EPAC: CRISTINA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Latest AMSR2 pass:

[aspen]

Latest AMSR2 pass:
https://i.imgur.com/a60uL2o.jpg

Doesn’t look too bad, but then again, this is a mere hours-old system. I expect the beginning of an eyewall to appear in 12-24 hours.

[Kingarabian]

Latest AMSR2 pass:
[url]https://i.imgur.com/a60uL2o.jpg[url]

Doesn’t look too bad, but then again, this is a mere hours-old system. I expect the beginning of an eyewall to appear in 12-24 hours.

Core looks like its developing on this SSMI pass:

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 062358
TCSENP

A. 05E (NONAME)

B. 06/2330Z

C. 10.8N

D. 100.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING FOR A DT=2.0. MET=1.5. PT=2.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[Chris90]

I'm going to place my bet between aspen's and cycloneye's, and guess 125kts peak. This has the looks of one of those EPAC storms that will get to Cat 4, and conditions look good for it. Good chance this starts a period of rapid intensification within the next 36-48 hours I'd say.

[Kingarabian]

It's now Cristina.

[cycloneye]

Yes, Cristina. Some models up to cat 3.

[cycloneye]

Ramping up fast.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIVE EP052020 07/07/20 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 42 49 57 65 78 87 92 97 97 94 87 81 74 67 59 49
V (KT) LAND 35 42 49 57 65 78 87 92 97 97 94 87 81 74 67 59 49
V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 56 68 80 92 99 100 95 83 72 63 54 46 38
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 11 12 13 12 7 3 5 3 11 14 10 3 3 1 6 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 5 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 42 40 41 53 46 29 14 18 25 47 52 50 49 359 339 276 288
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.6 28.7 28.5 28.4 27.8 27.3 26.6 25.4 24.2 23.4 23.0 22.4 22.0
POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 160 162 161 152 149 148 142 137 130 118 106 96 93 89 85
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 80 81 80 77 78 78 78 80 81 81 79 79 73 72 66 57 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 17 17 19 20 24 27 27 27 25 25 23 21 17
850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 15 10 1 2 9 27 40 62 58 77 100 104 88 91 81
200 MB DIV 97 95 102 102 118 123 132 110 101 47 46 27 36 5 -10 -18 -8
700-850 TADV -10 -12 -7 -4 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 -7 -5 -3 1 0 4 0 -4
LAND (KM) 639 640 640 649 643 661 663 737 775 783 828 913 1070 1163 1232 1439 1755
LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.7 14.8 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.6 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 100.8 102.0 103.1 104.2 105.2 107.3 109.0 110.6 112.4 114.1 115.8 118.1 120.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 11 9 9 9 9 10 12 13 10 11 18 20
HEAT CONTENT 40 42 50 52 37 22 14 12 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. 22. 20. 18.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 16. 19. 20. 18. 14. 13. 10. 7. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 10. 3. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 22. 30. 43. 52. 57. 62. 62. 59. 52. 46. 39. 32. 24. 14.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.9 100.8

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052020 FIVE 07/07/20 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 9.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 5.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.70 7.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 2.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 5.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.40 2.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -7.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 19.6% 53.4% 35.2% 23.2% 17.7% 39.4% 57.5% 50.2%
Logistic: 13.7% 51.6% 31.3% 23.5% 4.9% 51.8% 64.8% 51.5%
Bayesian: 10.2% 48.4% 44.4% 25.7% 1.8% 30.4% 26.4% 19.7%
Consensus: 14.5% 51.1% 37.0% 24.1% 8.1% 40.5% 49.6% 40.5%
DTOPS: 3.0% 37.0% 23.0% 13.0% 6.0% 33.0% 56.0% 39.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 FIVE 07/07/20 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[1900hurricane]

00Z ICON takes it up to almost C3 by tau 84. 18Z HWRF is 93 kt at the same point (although interpolated HWFI is a little lower). Couple with the SHIP/LGEM output above, and I'd probably bring 05E up to 95 kt by the 72-84 tau point. I think it has a legitimate shot at major intensity.

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 0, 109N, 1008W, 35, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0, , 0, SRS, 295, 14, , , 12, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 3, 112N, 1013W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 45, 0, , 0, SRS, 300, 13, , , 12, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 12, 119N, 1030W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 30, 40, 0, 0, 0, 55, 0, , 0, SRS, 295, 12,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 24, 129N, 1053W, 55, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 50, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, SRS, 295, 12,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 24, 129N, 1053W, 55, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, SRS, 295, 12,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 1073W, 70, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 60, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, SRS, 295, 11,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 1073W, 70, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, SRS, 295, 11,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 1073W, 70, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 15, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, SRS, 295, 11,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 48, 148N, 1090W, 80, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 70, 50, 70, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0, , 0, SRS, 300, 9,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 48, 148N, 1090W, 80, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0, , 0, SRS, 300, 9,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 48, 148N, 1090W, 80, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 0, 15, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0, , 0, SRS, 300, 9,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 60, 157N, 1107W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 80, 60, 80, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0, , 0, SRS, 300, 9,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 60, 157N, 1107W, 90, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0, , 0, SRS, 300, 9,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 60, 157N, 1107W, 90, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 0, 15, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0, , 0, SRS, 300, 9,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 72, 165N, 1123W, 95, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 80, 60, 80, 0, 0, 0, 115, 0, , 0, SRS, 300, 9,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 72, 165N, 1123W, 95, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 0, 0, 0, 115, 0, , 0, SRS, 300, 9,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 72, 165N, 1123W, 95, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 0, 15, 0, 0, 0, 115, 0, , 0, SRS, 300, 9,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 96, 181N, 1161W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0, , 0, SRS, 295, 10,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, OFCL, 120, 199N, 1216W, 70, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, SRS, 290, 14,

[South Texas Storms]

00Z ICON takes it up to almost C3 by tau 84. 18Z HWRF is 93 kt at the same point (although interpolated HWFI is a little lower). Couple with the SHIP/LGEM output above, and I'd probably bring 05E up to 95 kt by the 72-84 tau point. I think it has a legitimate shot at major intensity.

That's actually the 18z ICON run...the 0z starts running in a few minutes. But I agree that this system has a decent chance of becoming a major hurricane in a few days.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that convection has increased and
become better organized since the previous advisory, although
convection has waned somewhat during the past couple of hours due
to entrainment of dry mid-level air. A 2213Z SSMI overpass showed a
small but well-defined mid-level eye feature in the 85 GHz data and
the latest TAFB satellite classification was T2.0/30 kt. Based on
the improved banding features and the mid-level eye, the intensity
has been increased to a conservative 35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt, based on a blend of TAFB
and microwave satellite fixes. Cristina is expected to be steered
west-northwestward throughout the forecast period along the southern
periphery of a large deep-layer ridge that extends westward from the
south-central and southwestern United States. The latest NHC model
guidance has become more tightly packed around the previous forecast
track, so only minor tweaks were made in the form of a slightly
faster forward speed. The NHC track forecast lies close to the
simple consensus models, which are a little south of the
corrected-consensus model HCCA.

Cristina is expected to remain in quite favorable environmental and
oceanic conditions for the next 72 h or so. The small inner-core
eye-like feature and the expected low vertical shear and impressive
upper-level outflow conditions suggest that rapid intensification
(RI) could occur at some point occur during that time. However,
recent entrainment of dry mid-level air into the eastern
semicircle has eroded convection in that part of the circulation,
and the dry air may have even penetrated into and disrupted the
inner core itself. Given the aforementioned uncertainty in the
structure of the cyclone, RI is not being explicitly forecast at
this time, although the official intensity forecast is higher than
the previous advisory through 96 h. By 120 h, significant weakening
should be well underway when Cristina will be moving over 24-deg-C
sea-surface temperatures. The NHC official intensity forecast
follows the trend of the previous forecast, and there is a distinct
possibility that Cristina could undergo RI and also become a major
hurricane if the inner-core region has not been disrupted.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 11.2N 101.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 11.9N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 12.9N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 13.9N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 14.8N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 15.7N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 16.5N 112.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 18.1N 116.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 19.9N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[aspen]

I don’t think Cristina will have much trouble mixing out that mid-level dry air. RI will probably be delayed, but given how favorable the rest of it’s environment is for the next few days, it has plenty of time to get itself ready to explode.

[1900hurricane]

00Z ICON takes it up to almost C3 by tau 84. 18Z HWRF is 93 kt at the same point (although interpolated HWFI is a little lower). Couple with the SHIP/LGEM output above, and I'd probably bring 05E up to 95 kt by the 72-84 tau point. I think it has a legitimate shot at major intensity.

That's actually the 18z ICON run...the 0z starts running in a few minutes. But I agree that this system has a decent chance of becoming a major hurricane in a few days.

I actually meant the intensity consensus ICON NHC has in the a-decks, not the global model ICON, although I can understand the confusion.

EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, ICON, 0, 0N, 0W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, ICON, 12, 0N, 0W, 44, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, ICON, 24, 0N, 0W, 54, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, ICON, 36, 0N, 0W, 65, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, ICON, 48, 0N, 0W, 74, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, ICON, 60, 0N, 0W, 84, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, ICON, 72, 0N, 0W, 94, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, ICON, 84, 0N, 0W, 96, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, ICON, 96, 0N, 0W, 89, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, ICON, 108, 0N, 0W, 78, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, ICON, 120, 0N, 0W, 70, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 05, 2020070700, 03, ICON, 132, 0N, 0W, 62, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[storminabox]

I love how everyones so surprised that the EPAC may pull off a major hurricane. In any normal year, we (or at least I) would take a major hurricane for granted. Just really goes to show how low our expectations have been for this basin this year. It looks like Cristina will finally put on the show that we have been looking for out of this basin and will not be another failed modeled hurricane that never comes to fruition (looking at you, Boris).

[Yellow Evan]

Looks to be becoming more CDO dominant. Expected but given how banding dominant it was, its former structure was not sustainable for serious deepening.

[Astromanía]

Yes, this is the type of system we were waiting from the EPAC, a fast forming Cyclone that has a chance to be a classic cat 4 major hurricane. Hello Cristina! I think EPAC is tired of being ignored this year

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020

Deep convection is gradually expanding over the center of Cristina
and in curved bands over the western portion of the circulation.
An ASCAT-B overpass from around 0430 UTC showed maximum winds of
around 35 kt. Based on that data and Dvorak estimates of T2.5/35
kt from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt.

Cristina is expected to strengthen during the next few days due to
the favorable environmental conditions of low wind shear and warm
SSTs, and its developing compact inner core as observed in
satellite data. The only limiting factor is some dry air that has
entrained into the eastern portion of the circulation. However,
given the largely conducive conditions for strengthening, the NHC
intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance
during the next 3 days. Although it is not explicitly forecast,
rapid intensification could occur sometime during the next couple
of days. Cristina will likely be moving over SSTs below 26 C and
into a drier and more stable air mass late this week and this
weekend, and that should induce a weakening trend. This intensity
forecast is mostly an update of the previous one and in best
agreement with corrected consensus model HCCA.

Satellite fixes indicate that Cristina is moving west-northwestward
at about 11 kt. The track forecast reasoning is fairly
straightforward. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern
U.S. is expected to strengthen in place during the next several
days. This should keep Cristina on a west-northwestward path well
offshore of Mexico through the remainder of the week and into this
weekend. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track
forecast, and this prediction lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 11.5N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 12.2N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 13.3N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 14.3N 108.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 15.3N 109.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 16.3N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 18.9N 117.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[aspen]

Convection has really diminished overnight. Looks like it’ll take significantly longer to begin any phase of RI.