ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

What an impressive little swirl. If only it had another day or so over the Gulf we would be obliterating the sixth named storm record by half a month

[Ubuntwo]

Banding's improved and the core has held together over land. Moving NE by N.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

98L is 4mb below environmental average while on land, structure improving somewhat. Was 3mb lower at "landfall".

Very interesting to watch what essentially is a mesoscale feature make its way across land with good radar coverage.

[Ubuntwo]

[cycloneye]

A small low pressure system has moved inland over the Florida
panhandle. The small low is forecast to evolve into a larger low
pressure system and move northeastward, near the coast of the
Carolinas. Since the low is currently over land, no development
is expected today or tomorrow. However, some development will be
possible if the system moves back over water on Wednesday or
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Do_For_Love]

Huh. So there is a decent chance for 98L to make it to the Atlantic and strengthen there?

[northjaxpro]

Yes. The 98L vort is already traversing over extreme Southwest Georgia currently and moving northeast. It will reach the coast , likely NC coast, in the next 36 hours or sooner depending on its forward speed. It defnitely could spin up quickly off shore the N.C.coast once the vorticity arrives there.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1280104534052921344

[wxman57]

I'd give this about a 70-80% of becoming a TD offshore SC or NC Wed or Thu and then TS Fay east of MD/DE on Friday before it moves inland into southern New England on Saturday. I think that the only thing to stop the NHC from naming it will be if it remains well inland. Another weak, short-lived TS. One major reason for development Friday is that I've scheduled a vacation day. The tropics always observe holidays (Edouard forming over 4th of July weekend) and my planned vacation days.

[plasticup]

I'd give this about a 70-80% of becoming a TD offshore SC or NC Wed or Thu and then TS Fay east of MD/DE on Friday before it moves inland into southern New England on Saturday. I think that the only thing to stop the NHC from naming it will be if it remains well inland. Another weak, short-lived TS. One major reason for development Friday is that I've scheduled a vacation day. The tropics always observe holidays (Edouard forming over 4th of July weekend) and my planned vacation days.

Can't argue with that!

[aspen]

What an impressive little swirl. If only it had another day or so over the Gulf we would be obliterating the sixth named storm record by half a month

There’s still a decent chance 98L will blow that record once it gets back over water mid-week. Another weak TS is looking increasingly likely.

[FireRat]

holding well over land huh, could this be Fay 2.0?
remember how well the '08 Fay did over FL, maybe this invest develops as soon as it gets to the coast again and ramps up off NC. moderate to strong TS most likely IMO.

[Steve]

We are finally getting our first rains from likely future Fay as the moisture feed from deep, tropical North and Central Texas moves overhead. Yeah, not something you’ll read too often there.

https://www.weather.gov/lix/

[Aric Dunn]

One key thing to watch for is convection to start building offshore GA and SC/NC.

if this happens then the center will likely get pulled offshore sooner or even reform.

[bohai]

Seems to be lifting a little more NNE vs NE. Struggling to how the swirl gets back offshore unless another vort forms further eastward.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1280145338678927360

[Steve]

Seems to be lifting a little more NNE vs NE. Struggling to how the swirl gets back offshore unless another vort forms further eastward.

It's small and moving pretty deliberately so far. My best guess is that it will exit the coast in South Carolina. The 12z NAM messes around with a cut-off upper level low/trough to the west of the storm which essentially forces it north once in the Atlantic. The HRRR, which has done a pretty good job, only goes out to 18 hours on Tidbits (but is updated every hour). If it's got it's depiction right, and who knows, 98L will look better over Central Georgia than at any point so far. It's an 18 hour run, so this is valid for 1am tonight/tomorrow morning. What it depicts is a solid looking system getting better organized over land as it climbs in latitude.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0613&fh=18

Edit to say that the morning visible loop does indicate better structural organization for the low.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Seems to be lifting a little more NNE vs NE. Struggling to how the swirl gets back offshore unless another vort forms further eastward.

It's small and moving pretty deliberately so far. My best guess is that it will exit the coast in South Carolina. The 12z NAM messes around with a cut-off upper level low/trough to the west of the storm which essentially forces it north once in the Atlantic. The HRRR, which has done a pretty good job, only goes out to 18 hours on Tidbits (but is updated every hour). If it's got it's depiction right, and who knows, 98L will look better over Central Georgia than at any point so far. It's an 18 hour run, so this is valid for 1am tonight/tomorrow morning. What it depicts is a solid looking system getting better organized over land as it climbs in latitude.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0613&fh=18

Edit to say that the morning visible loop does indicate better structural organization for the low.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

the 12z and 00z runs go out 36 hours.

[northjaxpro]

holding well over land huh, could this be Fay 2.0?
remember how well the '08 Fay did over FL, maybe this invest develops as soon as it gets to the coast again and ramps up off NC. moderate to strong TS most likely IMO.

⁰

Fay '08 should have been retired. A memorable, record breaking cyclone. I talked about this in the thread last week about almost.hurricanes. Refer to that... The cyclone should have been among the very named TS to have been retired back then. This continues to bother me to this day!

[aspen]

I’m really surprised this thing still has a clear circulation on visible satellite imagery, despite being well over land. This could help it get together quickly once it exits the coast; however, I doubt it’ll hold up that long.