2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Aric Dunn]

Keep watching east of florida.. convection building under mlc. With clear low level vorticity.

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone catch the 12z ECM run depicting a wave coming into the central Bahamas and crossing south Florida into the Gulf come the 20th time frame? It is subtle and in no way develops it and way out in time but things could change there.

[Kingarabian]

Anyone catch the 12z ECM run depicting a wave coming into the central Bahamas and crossing south Florida into the Gulf come the 20th time frame? It is subtle and in no way develops it and way out in time but things could change there.

Models have have been hinting on this scenario for couple of days now. Nothing serious shown on the models but will be watched closely.

[aspen]

Anyone catch the 12z ECM run depicting a wave coming into the central Bahamas and crossing south Florida into the Gulf come the 20th time frame? It is subtle and in no way develops it and way out in time but things could change there.

Models have have been hinting on this scenario for couple of days now. Nothing serious shown on the models but will be watched closely.

SSTs are so high in the Bahamas/S FL/W Gulf region that anything moving in there has to be watched. I’m not sure how much SAL is left there, though, so it could very easily succumb to dry air and fizzle out.

[Ubuntwo]

Anyone catch the 12z ECM run depicting a wave coming into the central Bahamas and crossing south Florida into the Gulf come the 20th time frame? It is subtle and in no way develops it and way out in time but things could change there.

Models have have been hinting on this scenario for couple of days now. Nothing serious shown on the models but will be watched closely.

SSTs are so high in the Bahamas/S FL/W Gulf region that anything moving in there has to be watched. I’m not sure how much SAL is left there, though, so it could very easily succumb to dry air and fizzle out.

PBC checking in. Very moist and rainy past few days - no SAL to speak of. Water temps 90F+ around the keys, super primed. All that’s missing is an incipient disturbance to take advantage of it.

[Aric Dunn]

So the wave north of PR is the wave that models 3 or 4 days ago were showing trying to develop around bahamas and in the florida straights/gulf. I remember the Euro Nd gfs showing tbis at one point with quite a few eps as well.


Then all of a sudden the models dropped it. Assuming from dry air.

Well given the convection pattern now. I dont think that is much of a problem.. needs to be watched very closely.


It is always interesting when a feature like this is present but no model even shows its existence..

[boca]

The wave north of PR looks healthy but don’t you think the wave will turn before getting to Florida due to the suppressed ridge sitting over Cuba bring southwest flow over the peninsula.

[Aric Dunn]

The wave north of PR looks healthy but don’t you think the wave will turn before getting to Florida due to the suppressed ridge sitting over Cuba bring southwest flow over the peninsula.

I would assume it would turn. I was just mentioning what the models were doing with it before.

[Hurricane Mike]

I know it's a really really big grain of salt, but the long-range CFS model seems to show a year where pretty much every single thing turns out to sea near Bermuda. Is this typical? I don't normally view it.

[USTropics]

I know it's a really really big grain of salt, but the long-range CFS model seems to show a year where pretty much every single thing turns out to sea near Bermuda. Is this typical? I don't normally view it.

I wouldn't get too caught up in the tracks of potential systems (see my post here on difficulties of forecasting tracks 10+ days out viewtopic.php?p=2811154#p2811154). Mainly I would use the long range CFS to find consistency in formation of storms. For instance, 11 of the past 12 CFS runs have show an AEW developing in the Caribbean/Bahamas. However, there are varying solutions for intensity and track (2 runs it interacts with Cuba and dies, 3 runs it makes it into the GOM, 2 runs it landfalls in the Carolinas, 4 runs it recurves, 1 run no development):


The main takeaway is there is increasing consistency with the CFS of a system developing the last week of July/first week of August that potentially could impact the Caribbean islands/CONUS. Track and intensity are way too far out to speculate on, and a wide range of possibilities remains (including no development). For now, we'll wait and see if the time frame continues to move up and in the coming days if the global models/ensembles begin to pick up on it.

[boca]

I agree with gatorcane that Florida probably will not see a storm coming in the the east since the Bermuda high been non existent this summer. Things could change come August with the steering flow with the Bermuda high stronger than it is now.

[Hammy]

GFS has been showing on the last few runs that the SW-NE orientation to the monsoon trough off of Africa is vanishing or flattening out near the end of the run which leads me to believe that the dry air setup is likely coming to an end by the end of the month.

[aspen]

12z GFS has a weak TC in the MDR forming at 204 hours. About time it’s started to show something.

[cycloneye]

At least it has something.

[AutoPenalti]

At least it has something.

https://i.imgur.com/QZq0E19.gif

Geez, that’s massive.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I remember the days when we had model storms everywhere. I guess they are getting better, dont you think?

[cycloneye]

Ummm 12z EC same as GFS. Sniffing, Sniffing.

[TheProfessor]

Ummm 12z EC same as GFS. Sniffing, Sniffing.

https://i.imgur.com/9Tbd2hI.png

The 12z Canadian Ensembles have a pretty strong signal with that wave and takes it in to the Windward/Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a fairly strong system. Definitely something to watch.

[toad strangler]

Here we go! Ding Ding Ding Ding

[gfsperpendicular]

I remember the days when we had model storms everywhere. I guess they are getting better, dont you think?

At the same time, there's nothing quite like a nice long-tracking major that stays ten days away...