WPAC: Depression 99W - Dissipated

[Nancy Smar]

99W INVEST 200711 0000 18.0N 131.0E WPAC 15 0

[mrbagyo]

uh, finally we have an INVEST!
I'm celebrating for the mere presence of an INVEST

[Hayabusa]

The one the GFS that have been kind of trying to "develop" in its near term forecast runs, so I am not surprised this got tagged as an invest and latest Euro run is more stronger and its ensembles showing TS strength

[Nancy Smar]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 17N 132E WNW SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

[1900hurricane]

I leave for a week of vacation tomorrow, and a semi-healthy invest is designated. Yep, everything checks out.

[shah83]

CMC 12z shows it dumping even more water along the MeiYu front before the ridge finally moves in to dry out East Asia...

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.2N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHWEST OF LEGAZPI,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION ROTATING
ABOUT AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE POSITION
IS PLACED BASED ON A 112022Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE THAT DEPICTS
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A
111800Z RJTD FIX POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE
THAT INVEST 99W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS LUZON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS has a bit more strengthening. 1003/1000mb in their latest runs before weakening.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 128.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 127.5, APPROXIMATELY 341
NM NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION ROTATING ABOUT
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 120427Z AMSR2
89GHZ SATELLITE PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICTS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE
THAT INVEST 99W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Nancy Smar]

ABPW10 PGTW 122300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/122300Z-130600ZJUL2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5N 127.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 125.0E, APPROXIMATELY
196 NM EAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WEAK
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. WEAK, FORMATIVE BANDING IS EVIDENT IN A
121938Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE. INVEST 99W IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE SYST
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE W
BEFORE WEAKENING NORTH OF LUZON WHEREUPON IT WILL DECAY FURTHER UNTIL IT
UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE MEIYU BOUNDARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPM
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO M
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Uh...JMA where are you?

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.8N 125.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 124.6E, APPROXIMATELY
167 NM EAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WEAK
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. WEAK, FORMATIVE BANDING IS EVIDENT IN A
130125Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE. INVEST 99W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPDATED NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS MARGINAL STATE AT BEST OVER THE NEXT
24HRS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TAIWAN INTO
INCREASING VWS THAT IS OFFSET ONLY BY THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER
TAU 24, 99W WILL QUICKLY GET ABSORBED INTO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY (MEIYU). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Extratropical94]

PAGASA named it "Carina".

[euro6208]

99W INVEST
As of 12:00 UTC Jul 13, 2020:

Location: 18.8°N 123.0°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb

[euro6208]

99W INVEST 200713 1800 19.7N 122.1E WPAC 20 1005

[mrbagyo]

Edit : i posted on the wrong thread

[NotSparta]

Easterly shear from the Mei-yu front is really blasting at 99W

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 124.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 120.7E, APPROXIMATELY
106 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. INVEST 99W IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30-40 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATES 15-
20 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING A BROAD CIRCULATION, HOWEVER, SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE RANGE FROM 12-17 KNOTS.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN
ITS MARGINAL STATE AT BEST OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRACK POLEWARD TOWARD TAIWAN INTO INCREASING VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[mrbagyo]