ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheAustinMan]

A few of the peak wind gusts from Fay so far near the Delaware Bay. A bit gusty this morning and afternoon, but the principal threat remains the heavy rain and flooding ongoing across the area.

137 KB. Source: Data from the Weather and Hazards Data Viewer. Plot made using QGIS.

[GCANE]

It took that hard left and then seems to have stalled a bit.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

It took that hard left and then seems to have stalled a bit.

https://i.imgur.com/dooqMb4.png

Well, that line appears to be following the eddy inside the LLC that is now consolidating said circulation tighter around it, and, while Fay may have slowed down slightly, the general motion of the system is still NNE.

OT from your comment, but this storm has been absolutely gorgeous visually. I'm appreciating it before it begins to degrade over land later today.

[Do_For_Love]

Rain still coming down here, it's been varying between steady and heavy all day. The network news was calling for us to get about an inch or so this morning and I think we have exceeded that. The Philadelphia airport seems to be reporting over 2 inches since this morning, if i'm reading it right: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPHL.html

It has been dry around here recently so the rain is beneficial in a sense. Hopefully there isn't too much damage from the flooding that's occurring.

[TheStormExpert]

How is Fay still classifiable as purely Tropical in nature? If anything it could easily be Post-Tropical in my opinion on the 5pm advisory. Not to mention The Weather Channel is comparing it to notable Nor’easters!

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1281601997699821570



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1281597605747683329



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1281608549370433536



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1281609268202889216



 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1281614350264893441

[CrazyC83]

How is Fay still classifiable as purely Tropical in nature? If anything it could easily be Post-Tropical in my opinion on the 5pm advisory. Not to mention The Weather Channel is comparing it to notable Nor’easters!

It is clearly non-frontal though and there is still deep convection. Subtropical might be a better classification, but I would disagree on post-tropical.

[Do_For_Love]

Starting to lighten up here and the rain has slowed up a lot, just coming down lightly now. Seems like Fay is all but moved out of Delaware. Interestingly though, the wind seems to have actually picked up a bit in the last half an hour.

[GCANE]

There was a brief period where the cumulus over east VA developed gravity waves indicating an uptick in unstable air.
It then got ingested into Fay.
Cumulus is now building over the surface vort.
Looks like its going to track just offshore the coast of Delaware.

[GCANE]

It took that hard left and then seems to have stalled a bit.

https://i.imgur.com/dooqMb4.png

Well, that line appears to be following the eddy inside the LLC that is now consolidating said circulation tighter around it, and, while Fay may have slowed down slightly, the general motion of the system is still NNE.

OT from your comment, but this storm has been absolutely gorgeous visually. I'm appreciating it before it begins to degrade over land later today.

If its on the surface, the eddy is the track.

[Hammy]

Track and satellite appearance remind me of Danielle in 1992. Not common we see tropical storms ride up the coast here, especially if they're not long trackers that came from further south.

[NDG]

It took that hard left and then seems to have stalled a bit.

https://i.imgur.com/dooqMb4.png

Typical stair stepping when an LLC is part of a broader circulation.

[TheStormExpert]

Alright it might not be Tropical but Subtropical though it’s behaving like a Nor’easter minus the snow.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1281671173022060546

[TheStormExpert]

Track and satellite appearance remind me of Danielle in 1992. Not common we see tropical storms ride up the coast here, especially if they're not long trackers that came from further south.

Yeah Fay’s due north track is uncommon. Used to seeing a track more northeasterly. Hopefully this is not a precursor of what’s to come this season especially for the Carolinas and places north.

[TheStormExpert]

What are the chances that the sustained -NAO is the reason behind why we’re seeing Fay? Just like during the winter season with a -NAO and Nor’easters.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

We should have landfall by the 5pm update, but this thing has continued to surprise me, so we'll see what it does.

Low-level clouds are improving and the system seems to be making a late push at some improvement in structure, but that's not really going to matter much. Still nice to look at, though.

[weathaguyry]

Tide is not going out as much as it should be here on Southern Long Island, this will be an interesting few hours as the center passes directly to my west

[wxman57]

Coastal obs and the lack of any heavy squalls offshore indicate that Fay no longer has any TS winds. I see recon is on the way. That should confirm it. Remember, without squalls, FL winds will be much higher than surface winds. Max winds along the coast of NJ and Long Island I'm seeing are 20 kts. Fay is probably at 25-30 kts now. Oh, I just saw a 25kt wind ob on the north coast of Long Island. Not sure what station.

[plasticup]

https://ny.water.usgs.gov/rt/pub/01311143_z_002400.gif

Tide is not going out as much as it should be here on Southern Long Island, this will be an interesting few hours as the center passes directly to my west

Looks like at most 2 feet of surge. Probably less. Will that be a problem?

[wxman57]

https://ny.water.usgs.gov/rt/pub/01311143_z_002400.gif

Tide is not going out as much as it should be here on Southern Long Island, this will be an interesting few hours as the center passes directly to my west

Looks like at most 2 feet of surge. Probably less. Will that be a problem?

Tides 1-2 ft above normal shouldn't cause any significant issues.