ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

First 55+ kt readings have been found in the northern quadrant of Fay.

Plenty of surface obs in the area indicate 15-25 kt winds. Fay is more of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm this morning. Winds aloft are not translating well to the surface. For that to change, we'd need to move Fay about 500 miles south and remove the shear.

[NDG]

What would need to happen for this thing to refire convection over its center?

It wouldn't at this point, dry air has taken over its CoC and is over cooler SSTs in the 70s so it has taken a more subtropical character.

[northjaxpro]

Yes indeed it has!

[Do_For_Love]

Gettin some steady rain and light winds here in northern DE for about 2 hours now. Coming down at a good rate. Nothing earth shattering but it's definitely wet out there.

[weathaguyry]

Winds now just starting to get gusty in Southern Nassau County on Long Island. Just starting to get some of the leading showers now. Our house is directly on the bay so we shall see how this unfolds over the coming hours.

[Do_For_Love]

There's some videos on twitter of flooding at the Delaware beaches. Here's one from Bethany: https://twitter.com/LoganGilesWx/status ... 54496?s=20

[FrontRunner]

Winds now just starting to get gusty in Southern Nassau County on Long Island. Just starting to get some of the leading showers now. Our house is directly on the bay so we shall see how this unfolds over the coming hours.

I'm a bit further east than you out in Suffolk (Patchogue) exactly two miles from the bay. No weather here yet. I'm just hoping for lots of rain -- we need it!

[drezee]

First 55+ kt readings have been found in the northern quadrant of Fay.

Plenty of surface obs in the area indicate 15-25 kt winds. Fay is more of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm this morning. Winds aloft are not translating well to the surface. For that to change, we'd need to move Fay about 500 miles south and remove the shear.

Shallow convection. Delaware Bay Winds at 10-20m above the surface are worthy... 37kts sustained @10M and 39kts at 20M...gusts to 48kts

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=brnd1

[GCANE]

Big turn to the NW.
Heading to Delaware Bay or making a loop-de-loop?

[wxman57]

Big turn to the NW.
Heading to Delaware Bay or making a loop-de-loop?

No turn. The little vortex marking the center is rotating counter-clockwise around a larger area of low pressure. Just a wobble. Weather should improve significantly 2-3 hours before the center approaches, as there are no strong winds or heavy squalls anywhere near the center. It does appear to be moving much faster now. I'm measuring about a 25 mph northward speed.

[storminabox]

I would’ve preferred if this system took a more easterly track so Eastern New England could’ve gotten some more beneficial rains.

[aspen]

Looks like those 50-60 kt FL winds were enough to justify an upgrade to 50 kt. Pressure is kept at 999 mbar.

[MGC]

Fay's structure hasn't changed much since yesterday, an eddy circulating around a larger cyclonic gyre. Looking very sub tropical too. At least the storm will bring to rain to the NE and quench the drought there.....MGC

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing any evidence of 50kt winds, or anything close to that, northwest of Fay's center across southern NJ. Currently, the center of Fay is 40nm SE of Cape May, NJ. NHC has 50 kt winds extending 50nm NW of Fay's center. Cape May has been reporting NE wind at 14 kts. Those stronger winds aloft that recon measured are not making it down to the surface.

KWWD 101514Z AUTO 07014G22KT 1 1/4SM -RA BR OVC005 24/23 A2965 RMK AO2 WSHFT 1454 CIG 004V009 P0003
KWWD 101456Z AUTO 03014G20KT 1 3/4SM -RA BR OVC005 23/23 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 02028/1401 SLP044 P0020 60186 T02330228 56030
KWWD 101452Z AUTO 01012G20KT 1 3/4SM RA BR OVC005 23/23 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 02028/1401 PRESFR P0018
KWWD 101443Z AUTO 02012G18KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR OVC005 23/23 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 02028/1401 CIG 004V008 P0013
KWWD 101356Z AUTO 03020G28KT 4SM -RA BR OVC007 23/22 A2971 RMK AO2 PK WND 02037/1327 SLP061 P0038 T02280217
KWWD 101345Z AUTO 04021G30KT 4SM -RA BR OVC007 23/22 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 02037/1327 P0036
KWWD 101338Z AUTO 04020G31KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC007 23/22 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 02037/1327 VIS 1 1/4V5 CIG 006V011 P0036
KWWD 101256Z AUTO 03020G31KT 1 1/4SM +RA BR OVC007 23/22 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 03033/1234 CIG 004V011 SLP074 P0128 T02280222
KWWD 101240Z AUTO 02022G33KT 1 1/2SM +RA BR BKN007 OVC011 23/22 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 03033/1234 VIS 1V2 1/2 CIG 004V008 P0107
KWWD 101228Z AUTO 02021G31KT 1SM +RA BR BKN007 BKN012 OVC017 23/22 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 02031/1220 CIG 005V009 PRESFR P0093
KWWD 101213Z AUTO 02015G18KT 1SM +RA BR FEW005 BKN010 OVC022 23/22 A2977 RMK AO2 PK WND 03028/1203 CIG 007V015 P0040
KWWD 101209Z AUTO 03013G28KT 1 1/2SM +RA BR BKN008 BKN013 OVC022 23/22 A2977 RMK AO2 PK WND 03028/1203 CIG 004V012 P0020
KWWD 101205Z AUTO 04020G28KT 2SM -RA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC020 23/22 A2977 RMK AO2 PK WND 03028/1203 P0006
KWWD 101156Z AUTO 03019G28KT 1 1/4SM +RA BR BKN006 BKN016 OVC020 23/22 A2977 RMK AO2 PK WND 05029/1126 CIG 004V012 SLP083 P0103

[Steve]

I would’ve preferred if this system took a more easterly track so Eastern New England could’ve gotten some more beneficial rains.

HRRR says you will get some feeder moisture. Whether it's at the surface or not remains to be seen.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71014&fh=4

[FrontRunner]

I'm not seeing any evidence of 50kt winds, or anything close to that, northwest of Fay's center across southern NJ. Currently, the center of Fay is 40nm SE of Cape May, NJ. NHC has 50 kt winds extending 50nm NW of Fay's center. Cape May has been reporting NE wind at 14 kts. Those stronger winds aloft that recon measured are not making it down to the surface.

Why do you suspect the NHC got it so wrong? Are there other aspects of their assessments and forecasts for Fay that we should also not trust?

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing any evidence of 50kt winds, or anything close to that, northwest of Fay's center across southern NJ. Currently, the center of Fay is 40nm SE of Cape May, NJ. NHC has 50 kt winds extending 50nm NW of Fay's center. Cape May has been reporting NE wind at 14 kts. Those stronger winds aloft that recon measured are not making it down to the surface.

Why do you suspect the NHC got it so wrong? Are there other aspects of their assessments and forecasts for Fay that we should also not trust?

It's not a question of being wrong. For a very brief period, there may have been some stronger winds northwest of the center. Tropical cyclones are not static. Their wind fields are constantly changing. The plane reported a spike of 65 kt winds are flight level. Normally, this would support a surface wind of 55 kts. However, Fay isn't a normal tropical cyclone. The squalls that may have been able to translate those stronger flight level winds down to the surface lasted for only a brief period. If there was even a chance of stronger wind at the surface, then the NHC had to go with 50 kts in their advisory. Better to be safe than sorry when alerting the public about an approaching storm. I know all of the NHC forecasters. They're all good meteorologists. Their primary mission is to protect public lives. Fortunately, any 50kt winds at the surface may have lasted only a few minutes over a small area.

[aspen]

Gusts are starting to pick up a bit in SW Connecticut. A little bit of rain is starting too, but the brunt of this won’t start until 7-9 pm.

[Steve]

I'm not sure if Fay will just brush by or move inland, but the main center as well as the vort within are right up along Delaware Bay/Cape May. All the weather is long past there, but there is some flooding going on between Dover and Philly.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[MarioProtVI]

Gusty winds and heavy rainfall currently pounding my area here in central NJ. Like many here from Tri-State this is my first experience of a TC since Sandy in ‘12 and looking like it will be the first to make landfall here since Irene in ‘11. The worst weather right now is causing rain to pour at a rate enough to semi-flood my backyard patio (it’s small and sinks a bit level to the grass) and causing our gutters here to leak a bit