EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

[aspen]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/662369814085632020/729759166469767289/goes16_vis_97E_202007061745_lat10.png?format=png&width=640&height=463

It’s pulling itself together really quickly. I’m betting we will had TD5-E for the 00z update tonight.

[AnnularCane]

What a cute little thing! Sounds like this one may actually have a future?

[Yellow Evan]

This has the look of a future strong hurricane and this is at the right lattitude where it should easily have a chance if the upper environment goes its way (which is looking likely).

[cycloneye]

12z EC steady as past runs with 97E.

[Yellow Evan]

06/1730 UTC 10.3N 99.3W T1.0/1.0 97E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972020 07/06/20 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 42 48 57 69 77 82 87 91 93 86 83 76 68 61 54
V (KT) LAND 30 36 42 48 57 69 77 82 87 91 93 86 83 76 68 61 54
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 43 51 59 68 77 86 87 81 70 62 54 47 41
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 15 13 12 6 2 2 4 9 12 9 6 6 8 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 6 8 3 3 2 -2 -4 -3 0 -2 -5 -4 -1 0 1
SHEAR DIR 56 31 29 47 57 36 13 352 142 80 37 31 9 17 303 279 271
SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.4 29.6 28.9 28.2 28.0 27.6 26.4 24.7 24.3 24.1 23.8 23.5 23.0
POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 155 160 161 154 146 144 140 129 111 107 103 98 95 92
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 1 1 1 0
700-500 MB RH 78 81 82 81 78 77 78 80 80 80 79 77 73 69 66 61 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 15 15 15 16 19 23 27 26 28 29 27 25 22
850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 3 15 14 -10 5 8 38 35 52 64 107 135 131 105 60
200 MB DIV 64 90 97 98 95 105 120 114 104 100 42 43 40 35 9 -1 0
700-850 TADV -4 -5 -7 -5 -1 -6 -2 -3 -1 -2 -4 -4 -4 -2 4 0 1
LAND (KM) 658 659 668 677 675 628 584 564 597 588 565 685 878 1091 1234 1263 1215
LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.8 14.2 15.4 16.7 17.8 19.0 19.8 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 99.2 100.0 101.0 102.1 103.2 105.1 106.8 108.3 109.9 111.5 113.5 116.2 119.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 10 13 13 13 9 5 5 10
HEAT CONTENT 32 34 37 37 47 38 21 11 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 58.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 29. 28. 27. 26. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 24. 21. 22. 20. 17. 14. 10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 15. 9. 3. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 27. 39. 47. 52. 57. 61. 63. 56. 53. 46. 38. 31. 24.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 99.2

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 07/06/20 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 8.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 4.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.63 6.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 5.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.33 1.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 13.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -6.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 16.8% 40.4% 28.5% 19.5% 0.0% 25.9% 40.6% 52.1%
Logistic: 29.8% 68.4% 44.8% 33.1% 6.7% 56.0% 52.3% 57.5%
Bayesian: 14.6% 60.1% 43.0% 31.7% 0.8% 32.5% 41.8% 30.6%
Consensus: 20.4% 56.3% 38.8% 28.1% 2.5% 38.2% 44.9% 46.7%
DTOPS: 2.0% 22.0% 12.0% 6.0% 2.0% 18.0% 26.0% 15.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 07/06/20 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Looks like a TD.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah it likely is a borderline TS.

This is a very welcome sign. Hopefully it becomes a hurricane before it dies out. SHIPS shows pretty low shear value. The issue will be SSTs, depending on the track it takes.

[aspen]

:uarrow: Yeah it likely is a borderline TS.

This is a very welcome sign. Hopefully it becomes a hurricane before it dies out. SHIPS shows pretty low shear value. The issue will be SSTs, depending on the track it takes.

Looks like it’ll be traveling over some of the higher areas of SSTs and MPIs in the basin for the next couple of days. Since it appears to be on its way to be a classifiable cyclone within the next 12 hours, it’ll have more time to take advantage of these warm waters, and I can’t exclude the possibility of this becoming a major hurricane down the line if given the chance.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Yeah it likely is a borderline TS.

This is a very welcome sign. Hopefully it becomes a hurricane before it dies out. SHIPS shows pretty low shear value. The issue will be SSTs, depending on the track it takes.

Looks like it’ll be traveling over some of the higher areas of SSTs and MPIs in the basin for the next couple of days. Since it appears to be on its way to be a classifiable cyclone within the next 12 hours, it’ll have more time to take advantage of these warm waters, and I can’t exclude the possibility of this becoming a major hurricane down the line if given the chance.

Excluding 2019, systems that formed in positions like this usually got to MH status or very close to it. So I would not be surprised at all if it did.

[aspen]

This is absolutely a TC now. I’m expecting TD5E or TS Cristina at the 00z update.

[Kingarabian]

This is absolutely a TC now. I’m expecting TD5E or TS Cristina at the 00z update.

Very impressive spiraling bands in nearly all quadrants:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020

Satellite imagery shows that deep convection associated with the
low pressure area south of Mexico has become significantly better
organized since this morning. ASCAT data from earlier this
afternoon suggested that the circulation was still somewhat
elongated, but since that time low cloud motions indicate that
the circulation has become better defined. The scatterometer data
also revealed believable wind vectors of at least 30 kt, with
higher rain-inflated vectors within the deep convection. Based on
these data, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical
depression at this time.

The depression is located within a favorable environment consisting
of low vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and a
moist atmosphere. As a result, steady strengthening is anticipated
over the next several days, and the NHC forecast calls for the
cyclone to become a hurricane in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity
forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids IVCN
and HCCA, but is not quite as bullish as the SHIPS guidance. Given
the anticipated low wind shear conditions over the next few days, a
period of rapid strengthening is possible, and this intensity
forecast could be somewhat conservative. The cyclone is expected to
move over cooler waters in about 96 hours, which should cause
weakening by the end of the period.

Since the depression is still in its formative stage, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/11 kt. The depression is being
steered west-northwestward to the south of a large mid-level ridge
located over the south-central United States. A general
west-northwestward heading about around the same forward speed is
expected over the next several days. The dynamical model guidance
is in fairly good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track
forecast lies near the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 10.5N 99.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 11.2N 101.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 12.1N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 13.0N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 15.7N 110.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 17.2N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 18.8N 118.7W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[aspen]

This is absolutely a TC now. I’m expecting TD5E or TS Cristina at the 00z update.

I was right...now TD-5E, and forecast to peak as a Cat 2. Here comes the ACE we’ve all been waiting for!

[Kingarabian]

Alrighties let's see if it can become a hurricane now.

[Sciencerocks]

Already looks to be around 45 knots. IMO. Probably hurricane within the next 36 hours.

[aspen]

Already looks to be around 45 knots. IMO. Probably hurricane within the next 36 hours.

I agree that this will become a hurricane sooner than anticipated. It’s within quite a favorable environment, and it’s already 24-36 hours ahead of when the models expected it to form. That’s 24-36 hours of extra time over 28-29 C SSTs in a moist, low-shear environment.

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a max intensity of 110-115 kt. Faster development, good outflow, and an already favorable environment suggest it has a good chance or greatly exceeding expectations.

[cycloneye]

Based on the earlier than expected development I am going with a peak of 130 kts. as I dont see anything to stop it from bigtime RI.

[Yellow Evan]

This has around four days to deepen so I like its chances of becoming a robust hurricane but while the depression looks great, Dvorak numbers aren’t high yet so don’t expect too much short term intensification.