2020 WPAC Season

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Hayabusa
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#101 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:33 am

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And now we have Invest 99W located in that pinkish spot
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#102 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:00 pm

GFS again starting to show some developments of disturbances albeit weak. WPAC trying it's hardest.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#103 Postby aspen » Sat Jul 11, 2020 9:12 pm

The lack of any meaningful activity recently means that, when a system finally gets going in the western half of the basin, it’ll be within a completely untouched region full of high OHC and SST waters. If we do get a single Big One, it’ll probably be a beast even by WPac standards.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#104 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Jul 11, 2020 10:03 pm

Tangentially related:

 https://twitter.com/markniss_/status/1282107479959248897


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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#105 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:53 am

Image

Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#106 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:05 am

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Multiple disturbances.

That Philippine Sea system is interesting and something to watch. Let's see If future runs show this.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#107 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:42 am

Hmm...

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#108 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:30 am

Being Twitted that EURO has less than 50% normal ACE next 32 days. This is getting really crazy.
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#109 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:20 am

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1282491270305329153


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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#110 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:42 am

When will the tropical Western Pacific become active?
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#111 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:49 am

Philippine Sea system was there at 00Z but disappeared in 06Z run.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#112 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:45 am

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#113 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:48 am

It's back.

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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#114 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 14, 2020 7:05 pm

12Z deepest run so far

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18Z Poof :lol:

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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#115 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 14, 2020 7:11 pm

Really low shear 10N extending from the SCS to the dateline.

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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#116 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:04 am

It would be pretty shocking if this July won't produce a named storm/tropical storm as ALL reliably recorded past seasons specially the least active ones had atleast a July tropical storm or up, if that ever happens that would be a record breaking quiet July.

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#117 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:47 am

It probably won't be until early/mid-August that we'll see tropical activity pick up.

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Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#118 Postby aspen » Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:41 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:It probably won't be until early/mid-August that we'll see tropical activity pick up.

https://i.imgur.com/eAd2UkG.gif

With the season nearing its peak, SSTs/OHC remaining high and untouched for weeks, and other conditions becoming favorable, I think there’s a chance that there’ll be an extremely powerful Cat 5 Super Typhoon sometime in August. The WPac is locked and loaded, just waiting for favorable conditions to emerge for something big to explode.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#119 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:20 am

Interesting. 00Z and 06Z GFS has this developing and hitting the Northern Philippines and around Hong Kong. Latest run strongest at 986 mb peak in the SCS.

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00Z

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06Z

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euro6208

Re: 2020 WPAC Season

#120 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:26 am

The aforementioned P.I sea system is back. :lol:

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