.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#38 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:38 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#39 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:45 pm

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico,
have become better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so
while the system moves west-northwestward, well south of the coast
of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#40 Postby aspen » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:53 pm

Wow, up to 80/90. At this rate, there’s a decent chance it could develop by the end of the day.
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