2020 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF bombs the one behind 97E.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone know from which wave the future system will spawn? Will it be from this one?

[Kingarabian]

Does anyone know from which wave the future system will spawn? Will it be from this one?

[url]https://i.imgur.com/53x2nFP.gif[url]

Likely the one sitting @ 63W.

[Kingarabian]

I think part of the reason why the EPAC has been acting atypical is due to the large nature of these disturbances. Large disturbances and a not so favorable base state means systems in otherwise favorable conditions will run out of time. 97E and future 98E will be the final straws for me.

[cycloneye]

A new one but is not the biggie modeled.

3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located more than 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS merges this with 96E and develops it.

[cycloneye]

NHC adds the biggie.

3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located more than 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

4. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for subsequent gradual development this
weekend while the system moves westward well south of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[aspen]

NHC adds the biggie.

3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located more than 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

4. Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for subsequent gradual development this
weekend while the system moves westward well south of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Good timing too. The Euro continues to bring development closer, and the 12z run starts to develop this in only 96 hours.

[cycloneye]

After the anemic start, it looks like the basin may have a couple of big ACE producers shortly and will be fun to track them.

[Kingarabian]

After the anemic start, it looks like the basin may have a couple of big ACE producers shortly and will be fun to track them.

As you say this, the 12z GFS now takes a while to develop this and does not make it as strong compared to its previous runs. 06z GFS-Parallel does not develop this. CMC barely develops it and the UKMET still does not have a disturbance @ hour 144. Only model that remains bullish is the Euro.

[Yellow Evan]

After the anemic start, it looks like the basin may have a couple of big ACE producers shortly and will be fun to track them.

As you say this, the 12z GFS now takes a while to develop this and does not make it as strong compared to its previous runs. 06z GFS-Parallel does not develop this. CMC barely develops it and the UKMET still does not have a disturbance @ hour 144. Only model that remains bullish is the Euro.

Honestly the rapid development right off Central America as shown by the ECMWF seems unrealistic, though at this point that's the region with the most favorable base state. 97E is the safe bet to become strong, with the trailing system having higher bust risk.

[Kingarabian]

After the anemic start, it looks like the basin may have a couple of big ACE producers shortly and will be fun to track them.

As you say this, the 12z GFS now takes a while to develop this and does not make it as strong compared to its previous runs. 06z GFS-Parallel does not develop this. CMC barely develops it and the UKMET still does not have a disturbance @ hour 144. Only model that remains bullish is the Euro.

Honestly the rapid development right off Central America as shown by the ECMWF seems unrealistic, though at this point that's the region with the most favorable base state. 97E is the safe bet to become strong, with the trailing system having higher bust risk.

The Euro is doing a pretty good job with 97E compared to the GFS. But yeah I think initial development will likely occur in the central EPAC vs just off of CA.

[cycloneye]

And just like that we have Five-E.

[cycloneye]

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located more than 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development of this system is still possible over the next several
days while it moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for subsequent gradual development this weekend
while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

[storminabox]

After the anemic start, it looks like the basin may have a couple of big ACE producers shortly and will be fun to track them.

As you say this, the 12z GFS now takes a while to develop this and does not make it as strong compared to its previous runs. 06z GFS-Parallel does not develop this. CMC barely develops it and the UKMET still does not have a disturbance @ hour 144. Only model that remains bullish is the Euro.

Honestly the rapid development right off Central America as shown by the ECMWF seems unrealistic, though at this point that's the region with the most favorable base state. 97E is the safe bet to become strong, with the trailing system having higher bust risk.

As long as we get one biggie, I'll be happy!

[Yellow Evan]

619
ABPZ20 KNHC 070520
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a little more than
1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some
slow development of this system is possible over the next few days
while it moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for subsequent gradual development this weekend
while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina are issued under
WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Kingarabian]

Euro has now backed off that big system. Much weaker on the 12z. I feel like I've repeated this phrase or some sort of variant quite a bit... and it's only July.

[aspen]

If Cristina fails to intensify into a hurricane or take advantage of the supposedly favorable conditions it will be in for the next 2-3 days, then this would be the ultimate death blow to the EPac season, and be yet another signal that the Atlantic will have the majority of the TC activity in the Western Hemisphere.

[cycloneye]

If Cristina fails to intensify into a hurricane or take advantage of the supposedly favorable conditions it will be in for the next 2-3 days, then this would be the ultimate death blow to the EPac season, and be yet another signal that the Atlantic will have the majority of the TC activity in the Western Hemisphere.

Agree 100% on this.