2020 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development this weekend, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system moves
westward well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better
defined since yesterday. Some further organization of this system
is possible during the next few days while it drifts generally
northward. By late this week, environmental conditions are expected
to become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS turns the future biggie to a wimpy.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS literally has nothing after Cristina till day 11. Unbelievable.

[Kingarabian]

Not surprised. Hopefully the Euro will save us the season.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF somewhat weaker but still there.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS brings it back as wel peaks it around 970mb so this means its the strongest in 4 runs.
Has a low rider on this run and manages to get it SE of Hawaii and ends up getting shredded in the CPAC.

[aspen]

With Cristina’s upgrade to 45 kt/1001 mbar, the entire EPac has a total Instantaneous Cyclone Energy (ICE) score of 8.28 units. Not only is that pathetically low, but it’s the exact same ICE as Arthur, and the Atlantic is currently at 23.59 units.

It took the EPac over six weeks to match the ICE from the Atlantic’s very first storm. Pathetic.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form early next week while the system moves westward well south of
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS actually has 2 systems in the next 8-10 days. Both straight runners. I don't have much faith though.

[aspen]

18z GFS actually has 2 systems in the next 8-10 days. Both straight runners. I don't have much faith though.

My faith in the EPac will die with Cristina, if it fails to break 60 kt.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 090509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A nearly stationary broad area of low pressure located about 900
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing a limited amount of shower activity.
Environmental conditions are anticipated to become increasingly
unfavorable during the next day or so, and development of this
system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while the system moves westward well
south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristina, located just south of Socorro Island.

1. A strong tropical wave over central America is expected to move
over the far eastern Pacific by the weekend. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression will likely form early next week while the
system moves quickly westward well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[aspen]

The 10/70 disturbance is going to be quite interesting to watch. It’ll remain at a lower latitude and within a region of higher SSTs and OHC, but it’ll also be moving fast, which could make the effects of shear worse (barreling straight into winds going in the opposite direction, for example).

The models are also all over the place with this. GFS takes so long to develop, while the Euro has a TC in only 72 hours. Neither are as aggressive with this as they were with Cristina, though.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristina, located about 150 miles west of Socorro Island.

1. A strong tropical wave has emerged over the far eastern Pacific
just off the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression will likely form early next week while it moves
quickly westward well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristina, located a couple hundred miles west of Socorro
Island.

1. Showers and thunderstorms extending a few hundred miles west of the
coast of Guatemala are associated with a strong tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression will likely form early next
week while the system moves quickly westward well south of the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto

[Kingarabian]

Still a long way out but the models are keying in on a track towards the Hawaiian Islands for that one. The delayed development is playing a role in that track. The track that the GFS and Euro+EPS is probably the only type of track for an EPAC crossover to threaten Hawaii during a non warm-Enso season as it stays over warm waters longer -- especially this early in the season. Fortunately the TUTT will likely be in place over Hawaii as it usually is and will likely shred anything that comes close to it.

Edit: 18z GFS drops it.
From the latest model runs, Euro is the only model that develops it.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions
are expected to be generally favorable for the development of a
tropical depression through early next week while the system moves
quickly westward well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

[Yellow Evan]

Most recent runs for the relatively reliable global models have the 20/70, and whenever the GFS has dropped it, it has come back within 1-2 runs. However, with the increasingly hostile background state and given how this year is going, not to mention the fairly low latitude, I have some doubts.

[Kingarabian]

Pretty much very model other than Euro has backed off.