ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

That has to be some of the strongest hot towers I have seen which fired off of FL.
Massive lightning.
Saw gravity waves in high-resolution IR imagery.

[aspen]

Another recon flight is about to enter Fay. It’s only been about 2 hours since the last flight, but I’m curious if the pressure is continuing to drop, or if those 50 kt readings are starting to translate to the surface (odds are they aren’t).

[TheStormExpert]

Fay is definitely taking on a more Subtropical look this morning as the deep convection is displaced to the north, east, and south of the main circulation.

[NDG]

I am sure the recon will find that TS force winds are away from the center of circulation.

[aspen]

Fay is definitely taking on a more Subtropical look this morning as the deep convection is displaced to the north, east, and south of the main circulation.

https://media.giphy.com/media/lOUu7mEVWjFCYqEcxb/source.gif

I was pretty sure Fay would start turning subtropical today. The displacement of its convection to the north and East was also mentioned in Levi’s newest video.

[NDG]

So far the recon is finding TS force winds at h925 but not at the surface on its southern quadrant, pressure down to 998mb.

[toad strangler]

Looks like a Nor Easter

[plasticup]

They say this is tropical?

[aspen]

They say this is tropical?

https://i.imgur.com/oNV5yTn.gif

Tropical enough, I guess. Recon is still finding a well-defined center; looks more like a lopsided TS.

[NDG]

On the NE quadrant now, plenty of TS force winds at 2,400 feet but not much at the surface.

115600 3825N 07346W 9250 00728 0055 +202 +182 146052 053 030 001 00
115630 3826N 07344W 9251 00728 0057 +200 +184 149053 054 031 001 00
115700 3827N 07343W 9248 00734 0061 +200 +185 148051 053 031 000 00
115730 3828N 07341W 9249 00736 0062 +202 +185 146052 053 031 001 00
115800 3829N 07340W 9245 00741 0064 +202 +186 145050 053 031 001 00
115830 3830N 07338W 9250 00736 0065 +205 +186 145052 053 031 001 03
115900 3831N 07337W 9250 00739 0066 +206 +186 147051 052 032 000 00
115930 3832N 07335W 9249 00740 0066 +208 +187 149051 053 033 001 03
120000 3833N 07334W 9248 00742 0069 +206 +188 149051 052 033 000 00
120030 3834N 07332W 9249 00742 0070 +205 +189 148050 052 031 001 03
120100 3836N 07330W 9252 00741 0072 +200 +189 146050 052 034 005 00
120130 3837N 07329W 9250 00742 0076 +193 +189 146051 054 036 009 00
120200 3838N 07327W 9240 00753 0079 +189 +186 147052 054 033 012 00
120230 3839N 07326W 9250 00745 0080 +190 +182 145051 052 032 007 00
120300 3840N 07324W 9249 00749 0082 +190 +178 144050 052 033 005 00
120330 3841N 07323W 9250 00749 0084 +190 +174 145050 050 033 005 00

[GCANE]

Huge drop in pressure

998.5 mb
37.550N 74.667W

[wxman57]

So far the recon is finding TS force winds at h925 but not at the surface on its southern quadrant, pressure down to 998mb.

Also note that the FL wind direction is "wrong". Blowing away from the center.

[aspen]

Could the higher amount of 50+ kt readings justify an upgrade to 50 kt? Or would it have to wait for stronger winds to show up at FL?

[GCANE]

Continued helicity in the convection is aligning the vorts and tranfering angular momentum to the surface.
Also, another factor is a secondary coriolis force due to the fact it is tracking due north at higher latitude.

CAPE along the shore has dropped accounting for the washing out of deep convection.
However, farther east, it is increasing and entraining into the core.
May get one more burst of convection later this afternoon.

[GCANE]

7C core at low-level, very impressive

Center Fix Coordinates: 37.59N 74.72W
Center Fix Location: 59 statute miles (94 km) to the SSE (161°) from Ocean City, MD, USA.
Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated

Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)

[GCANE]

Latest sounding from the mouth of the Bay showing no shear from the surface to 500mb.
35 knot jet at 225 mb.

[aspen]

First 55+ kt readings have been found in the northern quadrant of Fay.

[gfsperpendicular]

What would need to happen for this thing to refire convection over its center?

[tolakram]

Warmer water most likely.

SLIDER visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=7381.84375&y=3679.877685546875

[NDG]

Could the higher amount of 50+ kt readings justify an upgrade to 50 kt? Or would it have to wait for stronger winds to show up at FL?

So far recon's SFMR readings don't support 50 kt upgrade.